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The Fallacy of “Spreading Out The Use” in Land Management

Nameless Range

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This is not about hunting – necessarily – though there may be some throughlines. This about trails.

It’s intuitive- there’s a thing(X) existing in an area or volume (Y). X/Y. If we double the area/volume of Y, X/2Y, the proportion of the numerator to the denominator will be half of what it was. Works in a beaker.

Numerous times I have heard similar arguments in regard to crowding on public lands. I suppose there are places where the logic may hold in spirit, but mostly it doesn’t, and I think the problem, counterintuitively, can be actually be made worse in the world of trails.

Two times in the last few months – once from an advocate for new trail development in the Elkhorns, and once from one of Montana’s leading motorized use advocates – I have heard this argument:

The public is concerned with the amount of pressure and use a place is getting. The retort from trail advocate x is, “That’s why we need new trails. To spread the pressure out. It’s the only way.” I bolded the last part because I heard both advocates say those exact words. I believe this is a fallacy, not only marshalled by advocates for new trail development on public lands, but also some land managers.

A place has 10 miles of trails, popular with whoever - hikers, mountain bikers, UHVers. A proposal for the creation of an additional 10 miles of trail in the system comes along - doubling the trail mileage on offer. Has the disturbance – the crowding – been reduced by half? I don't think so. Some users are now exploiting 20 miles in a day instead of 10 - maybe twice. Not all use is created equal, but the more disturbance on the landscape per-unit-time that the activity is capable of, the less meaningful the dilution more trails will provide. This is a key, and in many circles, unpopular fact. Disturbance per-unit-time, which in some cases correlates strongly with effort and in others does not, is a powerful multiplier not to be ignored. Further, because the place is so Godd@amn “sick” now with all the new trails, the destination aspect of gravity to the herds kicks in.


So what can we do? The status quo of the landscape in conjunction with the guarantee of more people guarantees problem areas will become worse, does it not? I think in the case of certain types of use, intelligent trail planning may be a large part of the solution – loops, directional trails, etc. In others though, I wonder if we are just doomed, and one man’s stoke is another man’s sacrifice area. I can think of many.

I could dig up studies, propose other examples, build a map or two, but instead this stream of consciousness is where I am at. This isn’t a diatribe against any new trail development, but a word of caution about credulity regarding a line of reasoning I have heard from multiple people with pull in the world of decision making.

“If you build it they will come” isn’t just a line from a 1989 masterpiece.


IMG_2479.JPG
 
These quotes sound great until the public's hand enter your public lands... "Public land in public hands". "Public Land Owner".

Reading Bret's observation made me think of a quote I've often chuckled over... too much truth within - haha!
"Today's scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality." - Nikola Tesla.
 
You have a friend in traffic engineers. Look up "theory of induced traffic" and it's generally the same theme. Widen and build more roads, and people will just use them more rather than relieving congestion. It's controversial but hard to argue when you boil it down to straight logic...which is hard to do with emotions at play.
 
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You have a friend in traffic engineers. Look up "theory of induced traffic" and it's generally the same theme. Widen and build more roads, and people will just use them more rather than relieving congestions. It's controversial but hard to argue when you boil it down to straight logic...which is hard to do with emotions at play.

Oh that is fascinating, and is way more on point than my kind of guesswork. Cool to see an actual real world example of something analogous. Thanks for that.
 
That theory of induced traffic is interesting and more directly deals with what trail proponents are usually arguing for better than what I feel are the traditional arguments, where opponents to trail development are generally making an argument against increased trail milage based on the impact to wildlife, surrounding landscape, character of the area, etc those trails would bring with them. And the proponents are arguing for increased recreation experiences while almost entirely dismissing the opponents concerns.
The two sides are arguing two totally different points. But the induced traffic thing and Namelesses ramblings both deal more directly with the proponents ideas. More trails in close proximity to each other will turn the larger area into a "mecca" that users seek out. Which causes increased traffic that quickly saturates the ability of the increased trail mileages to "spread out" user traffic and further increases congestion crowding and all the other impacts that come with that.
 
Wow, I was sitting a room trying to address overcrowding on trails while you typed that. Not only is there an increase in use with increase in infrastructure, use itself incites more use. New users gravitate to popular areas, there's some comfort there... that and instragram. F IG.
 
Here in Oregon we have a lot of NF trailheads and access sites that require fees to use. We also have a limited-entry reservation system for use of a number of trails. The limited-entry thing helps some, but it sucks having to reserve your spot on the trail when you’re competing with so many other people. There’s just too many people getting “out there” now.

What we really need is a campaign that maintains some of the awe-inspiring rep that wild places already have (so that everyone wants to conserve them) but which also adds an extreme element of fear and intimidation. The heads on pikes for violators and turds idea that @Nameless Range espouses is a good one, but I imagine many Americans will balk at capital punishment on grisly display for surface shitters and guys who drive their quads off trail. A slightly softer approach may be needed.

Everyone seems to be really into changing the names of places now, so how about we change some names? “Sodomy Meadows” sounds nice. How about “Hot Afternoon Garage Saling With Your Mother-In-Law” Trail? A whole wilderness area could simply be named “Shit.” The right names might keep the casual users out. For those that are willing to brave it despite the new names, there could be paid welcome ambassadors posted at every trailhead and access point, like camp hosts. These hosts would be highly clothing-adverse, obligatory close-talkers, and experts at graphically describing the horrors that await the would-be Instagram posting looky-loos up yonder on Ass Warts and Mosquitos Mountain.

Think maybe Secretary Haaland would be down?
 
