Ukraine / Russia

[VikingsGuy]

Within the last hour, President Biden halted the importation of Russian oil and gasoline.
It will squeeze both the Russians and us.

He said that Europe will work toward less dependence on Russian energy.

How this will play out...IDK. But Russia needs the sales of its energy every bit as much as its customers need to buy it.

After this is all over...whenever that is, a 64 million dollar question is how to treat Russian energy on the world markets. They have proven they aren't trustworthy. But, if they have no avenues to generate a valuable export, that leaves them with little to lose by being a bad actor on the world stage.

I asked my wife this morning she thought Putin yet realizes that world history is going to treat him badly. She didn't think he's that point, I don't think so either.

I am surprised that Putin hasn’t cut off EU gas supplies mid-winter - seems weird that he will let them ease into a 2030 Russian-free energy framework. That and nukes are his only two levers on the world. I know they need the $$ but they can just sell to India or China (I know logistics make that difficult). Heck, what good are those euros they get paid for the gas if they can’t put them in a bank or spend them anywhere.

 

[Ben Lamb]

MORE NERDS, we NEED NERDS

Calm down before you need your inhaler, Poindexter.

 

[Handlebar]

I am surprised that Putin hasn’t cut off EU gas supplies mid-winter - seems weird that he will let them ease into a 2030 Russian-free energy framework. That and nukes are his only two levers on the world. I know they need the $$ but they can just sell to India or China (I know logistics make that difficult). Heck, what good are those euros they get paid for the gas if they can’t put them in a bank or spend them anywhere.

I think that at a deep discount China pays for that energy anyway Russia wants

 

[Irrelevant]

Pretty powerful speech by Zelensky to the UK a few minutes ago.

 

[406dn]

I am surprised that Putin hasn’t cut off EU gas supplies mid-winter - seems weird that he will let them ease into a 2030 Russian-free energy framework. That and nukes are his only two levers on the world. I know they need the $$ but they can just sell to India or China (I know logistics make that difficult). Heck, what good are those euros they get paid for the gas if they can’t put them in a bank or spend them anywhere.

Speaking geographically, I think if China and India were attractive customers for Russia's oil and gas, that is where the pipelines needed would have been built.

The dilemma for Russia, is that they have proven that they might invade your country even if you buy their energy. That's not the best closing pitch ever devised.

Putin has screwed his country's future far more than he will ever know.

 

[Sytes]

I am surprised that Putin hasn’t cut off EU gas supplies mid-winter - seems weird that he will let them ease into a 2030 Russian-free energy framework.

I believe he's aware how far his push and pull works to his benefit and IF he cutoff EU it may be more caustic to his objective. As it is, leaves EU unsettled to push when they feel the squeeze.

Meh, who knows... it's Putin we're discussing and he, regardless what numbnuts have to say, Putin is a smart, tactical master of his game.

 

[Ben Lamb]

Interesting article about China's exposure in the energy markets. TLDR - it's complicated & Russia isn't as much of a factor as people think:

How Is China's Energy Footprint Changing? | ChinaPower Project

Power can be derived from a country’s ability to leverage its resources toward economic and political gains.

chinapower.csis.org

 

[406dn]

Meh, who knows... it's Putin we're discussing and he, regardless what numbnuts have to say, Putin is a smart, tactical master of his game.

So...if this is true...is he thinking the Ukraine thing is going even better than he envisioned?

 

[QuazyQuinton]

I asked my wife this morning she thought Putin yet realizes that world history is going to treat him badly. She didn't think he's that point, I don't think so either.

Don't look now, but your America-centricity is showing.

I expect that Putin cares zero how world history will treat him. What he probably does care about is how Russian history will treat him. If he "wins" this war, he will be a hero. If he loses but goes down as a heroic martyr, that is perhaps a win, also. It's a bigger step to losing the war AND becoming a bad guy in Russian history. Especially as he controls the Russian media, this is probably part of his calculation.

QQ

 

[VikingsGuy]

 

[406dn]

Don't look now, but your America-centricity is showing.

I expect that Putin cares zero how world history will treat him. What he probably does care about is how Russian history will treat him. If he "wins" this war, he will be a hero. If he loses but goes down as a heroic martyr, that is perhaps a win, also. It's a bigger step to losing the war AND becoming a bad guy in Russian history. Especially as he controls the Russian media, this is probably part of his calculation.

QQ

While large, Russia alone does not write world history. His hero status, if any, will be pretty limited.

 

[Sytes]

So...if this is true...is he thinking the Ukraine thing is going even better than he envisioned?

IMO, QQ above commented on the martyr /hero Russians may view his actions. He's a tactical warmonger who controls his media, skilled manipulation w/in former KGB, and politically artful in his center stage, bare chested power move.

 

[406dn]

I understand that, again, do you think he thinks he made a masterful move?

 

[Handlebar]

I understand that, again, do you think he thinks he made a masterful move?

Not really understanding what his objective is this is hard to say, however if he makes the West blink, if he keeps the Ukraine out of EU influence he may well feel like he reached his goals. I still think it is China that plays this whole thing like a fiddle

 

[Sytes]

I understand that, again, do you think he thinks he made a masterful move?

What Do I think? I think he knows how fights are played out... going to spar then escalate where he finds weakness from the initial spar.

Hand to hand combat holds similar principles. Throws reserved crap, footing moves for reaction... dials in, finds enemy's strengths and exposed weakness and plays the same on the world stage... hesitation or threat level and contemplates his new set of moves.

I believe he fully embraces this type of activity.

 

[BigHornRam]

I understand that, again, do you think he thinks he made a masterful move?

Sure. He's probably keeping the nat gas lines open so he can pay his troops in euros.

 

[cwitherow]

And that is your prerogative. One thing I am confident in. I will never find a politician that 100% agrees with my philosophies, and will end up settling on the one that I can agree with the most.

I absolutely agree.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Not sure if this was shared but here are interviews with Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky's opponent in the 2019 presidential election. I read the comments about Zelensky dragging his opponent off to jail after the election and these were the first items that came up... it apears he's in Ukraine and very must fighting against the Russians.

Ex-Ukraine president insists Russian leader 'never keeps his words'

THE FORMER Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has warned the West not to "trust Putin" as the Russian President does not "keep to his words".

www.express.co.uk

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

What Do I think? I think he knows how fights are played out... going to spar then escalate where he finds weakness from the initial spar.

Hand to hand combat holds similar principles. Throws reserved crap, footing moves for reaction... dials in, finds enemy's strengths and exposed weakness and plays the same on the world stage... hesitation or threat level and contemplates his new set of moves.

I believe he fully embraces this type of activity.

Nope, not even close... I could list a dozen pieces of factual evidence that he was in no way prepared for this fight. He is much more like Emperor with no clothes, than Sun Tzu....

 

[Sytes]

Nope, not even close... I could list a dozen pieces of factual evidence that he was in no way prepared for this fight. He is much more like Emperor with no clothes, than Sun Tzu....

I had contemplated linking you for sharing thoughts on this topic.. Glad you chimed in.