Statistics - So you’re tellin me there’s a chance!

[Bullshot]

For everyone who’s down on themselves and feeling bad about the low odds of most licences, keep in mind the following statistics:

The odds of winning a million dollars in the MegaMillions drawing is 1:12,600,000

So it would make little sense to play, right?

WELLLL…. Funny thing is, the odds of being a co-worker who decided not to participate in the office pool and then gets the PLEASURE of watching his colleagues win a million bucks is, coincidentally, ALSO 1:12,600,000.

Yep, I beat them LOOOONG odds in the “Loser Lottery.” . Kicking myself pretty hard for not joining in.

Moral of the story? Gotta be in it to win it!

Good Luck on those low odds LE draws. 1:100 or 1:1000 don’t seem so bad now, huh?

 

[seeth07]

The only time I do play the lottery is when it's pooled money. I don't need to win 1.whatever billion it is now. But a billion split 100 ways is a nice 10 mil. I will gladly improve my odds on winning 10 mil by pooling

 

[BradA]

For everyone who’s down on themselves and feeling bad about the low odds of most licences, keep in mind the following statistics:

The odds of winning a million dollars in the MegaMillions drawing is 1:12,600,000

So it would make little sense to play, right?

WELLLL…. Funny thing is, the odds of being a co-worker who decided not to participate in the office pool and then gets the PLEASURE of watching his colleagues win a million bucks is, coincidentally, ALSO 1:12,600,000.

Yep, I beat them LOOOONG odds in the “Loser Lottery.” . Kicking myself pretty hard for not joining in.

Moral of the story? Gotta be in it to win it!

Good Luck on those low odds LE draws. 1:100 or 1:1000 don’t seem so bad now, huh?

Are you saying this happened to you ?

 

[Bullshot]

Are you saying this happened to you ?

Yes. I watched my co-workers split a million bucks and I wasn’t in the pool. Good times!

 

[Pucky Freak]

I’ve watched coworkers dump thousands of dollars in coworker lottery pools over the years. Not a single one looks happy. They seem kind of depressed and hopeless. Maybe looking for an escape and an early exit from an unsatisfying situation. I don’t envy them. I wouldn’t envy them if they won either.

 

[Bowmannate2000]

Yes. I watched my co-workers split a million bucks and I wasn’t in the pool. Good times!

Maybe they'll buy you lunch .

 

[Bullshot]

I wouldn’t envy them if they won either.

This is the right attitude. But, it was a little easier said than done, took a couple days to feel normal at work. Can’t help the mind wandering to all the places free money would help (home loan, kids college fund, replacement of the ripped up couch, etc, etc.) But jealousy does no good. Now if they had drawn a few of the tags I am going for, envy would be off to the races!!! Those things are way more valuable than money!

 

[Snag23]

Years ago I was in a convenience store and thought I would buy a lotto ticket for the first time and only time. A young lady walked in carrying a baby. I let her go ahead of me. She bought a ticket and won $2500! As she drove away in a beater car I knew that all played out the way it was supposed to!

 

[Firedude]

I know some hard-core lottery players. Best of the best! Studying numbers and stats constantly. They know every hot number and which day is best to buy. They're all broke. One of them brags about how good his odds are because he's put $650 a month in for 30 years. He says his odds are down to like 1 in 50. You can't tell him that's not how random works.

I finally convinced one person I know to stop playing. Somehow she was convinced as she bought more tickets through the years her odds went up. Like guys that say, "1 in 20 odds mean you should draw every 20 years!" It doesn't work that way. That means every year your odds are 19 to one against. EVERY SINGLE DRAW. She was putting $500 a month into it with that mentality.

GOOD for them for beating the odds. I'll keep investing my money and walk away with more in the long run.

 

[BradA]

I know some hard-core lottery players. Best of the best! Studying numbers and stats constantly. They know every hot number and which day is best to buy. They're all broke. One of them brags about how good his odds are because he's put $650 a month in for 30 years. He says his odds are down to like 1 in 50. You can't tell him that's not how random works.

I finally convinced one person I know to stop playing. Somehow she was convinced as she bought more tickets through the years her odds went up. Like guys that say, "1 in 20 odds mean you should draw every 20 years!" It doesn't work that way. That means every year your odds are 19 to one against. EVERY SINGLE DRAW. She was putting $500 a month into it with that mentality.

GOOD for them for beating the odds. I'll keep investing my money and walk away with more in the long run.

I hate when people say 1 in whatever odds, for example at sheep show this weekend I purchased two raffle tickets and the guy I bought them from told me “since they were only selling 300 tickets that’s like having 1 in 150 odds” it doesn’t work that way, first ticket is 1 in 299 odds and second would be 1 in 298 odds. Drives me nuts. I never play the lotto but on the other hand I do throw in for some raffle tickets when at an expo.

 

[BradA]

I’ve watched coworkers dump thousands of dollars in coworker lottery pools over the years. Not a single one looks happy. They seem kind of depressed and hopeless. Maybe looking for an escape and an early exit from an unsatisfying situation. I don’t envy them. I wouldn’t envy them if they won either.

I agree totally just last week with the big lotto everyone pitched in there money to do a group lotto ticket I opted not to, I never play the lotto and while they sat there talking about what they would spend there money on I thought in my head how I would rather have a job I enjoy and continue to save my money for sure bets instead of always hoping to win the lotto for those to happen.

