Ukraine / Russia

[np307]

I saw this from a Ukranian journalist on Twitter. Current state of the battle of Kyiv according to Ukraine.

 

[Irrelevant]

A little long, but interesting assessment.

Why should I believe Johnny Harris?

 

[schmalts]

My employer had a significant operation in Alberta. My understanding is that it is indeed more like mining. The tar is washed off the sand with steam. Then the tar is sent thru a coker, with the cracked oil becoming the syncrude. The bottoms, or coke, is then burned to make steam to wash tar out of the sand.

Also, the syncrude that came to Montana refineries came down existing pipelines. What they did with the remaining, I'm not certain. My hunch is the Keystone pipeline was needed to really scale up the various operati

I would rather import from Canada as well, but I think at the end of the day the American people need to deal with the fact that you can't sanction Venezuela, Iran, and Russia at the same time and not pay more.

Further, what about all the allies of ours that aren't producing countries? "End foreign oil dependence is a common refrain, and while we are damn close, with current global demand you aren't producing enough for the US + Europe et al.

A couple articles I've read are bullish to $160 near term but then predict a demand correction and then bearish of $100 oil.

I've also not heard much about gas sanctions, for instance Nord Stream I is still flowing. I'm not sure what happens to Europe if you shut down gas.
Gas

The natural gas Barrel of oil is MMBtu (for others reading who don't follow commodities)

The Henry Hub is one of the US bench marks, for the last decade the US has been mostly in the $3-4 range.
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TTF is the Dutch/ European number... it's typically in the $20s, which is why Marcellus/Utica producers have wanted to build more LNG plants on the east coast and pipelines out of PA/WV/OH.

Anyway TTF hit $100 today, and it's been sitting above $50. Henry Hub, unlike WTI for oil hasn't moved since the war started.

I think the Henry Hub "insulation" in many ways highlights the fact that the US is stopping supply elsewhere in the world but not doing much to add to our allies collective energy security needs.

To me gas more than crude is going to be the linchpin for Europe, Russia provides 20% of their gas.

I don't think anyone is going to say that we will not pay more, but it is simple to see we would not have paid as much more in the future had a pipeline with that volume been completed to get more production from Canada instead of countries that are really our enemy. If you are against the environmental impact that is fine, but let's not pretend that this pipeline would not have helped the United states and Canada with being more dependent on oil from our continent. If oil gets gets to a price above record level this can be a catalyst to crater out entire economy. We have politicians who are really acting like they give a shit about gas prices because the mid terms are coming up and after that the high gas prices will be all about how much better it would be if we drove EV instead. Seriously, there are the green deal people who are loving this, change my mind.

 

[Cheesehead]

...enough about sniffy the uniter, ok?

Who you calling sniffy? (Sorry, I’m just in love with this gif)

 

[BigHornRam]

And other than Biden. We're in desperate need of fresh blood

Like Hillary?

 

[Derek44]

Meanwhile over on the "fire".. https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbthreads/ubbthreads.php/topics/17022875/1

Oh wow!!!!! What a different take. I guess my ol man was right. It takes all kinds to make the world go round.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Why should I believe Johnny Harris?

Didn't say you should, I just said interesting. If I had said, "you guys are suckers and this man has all the answers" then I would have owed a little support. As such, just interesting - make of it what you will.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I don't think anyone is going to say that we will not pay more, but it is simple to see we would not have paid as much more in the future had a pipeline with that volume been completed to get more production from Canada instead of countries that are really our enemy. If you are against the environmental impact that is fine, but let's not pretend that this pipeline would not have helped the United states and Canada with being more dependent on oil from our continent. If oil gets gets to a price above record level this can be a catalyst to crater out entire economy. We have politicians who are really acting like they give a shit about gas prices because the mid terms are coming up and after that the high gas prices will be all about how much better it would be if we drove EV instead. Seriously, there are the green deal people who are loving this, change my mind.

It is a bit of a NIMBY issue for sure, though it was the original cancellations that are relevant to this discussion Biden's actions while indicative of the trend happened too recently for the pipeline, to have been completed.

 

[VikingsGuy]

...enough about sniffy the uniter, ok?

I don't want either of them, ok?

 

[schmalts]

It is a bit of a NIMBY issue for sure, though it was the original cancellations that are relevant to this discussion Biden's actions while indicative of the trend happened too recently for the pipeline, to have been completed.

The oil has to come from somewhere. I'd rather is come from anywhere other than our enemies, even if a pipeline and/or some new holes are punched in this country. There comes a point where you can only ignore what oil prices will do to our economy.

 

[Cheesehead]

The oil has to come from somewhere. I'd rather is come from anywhere other than our enemies, even if a pipeline and/or some new holes are punched in this country. There comes a point where you can only ignore what oil prices will do to our economy.

