throwing good app money after bad and repeat

[popeyoung12]

I played a 35 year long game and drew a desert ram tag last year. Or you can jump the line like John Gallo Jr. For 240k and get the same tag. Or you can stroke a 70k check for baja and kill a shaved hoove, pen raised ram. Throw app.$$ against the wall because it won't stick on your coffin. " fly 1st class, because your kids will".

 

[LopeHunter]

I actually sat down a few years ago and thought this over. Dropped three states altogether at that time and I'm working my way out of two or three more as we speak on many species.

I am culling the herd. Now that am a few months from being eligible to get a lifetime hunting license in Arizona, I will be culling even more. I may end up only applying in AZ, NM, NV and CO as those are easy road trips when have a tag. I have a crap top of points in those except NM which is a cheap date even as they make the sandbox for DIY non-residents smaller and smaller. Saying goodbye to 100s of points but what good are 22 non-resident points in WY for moose? Answer: Bubkis. Let WY fund their own F&G and don't any old you indignant Wyominites dare ask any other state to help when you have fires burning later this year because us residents paid for that fire-fighting tankers so they can stay parked in our states. Let 'er burn.

 

[BuzzH]

I am culling the herd. Now that am a few months from being eligible to get a lifetime hunting license in Arizona, I will be culling even more. I may end up only applying in AZ, NM, NV and CO as those are easy road trips when have a tag. I have a crap top of points in those except NM which is a cheap date even as they make the sandbox for DIY non-residents smaller and smaller. Saying goodbye to 100s of points but what good are 22 non-resident points in WY for moose? Answer: Bubkis. Let WY fund their own F&G and don't any old you indignant Wyominites dare ask any other state to help when you have fires burning later this year because us residents paid for that fire-fighting tankers so they can stay parked in our states. Let 'er burn.

Could have drawn 4 areas for a cow moose with your points...bubkis?

Had pretty good odds for a bull tag in 2 units. Bubkis?

 

[popeyoung12]

Could have drawn 4 areas for a cow moose with your points...bubkis?

Had pretty good odds for a bull tag in 2 units. Bubkis?

And cow taste great, besides you run out of wall room.

 

[Zim]

Good for you. Your probably in the <2% of people that has drawn. For the remaining 98% that don't draw it is a waste of money. (Percentages are a guess)
For "most" everyone that didn't get in on the ground floor it will be a waste of money. Which is kinda the point of this thread.
Congrats on beating the odds but most of us won't.

Okie, Yes, 2% for any sheep tag was pre-internet around 1996. Today it’s much more like 1/100th of 1% unless you got 25 points in NV or AZ which will get you in the 1% range. However, due to the masses your odds still decline each year despite accumulating another point.

The other option is inventing a time machine back to the 1970’s or at least 80’s.

 

[popeyoung12]

Again many states m/s/g oil tags are a random draw, not pts.

 

[okie archer]

Again many states m/s/g oil tags are a random draw, not pts.

Still extremely low odds random or not which for most is a waste of money.

 

[BuzzH]

Still extremely low odds random or not which for most is a waste of money.

But wayyy better odds than all the woe is me hunters who are, "going to save money in app fees and just pay for a hunt next year".

 

[TheTone]

The other option is inventing a time machine back to the 1970’s or at least 80’s.

let me know when it’s ready. Probably a better investment than applications and points for lots of people

 

[okie archer]

But wayyy better odds than all the woe is me hunters who are, "going to save money in app fees and just pay for a hunt next year".

No not really. I don't think anyone with common sense would consider .005 wayyy better odds than not applying at all. Odds are still dismal at best. Remember we're talking about ROI.
Buzz even if you "influenced" 100 people to apply keep in mind one might draw but 99 won't.
It's not a "woe is me" mindset. Honestly it's just being smart enough to recognize reality and accept it.
Only a fool would believe that getting in the points game today for msg is the same as it was in 1979.

 

[BuzzH]

No not really. I don't think anyone with common sense would consider .005 wayyy better odds than not applying at all. Odds are still dismal at best. Remember we're talking about ROI.
Buzz even if you "influenced" 100 people to apply keep in mind one might draw but 99 won't.
It's not a "wow is me" mindset. Honestly it's just being smart enough to recognize reality and accept it.
Only a fool would believe that getting in the points game today for msg is the same as it was in 1979.

There wasn't a point game in Montana in 1979, and I drew moose in 1995 and goat in 1998. Only msg tags I've drawn with points is 1 moose and 1 sheep both in Wyoming.

Drew my second Wyoming bull moose in Wyoming with 1 point in 2022.

Let's be honest a bonus points system is essentially random.

The simplest odds to calculate are your odds when you don't apply...

Btw, the 2024 sheep tag for Montana hanging on my refrigerator my odds were over 1/400. Guess I shouldn't have applied like the smart guys with "common sense".

 

[cur dog]

There wasn't a point game in Montana in 1979, and I drew moose in 1995 and goat in 1998. Only msg tags I've drawn with points is 1 moose and 1 sheep both in Wyoming.

Drew my second Wyoming bull moose in Wyoming with 1 point in 2022.

Let's be honest a bonus points system is essentially random.

The simplest odds to calculate are your odds when you don't apply...

Btw, the 2024 sheep tag for Montana hanging on my refrigerator my odds were over 1/400. Guess I shouldn't have applied like the smart guys with "common sense".

Obviously the system is rigged in your favor. I’m guessing the G&F figured you deserved it. You know, all that “heavy lifting”.

 

[BuzzH]

Obviously the system is rigged in your favor. I’m guessing the G&F figured you deserved it. You know, all that “heavy lifting”.

Probably so. Would explain the 2 bull moose and 3 ram tags I've drawn since 2012.

 

[cur dog]

Probably so. Would explain the 2 bull moose and 3 ram tags I've drawn since 2012.

If I were to start applying in Wyoming for a bighorn tag, what are my odds?

 

[popeyoung12]

If I were to start applying in Wyoming for a bighorn tag, what are my odds?

For m/s/g, id. Or., n.m. has a no point draw. Ut. 50% random, az. Has a random pass for a % of tags.Then apply in bonus pt. Draws like nv. Stay away from pref. Pt. Draws. 35 years, max pts. And i drew a ram tag with 5% odds.

 

[cur dog]

For m/s/g, id. Or., n.m. has a no point draw. Ut. 50% random, az. Has a random pass for a % of tags.Then apply in bonus pt. Draws like nv. Stay away from pref. Pt. Draws. 35 years, max pts. And i drew a ram tag with 5% odds.

Wyoming

 

[BuzzH]

If I were to start applying in Wyoming for a bighorn tag, what are my odds?

If you don't apply what are your odds?

R or NR?

Supertags or regular draw?

 

[popeyoung12]

Wyoming

As an nr, .06% in 1 unit. Res. 2.4%. It takes at least 23 pts. As an nr to draw. Sign-up for go hunt and you have all the odds.

 

[Letthemgrow]

I really hope more people quit applying, I love the quitters.

For someone who says they don't care you sure seem to start sweating when someone mentions the possibility of stopping to apply due to horrible odds.

 

[BuzzH]

For someone who says they don't care you sure seem to start sweating when someone mentions the possibility of stopping to apply due to horrible odds.

If you're applying in NV, CO, UT for all species, please quit...I need better odds.

Would also appreciate less applicants for RMB and pronghorn in Arizona, so stop applying for those. Same with Montana bull elk, goat, and moose...I need more of those too.