Ukraine / Russia

Back to the current war. Looks like military leaders are meeting allies in Germany. This has probably been happening for awhile now, but that does not sound very diplomatic, but rather prep for an offensive. crazy times we are in.
 
KB_ said:
Back to the current war. Looks like military leaders are meeting allies in Germany. This has probably been happening for awhile now, but that does not sound very diplomatic, but rather prep for an offensive. crazy times we are in.
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Diplomatic interests, strategic interests go hand in glove.
 
VikingsGuy said:
It's way worse being a Vikings fan -- every 7 or 8 years we get to think we have a chance only to fail. Would be easier to just know you are never relavant.
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that or your star quarter back whom most have blamed for everything for the last 10 years, goes to the rams for one year and wins a super bowl.

I saw an article that Russia has shut off gas lines to Poland. Is this a case where Russia is trying to weaken the surrounding country's so they can be attacked too? Or they just saving their fuel for themselves? Interesting.
 
Imagine if tomorrow Zelensky began discussions about relocating and changing his citizenship to New Zealand, then changes his mind. Then does it next year, and again…
#packersfan
 
KB_ said:
I saw an article that Russia has shut off gas lines to Poland. Is this a case where Russia is trying to weaken the surrounding country's so they can be attacked too? Or they just saving their fuel for themselves? Interesting.
Click to expand...
My guess is that they are telling Germany, France, and Italy that if they keep being "unfriendly" the spigots will be turned off. Cutting off Poland was mostly performative, as all of their Russia energy contracts were set to expire end of the year anyway and they weren't renewing as, unlike Germany, they understood the risk of energy reliance on Putin.

Some of the last 5 years have felt like the late 60s/early 70s replaying themselves (with less hair, less LSD, and more well-groomed beards). Maybe Europe will have a natural gas meltdown via Russian embargo like the US had with automotive gas and the Arab embargo. Boy those were fun times - times we seem destined to relive. (and reliving the 60s/70s is better than some who draw parallels to reliving late30s/early40s)
 
VikingsGuy said:
My guess is that they are telling Germany, France, and Italy that if they keep being "unfriendly" the spigots will be turned off. Cutting off Poland was mostly performative, as all of their Russia energy contracts were set to expire end of the year anyway and they weren't renewing as, unlike Germany, they understood the risk of energy reliance on Putin.

Some of the last 5 years have felt like the late 60s/early 70s replaying themselves (with less hair, less LSD, and more well-groomed beards). Maybe Europe will have a natural gas meltdown via Russian embargo like the US had with automotive gas and the Arab embargo. Boy those were fun times - times we seem destined to relive. (and reliving the 60s/70s is better than some who draw parallels to reliving late30s/early40s)
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I don't know, there was a war in the 60s/70s too. That seems like a good way to piss of a bunch of countries and start a world war... oh right.
 
VikingsGuy said:
My guess is that they are telling Germany, France, and Italy that if they keep being "unfriendly" the spigots will be turned off. Cutting off Poland was mostly performative, as all of their Russia energy contracts were set to expire end of the year anyway and they weren't renewing as, unlike Germany, they understood the risk of energy reliance on Putin.

Some of the last 5 years have felt like the late 60s/early 70s replaying themselves (with less hair, less LSD, and more well-groomed beards). Maybe Europe will have a natural gas meltdown via Russian embargo like the US had with automotive gas and the Arab embargo. Boy those were fun times - times we seem destined to relive. (and reliving the 60s/70s is better than some who draw parallels to reliving late30s/early40s)
Click to expand...
Didn't Russia cut off Poland because they refused to pay in Rubles ?

April is the only one here who remembers the 40's and unfortunately for us, she still likes the music from that era ( Friday Music ) ;)

I always though ir would have been fun to have been a teenager during the 60's, but if the last 5 years mirrors that era, then I was wrong ;)

Vikingsguy------Why Moldova ??? thank you
 
Randi said:
Didn't Russia cut off Poland because they refused to pay in Rubles ?

