Who’s Made Money in Energy

[Red-Team 98]

A great 28 months in XLE and VDE.
Biden Administration attack on Energy in US has done very well for XLE and VDE since Jan 2021.
China Reopening later in 2023 will provide a surge for Energy and XLE and VDE.

 

[BigHornRam]

It would be nice if Brandon and his zombie administration would refill the SPR before China invades Taiwan, but they won't.

Living on dividends till the next oil price spike, then cashing in the chips. Interesting times we are living in right now!

 

[noharleyyet]

C'mon man....

A great 28 months in XLE and VDE.
Biden Administration attack on Energy in US has done very well for XLE and VDE since Jan 2021.
China Reopening later in 2023 will provide a surge for Energy and XLE and VDE.

 

[406dn]

I guess, I've made a little money in energy.

When the previous president came into office the stock price of the oil company that I retired from was at $85.89. When he left office the price was $47.89. So, not too good, about $170k loss on paper.

Since the previous president had his reelection stolen from him, the price has gone from $47.89 to ~$115 today. So, about a $300k gain.

Since we are taking pejorative shots at politicians we don't like. I am enjoying the legal difficulties the previous president is enduring, quite a lot to be honest.

 

[Deleted member 18333]

Safe to say 95% of the money I have made in my life has been from Energy.

 

[noharleyyet]

I guess, I've made a little money in energy.

When the previous president came into office the stock price of the oil company that I retired from was at $85.89. When he left office the price was $47.89. So, not too good, about $170k loss on paper.

Since the previous president had his reelection stolen from him, the price has gone from $47.89 to ~$115 today. So, about a $300k gain.

Since we are taking pejorative shots at politicians we don't like. I am enjoying the legal difficulties the previous president is enduring, quite a lot to be honest.

Have you sold under either...

 

[SAJ-99]

It would be nice if Brandon and his zombie administration would refill the SPR before China invades Taiwan, but they won't.

Living on dividends till the next oil price spike, then cashing in the chips. Interesting times we are living in right now!

Interesting take. Two of the SPR sites are undergoing long-awaited and necessary maintenance, so a refill isn’t always a yes or no decision. And is the SPR’s importance the same as it was now that we produce our own oil with fracking? Sure, when we imported from Saudi Arabia and filled the SPR it was necessary. Now what is the difference between being in the SPR and being in Permian west Texas rock?

Also, might want to stop exporting oil. Just sayin.

 

[BigHornRam]

Interesting take. Two of the SPR sites are undergoing long-awaited and necessary maintenance, so a refill isn’t always a yes or no decision. And is the SPR’s importance the same as it was now that we produce our own oil with fracking? Sure, when we imported from Saudi Arabia and filled the SPR it was necessary. Now what is the difference between being in the SPR and being in Permian west Texas rock?

Also, might want to stop exporting oil. Just sayin.

So why did Biden sell from the SPR then? Mostly to China. How stupid is this?

Biden’s SPR Drawdown Big Win For Beijing

Chinese-owned companies have lapped up oil from America’s emergency stockpile since the Biden administration decided to sell 180 million barrels last year to lower prices ahead of the midterm elections.

www.forbes.com

"As a result, China is now gorging on cheap Russian barrels trading at roughly $40 per barrel below the international crude benchmark Brent. So, while the United States and its allies are paying about $85 per barrel for oil, China is spending about $45 to import Russian barrels.

That puts America at a considerable competitive disadvantage to China, particularly since Biden’s climate agenda continues to undermine new domestic oil production that could keep prices down in the long term."

 

[406dn]

Have you sold under either...

Nope, just collected dividends, so everything is just on paper. I do prefer a higher stock price, generally.

 

[noharleyyet]

So why did Biden sell from the SPR then? Mostly to China. How stupid is this?

Biden’s SPR Drawdown Big Win For Beijing

Chinese-owned companies have lapped up oil from America’s emergency stockpile since the Biden administration decided to sell 180 million barrels last year to lower prices ahead of the midterm elections.

www.forbes.com

....coz the holes needed fixin'....it was gottdampt briliance on Joey Two Scoop's part. (my pejorative take)

 

[Deleted member 28227]

C'mon man....

 

[406dn]

Regarding exporting oil, natural gas, coal, whatever...do not expect energy companies to be an ally. They by far prefer to move it to where it is most profitable. It seems to me that most of the time, that is how capitalism is supposed to work.

Regarding refilling the SPR, it seems to me to do it when oil prices are below a longer term average. Presently oil prices are pretty high. If I was in charge, we'd be filling the reserve when supply was plentiful, exceeding demand.

For the record, I did not concur with the decision to draw from the reserve to limit the rise in the price of oil. I think it was done for political considerations, too many things are.

 

[rogerthat]

I have however it’s opposite of what your politics want it to be. Has been that way for the last 20 years or so. Accumulate o&g under repub admins and sell under demo admins…rinse and repeat. I liquidated a couple months ago

 

[SAJ-99]

So why did Biden sell from the SPR then? Mostly to China. How stupid is this?

The admin announced sales from the SPR to supplement the loss of Russian oil. It was a bandaid to a broken bone. I haven't read any analysis that said it made an immediate impact on the price of oil other than traders pushing around the price on the news. @wllm might have better insight. So my short answer is for the political narrative. Biden would be criticized by if he did nothing. Hell, he got blamed for gas prices on the other thread. Politics these days is about choosing what you want to be criticized for. Inaction is low on the list, even if what you do isn't really all that impactful. I agree that they should be refilling it, but we can question its importance as anything except a tool for the political narrative.