I’ve heard this view for ages but I’ve always been in Charlie Munger’s camp…oil is a natural resource no less than Iowan topsoil. And it’s finite + strategically necessary. When times are good, consume abroad as much as you possibly can. That leaves more for later domestically when times are hard and prices are higher (limited resource with in elastic demand). Times are less good now but the oceans are still good to travel…for now
People might cry ‘but jobs!’…bah. People can do other shit.

 

[Deleted member 18333]

We're in desperate need of fresh blood

So is Biden

 

[VikingsGuy]

With everything going on in the world and you are worried about being crass and mean tweets.

I didn't say "mean tweets". I said "divisive" and there is a huge difference when we are talking about leadership. He was the most purposely obnoxious man to ever sit in that chair and I don't know why some cheer that. Even the infamous LBJ kept the worst of himself in private. Lincoln wasn't a jerk, Teddy Roosevelt wasn't a jerk, Ronnie R wasn't a jerk. You can be a great president without being a public *sshole. And if Americans don't see the difference then I give this country about 10 more good years and we can put a fork in the American Experiment. True Leadership - Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Lincoln, both the Roosevelts, Ronnie - got us here and none of them behaved that way.

 

[noharleyyet]

Who you calling sniffy? (Sorry, I’m just in love with this gif)
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Crassy dude...

 

[Addicting]

I paid 5.15 for a gallon of Diesel today at the truck stop. With 200 gallon capacity it was $720. Freight companies are going to have to raise rates. We will start feeling it in stores soon.

 

[Irrelevant]

Didn't say you should, I just said interesting. If I had said, "you guys are suckers and this man has all the answers" then I would have owed a little support. As such, just interesting - make of it what you will.

I didn't mean it as an afront, I just genuinely had never heard of him, and his wiki page is pretty sparse.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I didn't mean it as an afront, I just genuinely had never heard of him, and his wiki page is pretty sparse.

The only other thing I have seen from him is a "deep investigation" into why McDonald's ice cream machines are always broke

 

[LWC55]

I didn't say "mean tweets". I said "divisive" and there is a huge difference when we are talking about leadership. He was the most purposely obnoxious man to ever sit in that chair and I don't know why some cheer that. Even the infamous LBJ kept the worst of himself in private. Lincoln wasn't a jerk, Teddy Roosevelt wasn't a jerk, Ronnie R wasn't a jerk. You can be a great president without being a public *sshole. And if Americans don't see the difference then I give this country about 10 more good years and we can put a fork in the American Experiment. True Leadership - Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Lincoln, both the Roosevelts, Ronnie - got us here and none of them behaved that way.

I don't disagree. But all those you mentioned would have likely acted much differently if they had 90+% of the propagandist media working day and night to bring them down. Opponents making up Russian collusion hoaxes and the media carrying their water. Plus many other examples. Being polite and going along to get along was never going to cut it. But I think we can look at those 4 years vs the last year or so of a disaster and tell a pretty big difference in the results and the direction we are headed. When peoples' main critique of his presidency is being crass, well that argument doesn't do much for me.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I don't disagree. But all those you mentioned would have likely acted much differently if they had 90+% of the propagandist media working day and night to bring them down. Opponents making up Russian collusion hoaxes and the media carrying their water. Plus many other examples. Being polite and going along to get along was never going to cut it. But I think we can look at those 4 years vs the last year or so of a disaster and tell a pretty big difference in the results and the direction we are headed. When peoples' main critique of his presidency is being crass, well that argument doesn't do much for me.

Ronnie was viciously attacked at a time when the only media was left of center - there were no news sources on his side - but he handled with grace and brought much of America together (but of course not all).

Whatever worked better 4 years ago than today is not because of him being an *ss. He could have got all the good, and likely a second term if he could have dealt with the attacks like a leader and not a petulant child. A quick look at the numbers of Republicans who voted Biden shows it was his to lose - and lose he did.

But I am now going back on topic -- Ukraine.

Ukraine war: PM calls for 'step-by-step' move from Russian fuel

Meanwhile, the German chancellor says there is no alternative to Russian supplies at the moment.

www.bbc.com

 

[noharleyyet]

I don't disagree. But all those you mentioned would have likely acted much differently if they had 90+% of the propagandist media working day and night to bring them down. Opponents making up Russian collusion hoaxes and the media carrying their water. Plus many other examples. Being polite and going along to get along was never going to cut it. But I think we can look at those 4 years vs the last year or so of a disaster and tell a pretty big difference in the results and the direction we are headed. When peoples' main critique of his presidency is being crass, well that argument doesn't do much for me.

Now you're gonna get a footnoted term paper...; )