Utah 2020 Draw Results Thread

[BuzzH]

Utah is the one state that I decided long ago was an "in it for the long haul" state application strategy. I gained a bunch of points for sheep and deer on the cheap and then got suckered into applying for elk, bison, pronghorn, and general deer points when they let people apply for all of those. Currently have 22 deer and 22 desert sheep points quite a few for the rest. Have toyed with the idea of burning the deer points since I've had enough to draw some of the better deer units...but just cant do it.

I have time to decide, Utah is likely a state I'll start hunting when I can pay for the tags with social security checks.

 

[dwatling]

Got my unsuccessful email, iit's what I expected though.

 

[marksjeep]

Email came through, success on Bookcliffs Little Creek cow bison. The mules and I will be working out and getting a few trips into the area this summer to scout. Congrats to everyone who drew tags this year!

 

[runningmt]

Got the Unsuccessful email on desert and RM sheep. Bought another point for elk.

 

[Big Fin]

Reading Buzz's comment about how long it might take before he draws, I pulled out the information from the 2019 draw results and looked just at non-resident elk. The idea was to get a feel for how many people will jump in from the sidelines who are buying points, or who might have a lot of points and decide to burn them in a different unit than they had been holding out for, both situations creating point creep.

I could do this same exercise for any species and the results would be the same. I could do it for most any state on a preference point system that allows point buying and the result would be the same.

Just for fun, I picked the 15-point level. Let's say you've been in this game for 15 years, which is a longer period than most people likely expect when they start into the application process. Some interesting stats to consider, even at 15 points. Yes, some assumptions and averages are used, but still an interesting exercise.

There are 818 people with 16+ points who were just buying points. They are all ahead of you at 15 points. Someday, many of them will likely jump off the sidelines and grab a bonus tag just when you thought this might be your year.

There are 1,194 applicants with 16+ points who actually applied for a tag, all ahead of you, and only 85 of those people drew, leaving 1,109 of those people going into the 2020 draw. Add the point buyers and the remaining unsuccessful applicants after the 2019 draw, and you end up with 1,927 folks ahead of you in the 2020 draw, even if you had 15 points going into the 2019 draw.

Then, you have a bunch of people at your 15-point level who you are competing with when they apply for the same tag as you do. In 2019, 243 of your fellow 15-point holders just bought a point. Of the 425 who actually applied, 17 drew, leaving another 408 to join you in the 2020 draw. That puts 651 folks at your point level.

Having 15 points in the 2019 draw, or 16 going into the 2020 draw is still way back in the line. It will take about 20 years to plow through all the folks with more points than you. The folks in your point layer will be whittled down to about 300 remaining applicants by the time 20 years passes. So, for those sitting on 15 points last year, or 16 points going into 2020, there will be 300 of you still waiting for a tag in the 2040 draw hoping they take your 36 points in the 2040 draw.

Those numbers get a lot worse at every point level as you work your way down from 15 points in 2019.

If you are at the 10 point level in 2019, you jumped in on the year which Utah started letting non-residents apply for all species. You are in a huge bubble (2,286) of people at your point level. And you have 6,212 people ahead of you. At the rate of tags being drawn, it will take 39 years to plow through most the folks ahead of you. In those 39 years, your point pool should be whittled down to 1,650 fellow applicants at your point level.

So, 39 years from now, those of you who had 10 points last year, 11 points this year, will finally be in the running for bonus permits in the 2059 Utah limited entry elk draw. You will have 1,650 people at your point level to compete with for those 100 bonus tags, so your odds will finally get up to 6% in 2059.

Interesting to note it will take about 20 years to plow through the folks above 15 points and about the same time to plow through the next five layers of point holders. Ouch! Sorry to be such a downer.

Bonus Point buyers.


People who actually applied.

 

[rachele39]

Was clearing out emails today on my phone when this popped up. It must be real, they hit my card for $1500. Called Utah to make sure my new card update cleared and said the system is down. Checked my card and it’s there. Never thought I’d draw one while I can still hunt. Feeling guilty and unworthy but I’ll get over that eventually.

 

[idahohuntr]

So, 39 years from now, those of you who had 10 points last year, 11 points this year, will finally be in the running for bonus permits in the 2059 Utah limited entry elk draw.

The human lifespan will be the only cap on point creep.