This why the guys I know opposed the Crazies land swap and new trail.
Damn, I wish they had contacted me. As far as I know, I'm the only one that presented eliminating most of the trail as a better alternative. I brought it up every time I met with the parties, but there didn't seem to be any support. If the FS gave up on the idea of the connection all that controversy in the Sweet Grass could have been eliminated.

Please have them send in comments to the FS, and CC me. Maybe even your group could get behind it. While they lose standing to object, it might not be too late for the FS to note the objection in forming their decision. It's a bit complicated so have them contact me and I'll explain some of the things to be careful about.
 
Just saw where Idaho has formed some type of outdoor advisory council aimed at increases public use and access of lands including state parks and other public lands. Stand by to watch more places loved to death and pushed for easy access development
 
Out of curiosity where do people want more trails in the Elkhorns? That place has to have one of the best well maintained trail systems I have seen.
This was a proposal from 2019, that crashed and burned but will be (is being?) resurrected to some degree. Some of the green trails proposed for codification are part of the pre-existing system, others were illegally built and would be rewarded codified, and others, for example the loop around Corral Mountain, would have to be newly built. I can't remember the mileage and can't find the stuff I wrote, but I wanna say it was 19 miles of new trail.



1690472953172.png
 
Here in Oregon we have a lot of NF trailheads and access sites that require fees to use. We also have a limited-entry reservation system for use of a number of trails. The limited-entry thing helps some, but it sucks having to reserve your spot on the trail when you’re competing with so many other people. There’s just too many people getting “out there” now.

What we really need is a campaign that maintains some of the awe-inspiring rep that wild places already have (so that everyone wants to conserve them) but which also adds an extreme element of fear and intimidation. The heads on pikes for violators and turds idea that @Nameless Range espouses is a good one, but I imagine many Americans will balk at capital punishment on grisly display for surface shitters and guys who drive their quads off trail. A slightly softer approach may be needed.

Everyone seems to be really into changing the names of places now, so how about we change some names? “Sodomy Meadows” sounds nice. How about “Hot Afternoon Garage Saling With Your Mother-In-Law” Trail? A whole wilderness area could simply be named “Shit.” The right names might keep the casual users out. For those that are willing to brave it despite the new names, there could be paid welcome ambassadors posted at every trailhead and access point, like camp hosts. These hosts would be highly clothing-adverse, obligatory close-talkers, and experts at graphically describing the horrors that await the would-be Instagram posting looky-loos up yonder on Ass Warts and Mosquitos Mountain.

Think maybe Secretary Haaland would be down?
where do I sign. I have a couple of castration ridges I'd like to nominate.

Also, looky here...
1690485221014.png
Where are all the trails? Wilderness. Why? Why, must the places we want to keep the most pristine be the only places that have trails to recreate? We, or maybe just me, need to be be advocating for more recreation in the regular forest and less in the "W". We could provide all kinds of great entry level user experiences, bridges, stairs, railings, biking, gentle grades, etc, in this area, but we aren't, we're forcing people in the most fragile ecosystems.
 
where do I sign. I have a couple of castration ridges I'd like to nominate.

Also, looky here...
View attachment 285696
Where are all the trails? Wilderness. Why? Why, must the places we want to keep the most pristine be the only places that have trails to recreate? We, or maybe just me, need to be be advocating for more recreation in the regular forest and less in the "W". We could provide all kinds of great entry level user experiences, bridges, stairs, railings, biking, gentle grades, etc, in this area, but we aren't, we're forcing people in the most fragile ecosystems.

That's a good visual of your point, and I also know that isn't all the trails on the landscape by a longshot. Very interesting.

I brought this up in a meeting a while back, but we need studies. We have collared elk, we have ecological studies, etc. I think some of the most meaningful studies of our time will be centered on recreational use - and they will have to be geography-specific. I know there are a fair amount out there, but in our modern west, they are outdated quick. In the name of increasing law enforcement on public lands, of intelligently planning recreation, of understanding the trajectory of impacts.... in my recent experience, to make the cases we need to make, their existence is lacking.
 
That's a good visual of your point, and I also know that isn't all the trails on the landscape by a longshot. Very interesting.
No, but I think user created trails are just as bad in both locations. Plus, what is the actual impact of a user created trail? How many people know about them vs the ones published on maps? If anything the ones in the W are easier to see and thus attract more use than those randomly scattered across the forest.
 
No, but I think user created trails are just as bad in both locations. Plus, what is the actual impact of a user created trail? How many people know about them vs the ones published on maps? If anything the ones in the W are easier to see and thus attract more use than those randomly scattered across the forest.

I can only speak to the places around me, but user created trails are introducing a lot of disturbance in my neck of the woods. I have skinned data off of Strava/trailforks and juxtaposed them against "official" trails in the Elkhorns, and it's gotta be 1:1 in terms of mileage if not more. Also, user-created trails in the Elkhorns anyway, are being considered for officialization.

More and more, I think we should protect the trailless, but I do take your point.
 
I can only speak to the places around me, but user created trails are introducing a lot of disturbance in my neck of the woods. I have skinned data off of Strava/trailforks and juxtaposed them against "official" trails in the Elkhorns, and it's gotta be 1:1 in terms of mileage if not more. Also, user-created trails in the Elkhorns anyway, are being considered for officialization.

More and more, I think we should protect the trailless, but I do take your point.
As do I yours, and in terms of mileage, I was told at the meeting mentioned previously that estimates on our NF are that there are 2-3x more user created motorized trails than official ones. However, I would still argue that outside of erosion, the vast majority of the "impact" is still relegated to the official trails as they just see so much more use. Also, if we want more trails, let's buy some more damn land! This is right at Seattle doorstep...

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Sorry Nameless, I've totally hijacked your thread.
 

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