April is the only one here who remembers the 40's and unfortunately for us, she still likes the music from that era ( Friday Music ) ;)

I always though ir would have been fun to have been a teenager during the 60's, but if the last 5 years mirrors that era, then I was wrong ;)

Vikingsguy------Why Moldova ??? thank
Click to expand...

Rubles just a smokescreen/excuse as the contracts call for payment in dollars.

The 60s were a mess - some had fun, some died in a jungle while being called baby-killers at home. [I pause to sincerely thank those HTers who served their nation in Korea and Vietnam]


Putin views inherent Russian destiny to oversee/rule the Slavs/Poles/Rus (and other eastern European) peoples. Moldova fits that "destiny".
 
There are better O&G experts on this forum, but simplistically, when we say German buys gas from Russia - we really mean various German companies (including state entities) buy gas from various Russian companies (including state entities). The buying/selling between companies is done via fairly standardized contracts. The vast majority of O&G contracts are "settled" in dollars.

For example, if Bob agrees to buy three beanie babies from Sue for a certain number of bitcoins via a contract, Bob can't just unilaterally decide to pay Sue in Swiss Francs of equivalent value - it is up to Bob to bear the cost/risk of converting his Francs to bitcoin prior to payment.

But of course, we are now overlaying complex nation-state posturing (sanctions, war, etc) which often throw typical commercial behaviors to the wind.

In this specific scenario, Poland says its gas buyers have binding contracts with Russian gas sellers to settle all payments in $USD. Russia unilaterally changes its mind and says they will only take Rubles (to force Poland to buy Rubles with dollars/euros to prop up foreign demand for rubles) for payment. Poland offers payment in dollars, Russia refuses payment, Russia terminates supply for "non-payment" by Poland, Poland argues it complied with the contract payment terms and Russia is the one who breached the agreement. Poland is technically correct.

Russia wants to make it harder/more expensive for EU to buy gas, prop up the value of the Ruble, and remind western Europe how vulnerable they are to Russian demands.
 
VikingsGuy said:
There are better O&G experts on this forum, but simplistically, when we say German buys gas from Russia - we really mean various German companies (including state entities) buy gas from various Russian companies (including state entities). The buying/selling between companies is done via fairly standardized contracts. The vast majority of O&G contracts are "settled" in dollars.

For example, if Bob agrees to buy three beanie babies from Sue for a certain number of bitcoins via a contract, Bob can't just unilaterally decide to pay Sue in Swiss Francs of equivalent value - it is up to Bob to bear the cost/risk of converting his Francs to bitcoin prior to payment.

But of course, we are now overlaying complex nation-state posturing (sanctions, war, etc) which often throw typical commercial behaviors to the wind.

In this specific scenario, Poland says its gas buyers have binding contracts with Russian gas sellers to settle all payments in $USD. Russia unilaterally changes its mind and says they will only take Rubles (to force Poland to buy Rubles with dollars/euros to prop up foreign demand for rubles) for payment. Poland offers payment in dollars, Russia refuses payment, Russia terminates supply for "non-payment" by Poland, Poland argues it complied with the contract payment terms and Russia is the one who breached the agreement. Poland is technically correct.

Russia wants to make it harder/more expensive for EU to buy gas, prop up the value of the Ruble, and remind western Europe how vulnerable they are to Russian demands.
Click to expand...
AND--if there wasn't a war involved plus sanctions, etc-------would this be decided/settled in an International court or would it still have to be settled somehow between nations without the assist of a third party arbitrator and/or court

Vikingguy==Amber Heard may need you ;)
 
Randi said:
AND--if there wasn't a war involved plus sanctions, etc-------would this be decided/settled in an International court or would it still have to be settled somehow between nations without the assist of a third party arbitrator and/or court

Vikingguy==Amber Heard may need you ;)
Click to expand...
Different trading markets (Ag/O&G/Metals/etc) each have their own dispute resolution framework. I am not sure how O&G is set up.
 
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