 

[Bullshot]

I hate when people say 1 in whatever odds, for example at sheep show this weekend I purchased two raffle tickets and the guy I bought them from told me “since they were only selling 300 tickets that’s like having 1 in 150 odds” it doesn’t work that way, first ticket is 1 in 299 odds and second would be 1 in 298 odds. Drives me nuts. I never play the lotto but on the other hand I do throw in for some raffle tickets when at an expo.

LOL. Your “odds” in that scenario improved only by the 1 ticket. 298:1 vs 299:1. But it is true in that single drawing you would have doubled your probability of holding a winning ticket. Except doubling a very small number leaves you with a larger but still very small number.

You would NOT be improving your odds or doubling your probability of winning by buying 1 ticket in one drawing and then another ticket in a separate but equal drawing.

 

[44hunter45]

I have never won so much as enough to buy another ticket.

 

[jeff_gibbons]

I wish the lottery didn’t exist. Terrible decision to unleash that beast on the public.

Politicians will vote for anything that increases revenue or gets them re-elected

 

[ImBillT]

For everyone who’s down on themselves and feeling bad about the low odds of most licences, keep in mind the following statistics:

The odds of winning a million dollars in the MegaMillions drawing is 1:12,600,000

So it would make little sense to play, right?

WELLLL…. Funny thing is, the odds of being a co-worker who decided not to participate in the office pool and then gets the PLEASURE of watching his colleagues win a million bucks is, coincidentally, ALSO 1:12,600,000.

Yep, I beat them LOOOONG odds in the “Loser Lottery.” . Kicking myself pretty hard for not joining in.

Moral of the story? Gotta be in it to win it!

Good Luck on those low odds LE draws. 1:100 or 1:1000 don’t seem so bad now, huh?

The odds of being the co-worker who didn’t get a joint win were waaaaaaaaaay higher than the odds of not winning if you personally bought one ticket. Just sayin.

1/100, well if you plan on applying for 100 years, you have about a 67% chance of drawing that hunt one time, and a 33% chance of not drawing. Do I need to spell that out for 1/1000?

The question is not “is there a chance?” The question is “what does it cost to play?” The answer is not just money. Yes it does cost money, and that is absolutely a limiting factor for me and for others, but there’s another cost involved. OPPORTUNITY. Does applying for a 1/100 hunt prevent you from applying for a 1/10 hunt that could actually be fun? If you apply for a 1/100 hunt this year, will you still be hunting this year? If the answer is no, then that’s a very high cost. If you will still be hun to my somewhere else, and you have the money, then by all means, go for the long shot.

Additionally, applying for 100 different 1/100 odds hunts does not mean you’ll be drawing one of them. Just like applying for a 1/100 odds hunt 100 times only gives you a 67% chance, applying for 100 different 1/100 hunts also give you only a 67% chance.

 

[2rocky]

I tell folks the hunt draws are MY lottery. I hit the jackpot on 3 OIL tags that I filled in 22 years of applying. All of them I was in the random pool. So my advice is to always have a long shot tag or two you go for. Can't win if you don't play.

 

[Firedude]

The odds of being the co-worker who didn’t get a joint win were waaaaaaaaaay higher than the odds of not winning if you personally bought one ticket. Just sayin.

1/100, well if you plan on applying for 100 years, you have about a 67% chance of drawing that hunt one time, and a 33% chance of not drawing. Do I need to spell that out for 1/1000?

The question is not “is there a chance?” The question is “what does it cost to play?” The answer is not just money. Yes it does cost money, and that is absolutely a limiting factor for me and for others, but there’s another cost involved. OPPORTUNITY. Does applying for a 1/100 hunt prevent you from applying for a 1/10 hunt that could actually be fun? If you apply for a 1/100 hunt this year, will you still be hunting this year? If the answer is no, then that’s a very high cost. If you will still be hun to my somewhere else, and you have the money, then by all means, go for the long shot.

Additionally, applying for 100 different 1/100 odds hunts does not mean you’ll be drawing one of them. Just like applying for a 1/100 odds hunt 100 times only gives you a 67% chance, applying for 100 different 1/100 hunts also give you only a 67% chance.

I remember my math professor and stats teacher having this debate. 1/100 played 50 times were the numbers used. Odds of a specific ball coming up? Stats guy said 1 in 2. Math woman said 1 in 4. Her argument was you have to average in the 1 in 100 odds in the individual draw. No matter how many times you play, 1 ball in 100. Both agreed random is a bitch for betting because in the end, you can't count on anything. Math professor drove a BMW and admitted to teaching for fun. She made her money in the stock market. Stats guy drove a beater and was hoping his investments panned out. About the same age.

Guess which one I payed attention too.

 

[ImBillT]

I remember my math professor and stats teacher having this debate. 1/100 played 50 times were the numbers used. Odds of a specific ball coming up? Stats guy said 1 in 2. Math woman said 1 in 4. Her argument was you have to average in the 1 in 100 odds in the individual draw. No matter how many times you play, 1 ball in 100. Both agreed random is a bitch for betting because in the end, you can't count on anything. Math professor drove a BMW and admitted to teaching for fun. She made her money in the stock market. Stats guy drove a beater and was hoping his investments panned out. About the same age.

Guess which one I payed attention too.

Both were wrong.

1/100 played 50 times.

.99^50=.605.
1-.605=.395= 39.5%

I would bet that both of those teachers had the correct equation in their texts books somewhere.