Irrelevant
Well-known member
Well the gov't could... I mean they just got about two years of experience telling biz what to do.
Ukraine / Russia
- Thread starter Cheesehead
- Start date
If the dollar sucks so bad we better fill the rest of world in on it because they seemed to have missed that memo. When all else fails fear-monger.
The Russian Ruble is trading at .0088 per dollar. Anyone trading with Russia better have a good calculator...
The Russian Ruble is trading at .0088 per dollar. Anyone trading with Russia better have a good calculator...
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D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
The market, but by 'the market' I don't mean consumers, because yes demand is there so seemingly they are calling. I mean by investors, that really is the crux of the domestic production.
There is a lot of "Biden did this", "Trump did this" but really it's not relevant... in many ways it's just rhetoric.
So for domestic production to really take off you need the institutional investors back. They are what underpin the industry and set the agenda. For instance the Alaska permanent fund, is a huge OG investor. They have holdings in majors like BP/Shell/etc. but they also are heavily invested in PE funds Quantum/Limerock/NGP/ENCAP/Pearl/ Kayne Anderson/Warburg etc. They invest enough that often they are on the boards of individual companies. Liberty Mutual the now pulled out New York Pension fund, various pension funds, various academic endowments Harvard etc. are similarly positioned. These are the people who dictate with their wallets what happens, do we focus on increasing production or do we focus returning dividends. Right now it's the latter, if you google OG news or look at company presentations they all say the same thing 'focus on returning cash to investors'.
In part reduced drilling is because of activist investors focusing on climate change, and again that's not a president thing. Engine no 1, was heavy ESG during Trump, but a large part of it was the fact that the industry lost a lot of money, produced too much oil to the point they were losing money (over supply) and/or drilling in uneconomic basins. Investors saw it as a bad investment. So it's a climate thing, but it's also just a making money thing and for a long time returns weren't great.
Today WTI is around ~$105 but a lot of people I've talked to still think it will be ~$60s by the end of the year at current production. I think for oil production to increase the industry investors need to get comfortable with the idea that the price won't just crater once they start adding rigs in a serious way. They want to see oil stay in the $60-$75 range not dip into the $40-50s, about sub $52 is in the bankrupt/lose money range.
This isn't at all accurate but think about it like this...
Return on investment in 2 years.
$50 -20%
$55 0%
$60 30%
$70 100%
$100 200%
So if you're an investor at what point do you decide that instead of taking a dividend and plugging it into the market elsewhere that you put your money into drilling and investing in OG. Esp as we are discussing about all electric cars and drops in demand, that return only happens if that's the year average of WTI not a single day spot price.
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Also I think Biden could invoke the defense production act on oil/gas production.
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Again just a 30k foot view of how the industry kinda works.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I always figured a squadron of A10s was the only way to stop an armored column, but I guess I didn't think of poor maintenance being the other solution . . .
ForkieShooter
Well-known member
Craigslist sales ad says “Probably just needs carbs cleaned and they’ll start right up again.”
D
Deleted member 20812
Guest
Can of seafoam included.
There is a lot going on around the world that should alarm us.
Ukraine asking China to help. (Yea that is just what we need...another nut job getting involved)
Iran nuclear deal (Hopefully those in power don't do something stupid due to the focus on Russia)
NATO not flexing their muscles (Nobody wants WWIII)
My opinion on Puttin, he has been waiting for a while to test the waters. He has watched a Global crisis and is taking advantage of it. I believe and pray that I am wrong, but the sh#% is going to hit the fan on a much bigger scale.
Ukraine asking China to help. (Yea that is just what we need...another nut job getting involved)
Iran nuclear deal (Hopefully those in power don't do something stupid due to the focus on Russia)
NATO not flexing their muscles (Nobody wants WWIII)
My opinion on Puttin, he has been waiting for a while to test the waters. He has watched a Global crisis and is taking advantage of it. I believe and pray that I am wrong, but the sh#% is going to hit the fan on a much bigger scale.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
IMO, without the threat of going nuclear, Russia no longer has a viable shot at winning a war with NATO if it came to that. But of course, that is the biggest "if" in the history of humanity.
Yea if NATO gets involved they are literally playing "Russian Roulette" only with nukes!
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Putin invaded Georgia in 2008
He took Crimea in 2014
He meddled in US elections in 2016
He has been testing the waters since he came to power. He poisons and/or locks up his opponents and rigs Russian elections. Every time the West did nothing and he got away with it. Some people even throw a little praise his way.
We have to do something. I will say it again, the price we pay today will be far smaller than the price in the future.
406dn
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2019
- Messages
- 2,230
Even with nukes, he doesn't "win" a war with NATO. No one wins, everyone loses. He might view that as a win thou.
Didn't the EU accept Ukraines Membership application and rushing thru the approval of it----and after approved ? I am asking for your thoughts on this
Also I thought the caravan, besides breakdowns, had supply line problems--- gas, parts, even food ?
