Ukraine / Russia

I really hope that's bad info...but shit in one hand and wish in the other..
We know how he behaved in Chechnya and Syria so the playbook is clear. There will be nothing standing in Ukraine if they resist like the Afghans or Vietnamese.

So, if NATO decides to watch from the sidelines, Putin has Moldova, Georgia and Armenia as obvious next steps. Then Putin will have the big choice of whether to turn to the Muslim former territories such as Kazakhstan, or take on NATO in the Baltics, Poland and/or Romania (for this calculus I view Finland as a NATO country - not as an actual member, but there are enough ethic/cultural connections to the west that it will be defended). Hard to believe he would take on NATO directly. He has to know he has no chance of winning and that his game is to grab as much non-NATO as he can and then settle back into societal disruption in the west.

Our big question is how long will NATO watch? Will it enter Ukraine due to humanitarian reasons? Will it let all the non-NATO former territories fall one by one? Will our western populations continue to remain entranced by Russian propaganda via social media?

Without nukes the answer is fairly clear - we would be already enforcing a no-fly zone in Ukraine and we would be willing to go further if needed. But with nukes, my guess is NATO sits on the sidelines for quite some time.

My prayers to the people of Ukraine - and to the people in Russia who are beginning to speak out.
 
If putin gets any more medieval in this botched invasion, the Chinese are going to be sending a hit squad to take this sick pup out. Then they can blame it on Lindsey Graham.
You raise an interesting point. China. I have read a number of articles that say China isn't happy about the Ukraine invasion, but it is not so obvious why that is the case. From my lens, China will be able to get cheap energy from Russia as it has to go somewhere, they will be able to bail them out economically thereby confirming that China is now the big dog in the relationship, the west is stressed and distracted away from what was certainly turning into an ant-China emphasis, it seems unlikely that the west goes to war for Tawain while facing the possibility of all-out war in Europe. This seems perfect for China. So, I must be missing something in their calculus.
 
You raise an interesting point. China. I have read a number of articles that say China isn't happy about the Ukraine invasion, but it is not so obvious why that is the case. From my lens, China will be able to get cheap energy from Russia as it has to go somewhere, they will be able to bail them out economically thereby confirming that China is now the big dog in the relationship, the west is stressed and distracted away from what was certainly turning into an ant-China emphasis, it seems unlikely that the west goes to war for Tawain while facing the possibility of all-out war in Europe. This seems perfect for China. So, I must be missing something in their calculus.
The world is watching this, and know what is going on. China's new relationship with Russia is getting beyond uncomfortable, and they are not oblivious to this fact. Shit, a few of their leaders may even have a sliver of conscious.
 
The world is watching this, and know what is going on. China's new relationship with Russia is getting beyond uncomfortable, and they are not oblivious to this fact. Shit, a few of their leaders may even have a sliver of conscious.

I am not convinced nations have morals or conscience, rather they have interests. Sometimes those interests may appear to align conveniently with morals. I include the US in this critique.

It just seems like China’s interests would be for Russia to create chaos in the west. The only angle I can find is that they need a happy and easy spending west to prop up an economy with a serious real estate bubble, huge unfunded pension system and an aging population. Maybe this calculus favors economy over issues like East China Sea islands and status of Taiwan.
 
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I am not convinced nations have morals or conscience, rather they have interests. Sometimes those interests may appear to align conveniently with morals. I include the US in this critique.

It just seems like China’s interests would be for Russia to create chaos in the west. The only angle I can find is that they need a happy and easy spending west to prop up an economy with a serious real estate bubble, huge unfunded pension system and an aging population. Maybe this economic calculus favors economy over issues like East China Sea islands and status of Taiwan.
Agreed.

Caveat... Putin uses tactical nukes, I think China finds "morals" in that instance.
 
Godspeed to the brave Ukrainians.


How Ukraine Blunted the Russian Advance

Combat-hardened Ukrainian troops, armed with weapons from the U.S., Britain and elsewhere, have slowed and in some cases halted Russian advances by taking advantage of strong morale, a deep, home-team knowledge of the battlefield and Russian shortcomings in logistics and tactics.
www.wsj.com
 

This seems like a huge deal to me… now I’m biased because I’ve used cash twice in the last 18 months, one of two was to buy thin mints ;)

I assume Russia like a lot of Eastern Europe is pretty cash centric?
 
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Is this the first time we've seen global corporate power wielded against a belligerent nation directly like this?

Also

Is this the first war to be fought on/with social media?

I think those are the two big novel features of this war to keep an eye on.
 
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