The "mostly to China" view is an odd way to look at it. Biden didn't remove the prohibition on exports. We have to remember that the US energy markets are run by capitalistic companies, not the government. Companies pump (and the Govt from the SPR) into the pipeline and other countries get to buy it at US market price. But I think I get your point. Yes I think it is stupid. It is particularly stupid if you champion "energy independence", but global political stability is a fragile thing and profits make the US go 'round.

As for Russian oil, as I said in the previous threads, as consumers we want that oil to hit the market or we will be paying $7/gal for gasoline. China (and India) buddied up with Russia to get that cheap oil. Again, we want this if we want to avoid a global economic collapse and resulting political turmoil. The world is addicted to carbon energy. Going cold-turkey is not really an option. It is not an approve or disapprove decision.

To many Americans (and from our debates on HT, i'm betting you), this is all fodder for political narrative. The OP said "Biden Administration attack on Energy in US..." is the same. This Administration has issued a record number of leases on Federally-owned lands. That is an interesting way to define "attack". To offset, the administration placates environmentalist by placing bans on drilling in areas (offshore, ANWR) that would be too expensive for companies to make a profit anyway. We all can pick apart data to fit our desired narrative, but we can't run from reality forever.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

The admin announced sales from the SPR to supplement the loss of Russian oil. It was a bandaid to a broken bone. I haven't read any analysis that said it made an immediate impact on the price of oil other than traders pushing around the price on the news. @wllm might have better insight. So my short answer is for the political narrative. Biden would be criticized by if he did nothing. Hell, he got blamed for gas prices on the other thread. Politics these days is about choosing what you want to be criticized for. Inaction is low on the list, even if what you do isn't really all that impactful. I agree that they should be refilling it, but we can question its importance as anything except a tool for the political narrative.

I'm sure it lowered prices at the pump a bit... but other wise agree, kinda absurd folks blaming Biden for gas prices and bitching about using the SPR. I'd add the Saudi reduction is due in part to the US choosing to not refill the reserve.

The OG industry is subject to inflation like everyone else and $75 Oil in 2023 isn't what it was in 2016, so operators whether they are countries or companies want to see it go higher.

Rs want cheap gasoline but the OG industry to thrive, those goals are at odds.
Ds want to stop OG companies from producing oil, but also want the price of Oil to be low... again at odds.

Seems like supply and demand confuses everyone.

Right now the focus for the US is on the Permian for Oil and the Haynesville for Gas, all other basins are taking a back seat. Prices are anemic for oil, terrible for gas, and capital is expensive.

If it's a hot summer and we get some LNG online gas might recover, but it's hard to say what will happen. Certainly there is path to $100 oil and $4 gas, but also not...

Either way it's not going to be the rebound explosion of the post pandemic. We had a black swan event and those left standing reaped the rewards.

 

[406dn]

Recently the Biden Administration approved a go ahead on the Willow Creek area in Alaska. This was hailed by the Alaskan delegation, panned by some on the left. He likely will get little political advantage from it, but it makes sense to me.

Just is proximity to Prudhoe bay, makes the infrastructure costs to tap into the Alaskan pipeline minimal, sorta.

The truth is most oil plays are a guesstimate into a crystal ball into the future. Some of them are decade in the making for the bigger fields.

Biden administration approves controversial Alaskan oil project

The decision will allow ConocoPhillips to develop three drilling sites at its proposed Willow project on federal land in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.

www.politico.com

 

[Irishman]

Energy is the area that I've always lost in. Did okay in everything but Energy. Like Rogerthat pointed out, it tends to work in the opposite direction of what you think it would based on politics.

 

[BigHornRam]

Recently the Biden Administration approved a go ahead on the Willow Creek area in Alaska. This was hailed by the Alaskan delegation, panned by some on the left. He likely will get little political advantage from it, but it makes sense to me.

Just is proximity to Prudhoe bay, makes the infrastructure costs to tap into the Alaskan pipeline minimal, sorta.

The truth is most oil plays are a guesstimate into a crystal ball into the future. Some of them are decade in the making for the bigger fields.

Biden administration approves controversial Alaskan oil project

The decision will allow ConocoPhillips to develop three drilling sites at its proposed Willow project on federal land in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.

www.politico.com

Biden is not running in 2024. Newsom is your guy. Based on the expert analysis here, I should keep my oil stocks if Newsom wins the Presidency.

Governor Newsom Unveils Stronger Proposal to Hold Big Oil Accountable | Governor of California

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Governor Newsom’s special session proposal to hold Big Oil accountable now includes a dedicated, year-round independent watchdog to root out price gouging by oil companies.

www.gov.ca.gov

 

[jryoung]

Biden is not running in 2024. Newsom is your guy. Based on the expert analysis here, I should keep my oil stocks if Newsom wins the Presidency.

Governor Newsom Unveils Stronger Proposal to Hold Big Oil Accountable | Governor of California

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Governor Newsom’s special session proposal to hold Big Oil accountable now includes a dedicated, year-round independent watchdog to root out price gouging by oil companies.

www.gov.ca.gov

Gavin is all smoke, he tried to rail against PG&E then crafted legislation to protect them after they admitted to killing 84 people.

This "holding big oil accountable" is the equivalent of getting Mexico to pay for a wall.

 

[rogerthat]

Biden is not running in 2024. Newsom is your guy. Based on the expert analysis here, I should keep my oil stocks if Newsom wins the Presidency.

Governor Newsom Unveils Stronger Proposal to Hold Big Oil Accountable | Governor of California

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Governor Newsom’s special session proposal to hold Big Oil accountable now includes a dedicated, year-round independent watchdog to root out price gouging by oil companies.

www.gov.ca.gov

You probably would get that next oil spike your waiting for