Tariffs and Potential Inflation

[BigHornRam]

Not sure your source. The gov website shows it dropping substantially over the last 4 months.

Can’t be US consumption, electric cars solved that. Maybe there is a country at war that needs it, hmm.

Been filling up a little in 24. Big draw in 22 and 23. Half full now.

 

[mevertsen]

Not sure your source. The gov website shows it dropping substantially over the last 4 months.

Can’t be US consumption, electric cars solved that. Maybe there is a country at war that needs it, hmm.

I also looked at the DOE website. The latest annual report is 2022. So 23 and 24 aren't published yet.

 

[SAJ-99]

Check how much the last administration drained the strategic oil reserves. We are in a precarious spot. Plus, where did that oil go if we produced so much?

1) Please look up US oil exports.
2) SPR oil purchases need money approved by Congress. Last money was put out to bid right before the election. The wallet needs to be refilled. Yes, it’s messed up that the President can tap the SPR but can’t refill it without approval.

Not in a precarious spot. Does it really matter if the oil is in the SPR or sitting in rock in west Texas? Until Texas leaves the union, I think we are good for the time being.

 

[BigHornRam]

I also looked at the DOE website. The latest annual report is 2022. So 23 and 24 aren't published yet.

You had the same chart I just posted. You interpreted it wrong. The red lines are oil going out and the green lines are oil going in.

 

[mevertsen]

You had the same chart I just posted. You interpreted it wrong. The red lines are oil going out and the green lines are oil going in.

I understand that. I posted that chart in The previous page. Go to post..697.

I am just trying to understand the "drill baby drill" and how it's going to improve our situation in regards to SPR, if we are already at record production,or close to it.

What is Trump going to do differently that Biden did?

 

[Handlebar]

During a discourse about Treasury nominee Bessent, I read a writer with a different take on Tariffs I am paraphrasing and I don't know a damn thing about this but would like to hear some others' opinions on this. Basically, up to this point all I have heard is tariffs are ultimately a cost to the consumer. The contrarian take I heard went (again I am sure I am butchering this)

China would be forced to subsidize the impacted industry
China would accomplish this by devaluing their currency.
US dollar rise.
Imports arrive at lower price paid for with dollars that have increased in value

Thanks

 

[RemingtonRules]

I understand that. I posted that chart in The previous page. Go to post..697.

I am just trying to understand the "drill baby drill" and how it's going to improve our situation in regards to SPR, if we are already at record production,or close to it.

What is Trump going to do differently that Biden did?

The US exported a record amount of oil in 2023. The second largest destination was China. That will change.

 

[SAJ-99]

I understand that. I posted that chart in The previous page. Go to post..697.

I am just trying to understand the "drill baby drill" and how it's going to improve our situation in regards to SPR, if we are already at record production,or close to it.

What is Trump going to do differently that Biden did?

Drill baby drill is bullshit. Economics of drilling rules the market. Opening up the Arctic or the Florida coast won’t change the economics of drilling there.

Trump won’t do anything different than Biden, just like Biden didn’t do anything different than Trump. If any difference to note, Biden issued MORE permits. Gas prices are something every American can relate to and it seems easily to solve by just drilling more, so it’s a great campaign promise. Oil execs don’t want lower prices, they want them higher. But they also want tax breaks and some ability to do some accounting maneuvers to boost stock prices.

 

[RemingtonRules]

1) Please look up US oil exports.
2) SPR oil purchases need money approved by Congress. Last money was put out to bid right before the election. The wallet needs to be refilled. Yes, it’s messed up that the President can tap the SPR but can’t refill it without approval.

Not in a precarious spot. Does it really matter if the oil is in the SPR or sitting in rock in west Texas? Until Texas leaves the union, I think we are good for the time being.

You don’t understand the supply chain. Not as simple as pulling it out of the ground and pouring it in your car. Keep trying.

The oil reserves are not for controlling pricing.

 

[mevertsen]

The US exported a record amount of oil in 2023. The second largest destination was China. That will change.

Ok. Next question. Our limit in the SPR is 715MB.

We are at about 400MB.

We cut down from 4MB per day export to 3MB per day export. We're full in 9 months.

Then do we stop producing on 25 percent of our wells?