Am I the only one that believes sanctions might help, especially when they cut off the Russian Banks etc, but for the most part in the beginning at least these sanctions will hurt the Russia citizens the most. But like Stalin---Putin does not care about the pain brought upon or living condition of his people. IMHO
I have no idea at this time how many people have been arrested inside Russia for protesting the war AND does anyone know what they sentence is or how long they are or will be kept in jail.
If someone or several someone's could give me updates and/or opinions it would be appreciated
I agree something must be done. Unfortunately I feel nothing will be and Ukraine will become part of Russia. Hold on to your hat because things are going to unravel. I know how this is going to play out in the end...
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
No - Ukraine is asking for rushed EU membership, but not sure that really matters at this point - NATO membership is what matters. They are not a NATO member and that is one of the "reasons" Russia has for invading - to prevent that in the future.
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VikingsGuy
Well-known member
noharleyyet
Well-known member
....from twitter
Putin gathered oligarchs in the Kremlin to discuss their response to the economic shocks that would follow. He told them he had “no other choice” but to invade Ukraine — and, if they wanted to keep their businesses, neither did they, according to people briefed on the meeting.
In a documentary about Ivan the Terrible a Russian professor said something revealing. He said in Russia, the choice is never between democracy and authoritarianism. It's between authoritarianism and chaos, so they always go with authoritarianism.
Putin gathered oligarchs in the Kremlin to discuss their response to the economic shocks that would follow. He told them he had “no other choice” but to invade Ukraine — and, if they wanted to keep their businesses, neither did they, according to people briefed on the meeting.
In a documentary about Ivan the Terrible a Russian professor said something revealing. He said in Russia, the choice is never between democracy and authoritarianism. It's between authoritarianism and chaos, so they always go with authoritarianism.
Sanctions will not work on an arrogant evil dictator!
Russia is brutal to everyone in general, including its own people. Russians file more complaints with the European Court of Human Rights than the citizens of any of the 46 countries that make up the Council of Europe, 13,645 complaints in 2020 alone (by contrast, the figure for U.K. was 124).
Wrong Burgundy
Well-known member
Yep, I just finished this article. Very insightful.Well worth the read
‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes — POLITICO
Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.apple.news
This paragraph was sobering:
'But let’s focus here on the territorial expansionism of Germany, what Germany did under Hitler in that period: seizure of the Sudetenland and the Anschluss or annexation of Austria, all on the basis that they were German speakers. The invasion of Poland. The treaty with the Soviet Union, the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, that also enabled the Soviet Union to take portions of Poland but then became a prelude to Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of the Soviet Union. Invasions of France and all of the countries surrounding Germany, including Denmark and further afield to Norway. Germany eventually engaged in a burst of massive territorial expansion and occupation. Eventually the Soviet Union fought back. Vladimir Putin’s own family suffered during the siege of Leningrad, and yet here is Vladimir Putin doing exactly the same thing.'
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I am trying to find info on EU membership request. I'm not sure the speed it can be done or the impact.
The "blitzkrieg" strategy didn't work because it outran logistical supply lines. Didn't seem well coordinated and revolved around the thought the Ukranians would just give up. Now it appears the supply lines are being solidified for a longer battle. I can't speak to the accuracy of reports of breakdowns in equipment.
I think heavy sanctions might work, but I doubt they work in the timeline Ukraine needs. A few oligarchs are feeling the effects of the sanctions. I.e., they want their yachts back. To your point, Putin doesn't care about money, Russian citizens, or body-counts.
I am hearing more Russians (3-4k) have been arrested protesting the war than Ukranians killed in the attack. Not sure how accurate that it, but it seems like a morbid positive. I'm not sure how long that can continue.
ForkieShooter
Well-known member
They did, but there's not really a mechanism in place for fast tracking an application. Ukraine probably wouldn't have met EU's membership requirements with or without this conflict in effect. They certainly did not meet NATO membership requirements (endemic corruption). EU application is a moot point though, as it's NATO that provides joint defense for the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy. CFSP is focused more on peacekeeping operations abroad than defense forces for the EU.
Supply chain problems do appear to be a problem for Russian forces. Also problematic is both countries share similar technology in friend-or-foe transponders, or what NATO countries call "blue force trackers." The Russian military has resorted to painting the letter "Z" on their military hardware to avoid fratricide. Seems indicative of overall poor operational planning to me.
Putin's power seems to stem from agreements with Russia's oligarchy. A sort of, "do what you wish as long as we're financially comfortable." Initially the citizenry will feel it the most (exe. current currency collapse), but hopefully those penalties will "trickle up" and start to lessen Putin's appeal at home and diminish Russia's ability to project belligerence abroad. (last link is behind a paywall, but I think there's a free article if you clear your cache?)
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