Will market volatility and or heath concerns with the virus influence your western hunting plans

[mtmuley]

I'm lucky. I can walk out my front door to my elk spot if I have to. mtmuley

 

[Valley1320]

My money says that it’s going to impact NR odds FAR more than resident odds.

No doubt about that I agree with you there

 

[ImBillT]

I am more concerned than I was when this poll was first posted. Our trip is still on as planned except we will probably camp at night while traveling back and forth rather than getting a room and will have it arranged where our only planned stops while traveling back and forth are for fuel.

YEP

This did play a part in switching my third choice NM deer to a unit that contains some National Forest. I usually put a unit with zero legally accessible BLM, zero National Forest, and very little state land. I either camp in a state park in an adjacent unit or pay for a hotel, depending on which will cost more, the gas or the hotel. With 2-6hr per day spent driving to the state park, there’s too much temptation to go into a gas station to pee or get a drink, and a lot of gas pumps required. I can make a long trip to and from a hunt and be careful, but that unit would be quite a bit more hassle to be careful in.

 

[Kevin W]

Changed my vote from no to maybe. My employer issues new travel restrictions every day. As of right now I can request special permission to cross state lines, but even then if I have contact with any person who has so much as a cold I am locked out of work for 2 weeks in mandatory home isolation. I only have so much sick leave I can burn through. I am doubtful of going on my July WY scouting trip, but am optimistic I can still hunt come Sept out of state. Really depends on how long this stuff lasts and there are models showing a couple months and other models showing 18 months.

The post above is a mirror of my thoughts / plan. I'm from Iowa as well, my brother and I along with our sons have put in for a Wyoming draw in each of the last 6 years. We all buy points and pick a hunt to try for each fall with at least 2 of us as hunters. So for the past 6 seasons we were always in the draw and also building points. We have been able to draw 5 of the 6 years and go out to Wyoming to hunt.
If my work shuts down for an extended period of time my sick time has to get used first (3 weeks worth (1 week is standard issue plus 2 more my company just issued for this Covid 19 crap)). Then my Vacation time would get used, I have 4 weeks worth of vacation time. My sons are students with part time jobs so they have no trouble getting time off work for a hunt.
So if a shut down at my work occurs soon and lasts more than 5 weeks I will pull my sons elk apps from Wyoming as I just wont have the vacation time available for the hunt this fall. I put the limit at 5 weeks because from today 7 weeks puts me past the Wyoming deadline to pull an application. So I will make the decision to leave or pull apps in the first couple days of May.
I too was planning a summer scouting trip which I absolutely won't do now.
IMO the non resident draw odds will certainly be effected by this COVID 19 pandemic, I believe non resident points to draw a tag has a greater likely hood to recede instead of gain creep in Wyoming knowing 40% of the tags are reserved for non residents to draw.
I would not expect resident draw odds to be impacted at all.

 

[cur dog]

Pennsylvania's ultra liberal governor has shut down all "non essential" business in the state. Most small business owners, and folks in the construction trades, are out of work. Its leaving some of us wondering how we will make ends meet, and how long this will last. If your state is still open, pray your governor doesn't do the same, to you.
Its not about fear of travel and potential exposure. I predict plenty of people wont be headed west this season because they cant afford high priced tags and travel expenses.
Good luck to everyone!

 

[MTGomer]

I’m not about to pitch this to my wife.... BUT her and her sisters and mom are/were going to Hawaii in early May.

If this keeps up, we’ll have a few thousand more dollars. Could that be another hunting trip!? That’s the part I’m not bringing up outside this forum

 

[Yooper906]

Still planning on spring bear in Montana, since tags have already been purchased. Thankfully, both my wife and I are considered "essential." Michigan still has yet to do a complete shutdown, however I do see metro Detroit area being shutdown sometime this week. Elk season is still a go too.

 

[Flatlander3]

It still baffles me on how the h*ll some f'ing strong flu can make this big of an economic impact

 

[Pucky Freak]

It still baffles me on how the h*ll some f'ing strong flu can make this big of an economic impact

I can’t wrap my mind around it either. There’s really no reference point for it in living memory for anyone alive today. In the absence of drastic containment and mitigation efforts (which halt the global economy) tens of millions of people die.

 

[NEWHunter]

It still baffles me on how the h*ll some f'ing strong flu can make this big of an economic impact

Pretty simple really. It’s an extremely contagious disease that has a fatality rate, as far as we know, in the low single digits. Society has deemed this kind of death rate unacceptable. Hence the shutdowns and the ensuing economic impact.

 

[matt0550]

Pretty simple really. It’s an extremely contagious disease that has a fatality rate, as far as we know, in the low single digits. Society has deemed this kind of death rate unacceptable. Hence the shutdowns and the ensuing economic impact.

You do make it sound simple. It's always more difficult to see things mechanically rather than emotionally.

 

[brownbear932008]

Pretty simple really. It’s an extremely contagious disease that has a fatality rate, as far as we know, in the low single digits. Society has deemed this kind of death rate unacceptable. Hence the shutdowns and the ensuing economic impact.

I will put it in HT perspective. I have a higher chance of drawing a breaks sheep tag in Montana than contracting this flu and dying. There fixed it.

 

[Flatlander3]

Pretty simple really. It’s an extremely contagious disease that has a fatality rate, as far as we know, in the low single digits. Society has deemed this kind of death rate unacceptable. Hence the shutdowns and the ensuing economic impact.