 

[RemingtonRules]

During a discourse about Treasury nominee Bessent, I read a writer with a different take on Tariffs I am paraphrasing and I don't know a damn thing about this but would like to hear some others' opinions on this. Basically, up to this point all I have heard is tariffs are ultimately a cost to the consumer. The contrarian take I heard went (again I am sure I am butchering this)

China would be forced to subsidize the impacted industry
China would accomplish this by devaluing their currency.
US dollar rise.
Imports arrive at lower price paid for with dollars that have increased in value

Thanks

Not too far off but there is more to it.

 

[mevertsen]

Drill baby drill is bullshit. Economics of drilling rules the market. Opening up the Arctic or the Florida coast won’t change the economics of drilling there.

Trump won’t do anything different than Biden, just like Biden didn’t do anything different than Trump. If any difference to note, Biden issued MORE permits. Gas prices are something every American can relate to and it seems easily to solve by just drilling more, so it’s a great campaign promise. Oil execs don’t want lower prices, they want them higher. But they also want tax breaks and some ability to do some accounting maneuvers to boost stock prices.

Agree.

I don't see how drilling more is going to do any good. We're at a point where our production could top off the SPR in a matter of a few weeks if we pushed it.

People seem to think Trump is going to bring down inflation by drilling more. All that will do is flood the market and oil will drop below the money line for corporations. That will equal capped wells and reduced production, which means higher prices.

It's a nice promise. But its a fallacy.

 

[SAJ-99]

The US exported a record amount of oil in 2023. The second largest destination was China. That will change.

Already did.

In the words of Wyatt Earp.. “Go ahead, skin it…skin that smoke wagon and see what happens. “

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-oil-exports-china-dwindle-130000646.html

 

[Handlebar]

Not too far off but there is more to it.

I would like to hear the rest

 

[SAJ-99]

You don’t understand the supply chain. Not as simple as pulling it out of the ground and pouring it in your car. Keep trying.

I will wait to for you to enlightened me on the supply chain.

1) Stopping exports to China (tariffs or no tariffs) would increase our trading deficit which is a negative to our GDP.

2) China would just go to Russia (most likely) or SA and buy their oil.

Seriously, does either of those things Make America Great Again?

 

[406dn]

We need Canadian political arbitrage like a fish needs a bicycle.

You are showing your age. I first saw that on a sweatshirt that a female clerk was wearing at a convenience store, nearly fifty years ago. The full caption was " A woman needs a man, Like a fish needs a bicycle". It left me slack jawed, at the time. My takeaway was, she likely wasn't inclined to like me.

This morning as I was driving to the gym, so not to skip leg day, I passed the gas station where I purchase gas and diesel. Diesel is the price that always catches my eye. It was up roughly 40 cents from a few days ago. I guess I could saw thanks Donnie.

I have to admit it is pretty impressive how much thought went into the pardoning of all of the January 6 patriots.

 

[BigHornRam]

I understand that. I posted that chart in The previous page. Go to post..697.

I am just trying to understand the "drill baby drill" and how it's going to improve our situation in regards to SPR, if we are already at record production,or close to it.

What is Trump going to do differently that Biden did?

This article is a little on the wonky side, basically says production is in decline. Trumps trying to be a cheerleader to get production up. Doesn't sound like it will get him much in 2025.

Oil Majors Borrow Billions for Buybacks as Production Wanes | OilPrice.com

Despite deregulation efforts and calls for increased production, U.S. oil drilling activity has fallen to near post-pandemic lows due to low oil prices, cost inflation, and changing industry dynamics.

oilprice.com

 

[brymoore]

U.S. needs more oil refineries to create more gas supply to help reduce gas prices. Current capacity is at 92% with the variance from operational issues. Pump all the oil you want, gas production won’t change.

 

[mevertsen]

U.S. needs more oil refineries to create more gas supply to help reduce gas prices. Current capacity is at 92% with the variance from operational issues. Pump all the oil you want, gas production won’t change.

Never thought about the refinery aspect of it. Good point.

 

[Rainer]

TBH I'm fine with Trump putting Tariffs on us. We can shut off all LNG, Crude Oil and Hydro. 60% of the US's domestic crude consumption comes from Canada. How long will people last when it $6-7.00/gallon? you don't have the reserves to stabilize the domestic market. I'd also be fine with closing down the Eastport, Sherwood, Sumas, Port of Morgan, Noyes etc. LNG Pipelines next week. The Asian market will give us a better deal. We're in the process of adding more pipelines for crude and LNG because of these policies in order to bypass dealing the the States anyways.

These tariffs are just going to hurt the American people more then the rest of us. It's sad that they're reverting back to the isolationist policies of the 20's and 30's. While stabbing all your Allies in the back.