I think I'm in part of this cohort that could be in the running by 2059; however, part of my retirement plan if I have a big point balance...move and establish residency in those states where I have a lot of points so I can improve my odds. My wife doesn't know about this yet...I've got some time to sell her on it

 

[Western Traveler1]

Going by Big Fin’s numbers how many of you are going to complain about the old guy with bad knees when I draw my the sheep tag at 112 years old?
Still no notifications for me.

 

[timmy]

Expensive lottery tickets can’t expect to draw.

 

[Big Fin]

Expensive lottery tickets can’t expect to draw.

Yes, raffle tickets they are. Knowing someone will win the raffle we feel there is a chance, so we toss our name in the hat. For me, I blow money on some really dumb stuff and in my personal reconciliation of priorities money spent on these state run raffles is a better use of that money than other stupid items I buy that will be donated to Goodwill or sold at a rubbish sale upon my death.

Call me a sucker, a fool who is easily parted with his hunting money. A sucker who one time got lucky and beat the odds to draw a Henry Mountain bison tag.

 

[NoWiser]

Yup, at 36 years old with 8 points for elk and deer, I know I won’t live long enough for them to get me a tag. But I don’t gamble, smoke, or chew, and a case of beer lasts me more than a year. So, I’m ok with throwing money at the Utah draw. At least that’s how I justify it in my head. I expect to beat the odds at some point in my life and have a fun hunt there.

 

[brownbear932008]

Those numbers really are depressing for sure. Luckily UT is still affordable for people if that ever changes so will the odds. A lot of states are going above people's worth versus chance of drawing line these days. Hopefully UT stays out of that or people will drop it from the list. I know I would considering I'm at 4 points and a late arrival with those terrible odds. Did I mention how much I despise point games by the way?

 

[runningmt]

Yes, raffle tickets they are. Knowing someone will win the raffle we feel there is a chance, so we toss our name in the hat. For me, I blow money on some really dumb stuff and in my personal reconciliation of priorities money spent on these state run raffles is a better use of that money than other stupid items I buy that will be donated to Goodwill or sold at a rubbish sale upon my death.

Call me a sucker, a fool who is easily parted with his hunting money. A sucker who one time got lucky and beat the odds to draw a Henry Mountain bison tag.

That’s the hope that keeps us trying. A hunter keeps trying to draw a unicorn tag with the hopes of drawing in the same way that an angler casts a fly, lure or bait with the hope of catching one.

 

[BuzzH]

Another thing to make sure of when you get 20+ years deep into a point system, double and triple check your applications before hitting the submit button. One false move in the process and you just shot a lot of time, effort, and years down the drain on a tag you don't want.

I've never done it, but know people that have.

 

[nontyp]

Reading Buzz's comment about how long it might take before he draws, I pulled out the information from the 2019 draw results and looked just at non-resident elk. The idea was to get a feel for how many people will jump in from the sidelines who are buying points, or who might have a lot of points and decide to burn them in a different unit than they had been holding out for, both situations creating point creep.

I could do this same exercise for any species and the results would be the same. I could do it for most any state on a preference point system that allows point buying and the result would be the same.

Just for fun, I picked the 15-point level. Let's say you've been in this game for 15 years, which is a longer period than most people likely expect when they start into the application process. Some interesting stats to consider, even at 15 points. Yes, some assumptions and averages are used, but still an interesting exercise.

There are 818 people with 16+ points who were just buying points. They are all ahead of you at 15 points. Someday, many of them will likely jump off the sidelines and grab a bonus tag just when you thought this might be your year.

There are 1,194 applicants with 16+ points who actually applied for a tag, all ahead of you, and only 85 of those people drew, leaving 1,109 of those people going into the 2020 draw. Add the point buyers and the remaining unsuccessful applicants after the 2019 draw, and you end up with 1,927 folks ahead of you in the 2020 draw, even if you had 15 points going into the 2019 draw.

Then, you have a bunch of people at your 15-point level who you are competing with when they apply for the same tag as you do. In 2019, 243 of your fellow 15-point holders just bought a point. Of the 425 who actually applied, 17 drew, leaving another 408 to join you in the 2020 draw. That puts 651 folks at your point level.