At the very beginning I thought it was blown WAY out of proportion, and still kinda do. Not sure if I'm that insensitive or are others with me? Of course I worry about my job, pregnant wife, young daughter, and elderly family getting it, but is it truly any different than one of the contingent flu's to shut everything down? I get the flatten the curve and all but it's a .5% flu death rate vs. 3% covid?

I wish everyone the best through these strange and hard times.

 

[NEWHunter]

is it truly any different than one of the contingent flu's to shut everything down? I get the flatten the curve and all but it's a .5% flu death rate vs. 3% covid?

I wish everyone the best through these strange and hard times.

Not trying to start a disagreement, but it’s quite different. The flu is more like a 0.10% death rate, which is materially different than 3%. If everything isn’t shut down like it is, the health system in this country would very likely be overwhelmed and that low single digit death rate could jump to mid to high single digits like Italy. And the longer we can run this thing out, the closer we can get to better treatments, vaccines, and hopefully flu like fatality rates.

This economic impact is the price we have to pay to help protect the elderly and vulnerable and prevent the above from happening. My Dad has MS pretty bad and falls squarely into the at risk/underlying category. If a couple hundred grand in paper losses is the price I have to pay to have my Dad around for several more hunting seasons or my wife’s 85 year old grandma around for another Christmas or two, I’m happy to pay it.

 

[Flatlander3]

Not trying to start a disagreement, but it’s quite different. The flu is more like a 0.10% death rate, which is materially different than 3%. If everything isn’t shut down like it is, the health system in this country would very likely be overwhelmed and that low single digit death rate could jump to mid to high single digits like Italy. And the longer we can run this thing out, the closer we can get to better treatments, vaccines, and hopefully flu like fatality rates.

This economic impact is the price we have to pay to help protect the elderly and vulnerable and prevent the above from happening. My Dad has MS pretty bad and falls squarely into the at risk/underlying category. If a couple hundred grand in paper losses is the price I have to pay to have my Dad around for several more hunting seasons or my wife’s 85 year old grandma around for another Christmas or two, I’m happy to pay it.

Very good points, and thank you for the more accurate stats. I was just referring to here say and am by no means an expert in the manner. Crazy where we are at right now in the world.

 

[matt0550]

Not trying to start a disagreement, but it’s quite different. The flu is more like a 0.10% death rate, which is materially different than 3%. If everything isn’t shut down like it is, the health system in this country would very likely be overwhelmed and that low single digit death rate could jump to mid to high single digits like Italy. And the longer we can run this thing out, the closer we can get to better treatments, vaccines, and hopefully flu like fatality rates.

This economic impact is the price we have to pay to help protect the elderly and vulnerable and prevent the above from happening. My Dad has MS pretty bad and falls squarely into the at risk/underlying category. If a couple hundred grand in paper losses is the price I have to pay to have my Dad around for several more hunting seasons or my wife’s 85 year old grandma around for another Christmas or two, I’m happy to pay it.

I'm definitely with you here...my belief (just my opinion - based on nothing but my gut feeling and uneducated position) is that the lock down is an attempt to space out the cases so that more patients can and will be saved. This may not work at all - the treatments being tested may not work - the infection rate could rise out of control even given our best efforts. BUT you miss 100% of the pitches you dont swing at, and for me personally I feel like we gotta try.

 

[BrooksRanger]

I'm still planning on a Spring bear hunt here in Southeast Alaska. Currently most air taxis are continuing to fly people as well as cargo because the cruise ship industry in Southeast is taking a dive until at least July (Who knows how long afterwards?) so they need all the revenue they can get. Most air taxis are reducing hours for regular pilots, and limiting seasonal hires as well. I just learned this morning that some air taxis are only flying cargo, which may restrict the ability of some people to get out to their hunting areas, myself included if it gets to that point. In addition, as it's been noted elsewhere, many of the smaller bush communities and Native villages are trying to limit exposure from people outside their communities that could be carriers. This is something that could affect not just non residents flying up to Alaska to hunt, but also residents as well. Finally, just to note but anyone flying up to Alaska is being asked to self quarantine before going out in public currently. Not sure how this will play out as the Spring turns to Summer, and to Fall.

 

[ImBillT]

I can’t wrap my mind around it either. There’s really no reference point for it in living memory for anyone alive today. In the absence of drastic containment and mitigation efforts (which halt the global economy) tens of millions of people die.

That death toll is not yet known by any means.

 

[ErictheRed]

The challenge with "death toll" is it assumes a few things (1) numerator known (2) denominator (based on other countries) known and (3) timing of vaccine. We don't really know any of these. Let's assume 1/2 our population is infected 165,000,000 and low death rate of .002 due to aggressive social distancing and a decent health system. This would yield about 330,000 deaths over 12 months. Note the flu gave us 80,000 deaths in 2017-2018 according to the CDC. Any vaccine would further reduce the death toll. In order to get to .002 which is lower than most rates from around the world, you must assume a bunch of folks had the virus but were never tested. In any case, you can play with any of the three variables and come up with no issue at all to the apocalypse.

 

[Mica Man]

I'm lucky. I can walk out my front door to my elk spot if I have to. mtmuley

I've got the Idaho version of this and feel pretty damn fortunate!