Tariffs and Potential Inflation

Under Biden we already were producing more oil than ever before...producing more is going to be creating threads talking about hunting and fishing impacts on this board for the next 4 years....
Where did it go and why were the strategic oil reserves depleting at the same time?
 
From the automotive news subscription service: DC Auto Show panel discussion

Automaker and supplier executives, dealers and industry analysts repeatedly asked that question at the Washington, D.C., Auto Show. They were all certain that if enacted, broad-based tariffs on such large trading partners would upend the automotive supply chain.

“There’s a lot of nervousness and fragility over the potential threat, and if it becomes real, it will make a dent,” said Bill Long, CEO of supplier association MEMA

Executives and analysts warned tariffs would raise the average price of a new vehicle by thousands of dollars and would be unsustainable for many suppliers, potentially stopping new-vehicle production if parts become unavailable.

“My personal sense is that 25 percent on Canada and Mexico is going to be very difficult to do or sustain for a long period of time,” said Greg Senstrum, senior policy adviser at law and lobbying firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.

Still, industry executives hope any new tariffs would be short-lived or phased in over time as negotiations take place in Washington, Ottawa and Mexico City. All three panelists during an afternoon policy discussion at SAE International’s Government and Industry conference here said they think Trump is likely to view tariffs primarily as a bargaining chip.

“My personal sense is that 25 percent on Canada and Mexico is going to be very difficult to do or sustain for a long period of time,” said Greg Senstrum, senior policy adviser at law and lobbying firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.


The heads of associations representing automakers, suppliers and dealers each raised concerns about the tariffs.

Suppliers, fresh off years of supply chain challenges that reduced profit margins and increased costs, are particularly at risk from major tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, MEMA’s Long said.

“Right now, even the threat of tariffs has the potential to be almost catastrophic,” he said.

The complex regional automotive supply chain has grown over decades, dating to the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1992 and, before that, the 1965 Auto Pact between the U.S. and Canada. Parts can cross the border as many as seven times before a vehicle is assembled, said Jennifer Safavian, CEO of Autos Drive America, which represents international automakers in the U.S.

“If something happens to one of our suppliers, that prevents the OEMs from producing in the United States, and we produce a lot of vehicles here,” she said.

Potential retaliatory tariffs by Canada and Mexico would also have an adverse impact on U.S. auto production, Safavian said.

“U.S.-produced vehicles would become more expensive, and in other countries we wouldn’t be able to sell those vehicles,” she said. “That, in turn, would impact American jobs.”

Costs are likely to be passed onto consumers, who might also have fewer options if automakers decide to no longer import certain models because of high costs, said Cody Lusk, CEO of the American International Automobile Dealers Association. Dealers are concerned tariffs could add thousands of dollars to the cost of a new vehicle, potentially pricing consumers out of the market, he said.
 
And how did that "dilution" get mainlined into the blood stream from April 2020 to April 2022?

2020
In February 2020, the federal funds rate was 1.58%
In March 2020, the rate dropped to 0.65%
In April 2020, the rate dropped to 0.05%
2022
In April 2022, the rate was 0.33%
The Fed raised rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023
 
Massie is a Tea Party guy. Must be something in the Kentucky water. That video was 30 minutes of circular logic from all participants. There were some good points but often leading to the nonsensical conclusion. Massie wants to get rid of the Fed, but he clearly blames Congress for issuing the debt (which he has voted on occasion for BTW). The Fed doesn't not print $ and buy $5 billion in bonds without Congress ok'ing the idea. Also, at the end of the day, you have to look at the broader economy to measure the effectiveness of any action. The economic strength today is just as real as the pain of inflation.
 
Massie is a Tea Party guy. Must be something in the Kentucky water. That video was 30 minutes of circular logic from all participants. There were some good points but often leading to the nonsensical conclusion. Massie wants to get rid of the Fed, but he clearly blames Congress for issuing the debt (which he has voted on occasion for BTW). The Fed doesn't not print $ and buy $5 billion in bonds without Congress ok'ing the idea. Also, at the end of the day, you have to look at the broader economy to measure the effectiveness of any action. The economic strength today is just as real as the pain of inflation.
Massie is a libertarian.
 
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