Having 15 points in the 2019 draw, or 16 going into the 2020 draw is still way back in the line. It will take about 20 years to plow through all the folks with more points than you. The folks in your point layer will be whittled down to about 300 remaining applicants by the time 20 years passes. So, for those sitting on 15 points last year, or 16 points going into 2020, there will be 300 of you still waiting for a tag in the 2040 draw hoping they take your 36 points in the 2040 draw.

Those numbers get a lot worse at every point level as you work your way down from 15 points in 2019.

If you are at the 10 point level in 2019, you jumped in on the year which Utah started letting non-residents apply for all species. You are in a huge bubble (2,286) of people at your point level. And you have 6,212 people ahead of you. At the rate of tags being drawn, it will take 39 years to plow through most the folks ahead of you. In those 39 years, your point pool should be whittled down to 1,650 fellow applicants at your point level.

So, 39 years from now, those of you who had 10 points last year, 11 points this year, will finally be in the running for bonus permits in the 2059 Utah limited entry elk draw. You will have 1,650 people at your point level to compete with for those 100 bonus tags, so your odds will finally get up to 6% in 2059.

Interesting to note it will take about 20 years to plow through the folks above 15 points and about the same time to plow through the next five layers of point holders. Ouch! Sorry to be such a downer.

Bonus Point buyers.
View attachment 140382

People who actually applied.
View attachment 140389

Don’t Listen to Randy’s fancy math. My hillbilly math says that you can draw a rifle tag with 2 points.

 

[Mtnhunter1]

Sure makes me appreciate my Utah archery deer adventures in the 80's and early 90's! Utah was an amazing place to chase early season velvet muleys and all I had to do was swing by the Salt Lake office and buy my tags. I did apply for the Book Cliffs and Elk Ridge the last two years that I hunted Utah......almost reluctant to say this but I drew both on my first year applying!

20+ years of playing the points game for a deer hunt is just mind blowing to me......

 

[BuzzH]

20+ years of playing the points game for a deer hunt is just mind blowing to me......

Very true and I agree, seems ridiculous. Probably doesn't make sense to apply for a deer tag for 30+ years, but when I started applying you could pick 2 species. I was primarily applying for sheep, so figured I'd just as well apply for deer too.

Trouble is you get 10-12 years in and can draw some of the mediocre deer units, but other hunts conflict. You have 2-3 or more elk tags, 2-3 deer tags, 2-3 pronghorn tags, a few buddies or family members with tags, etc. every year. Time becomes an issue to "do it all".

Its easy to just apply for deer on the Henries or Pauns and go for the gold. Really makes less sense to blow 12+ points on a mediocre unit when a person can hunt similar, or even better quality, every year as a resident.

Too late to turn back now and I'm in that crappiest of crap places: too many to burn on most units, and not enough for the best.

 

[2rocky]

Buzz I'm in the same no-mans-points-land. I've seen a lot of similarities between the Utah point system and California's. General opportunity that is low success, crowded and generally unappreciated. LE hunts that are pretty much only available to the max point pool.

UT is my lottery. If I draw I'm likely not going to get back into buying points.

 

[ImBillT]

Probably getting out of UT. It was my one long shot state. The random odds were long under the old rules where the first tag was in the bonus pool. With the first tag going to the priority pool, the bonus odds got even worse...twice as bad in most cases. The license was cheap, the tags were cheap, and the general deer tag, plus moose made the total package acceptable to me despite the extremely long odds. With the price increase, I’m not willing to pay that much for general deer, and with the bonus odds being cut so drastically while I’m behind any possibility of catching up on the priority points, I’m probably out...I have a year to think about it. I’m sure UT will start looking better once the tags in my pocket are no longer valid.

 

[Zim]

Ya the point savers really stagnated my long term Utah plan haha. Stuck with 24 deer points targeting any Pauns tag, any weapon but picked archery last few years. My odds have actually diminished each year, always one point saver jumping in taking the lone remaining preference tag. So I have had no mathematical chance. And the number in my point pool has increased each year. The points required to draw the next tier of units down has been rising as well. May end up having to burn them in San Juan or some other unit I know nothing about. No tag anywhere this year so far, but my virus job reassignment is not as flexible anyway. And my wife’s plan to spend Sept-Dec back at her China condo is up in the air as well. No flights. Might be best just to stay home this fall.