Shooting for a WY General Rifle Elk Tag with 1 point

[matechakeric]

in 2022. Father, wife, and I will be applying in '22 with a single PP for the WY general rifle elk tag. According to the GoHunt insider, the draw odds are ~14% for 1 point for non-residents. It would be awesome if one of us draws that tag.

Is it unlikely one of us draws that tag?

 

[NoWiser]

The math says it’s unlikely, at least in the regular draw. I don’t pay attention to the special draw so I’m not sure there.

 

[Pucky Freak]

2020 chances of pulling a general tag with 2 or fewer points was 13.75% per WYG&F website. 2019 was 14.05% in the random draw, and 2018 was 14.17% Since the odds shrank by .08 in 2019, and by .20 in 2020, let’s guess they’ll shrink by .33 in 2021 and by .55 in 2022, to give us 13.42% chance for 2021 and 12.87% for 2022.

If you apply as a group in 2022, plan on 12.87% If you each three apply individually, the chance that one or more of you will pull the tag is 1 - (1 - 0.1287)^3 or 33.85%, BUT since that doesn’t account for the reality that no one person can draw multiple tags, so the chances are actually less than that by a sliver.

 

[LCH]

You got some good advice in this thread: https://www.hunttalk.com/threads/recommendations-for-applying-with-0-or-1-point-for-elk.304516/


I wouldn't count on drawing general with one point, although possible. But you can find Type 4 tags that can be drawn 2nd choice if you want to go elk hunting next year.

 

[OverlordBear]

You guys should skip the bulls in general this year and look at cow tags and get more points for 2022.

 

[SaskHunter]

Your odds are always better if you apply than if you don't.

The only time this doesn't apply would be in units where there is no random, then you're literally throwing money at 0% chances.

 

[ashersdad]

Between my boys and I, we've drawn GEN tags several times in the random draw. As has been mentioned, don't put in as a group and maybe one of you gets lucky. Good luck!

 

[ccc23454]

Why not go to Montana, that tag you can get

 

[matechakeric]

2020 chances of pulling a general tag with 2 or fewer points was 13.75% per WYG&F website. 2019 was 14.05% in the random draw, and 2018 was 14.17% Since the odds shrank by .08 in 2019, and by .20 in 2020, let’s guess they’ll shrink by .33 in 2021 and by .55 in 2022, to give us 13.42% chance for 2021 and 12.87% for 2022.

If you apply as a group in 2022, plan on 12.87% If you each three apply individually, the chance that one or more of you will pull the tag is 1 - (1 - 0.1287)^3 or 33.85%, BUT since that doesn’t account for the reality that no one person can draw multiple tags, so the chances are actually less than that by a sliver.

our logic is individual our odds are just north of 10% but there should be about a 30% chance one of us draws the tag. that's not too bad.

question: are you allowed to put in for an elk general tag as your first choice and a cow 4/5 or 6/7 as your 2nd in WY? that would be an awesome fallback.

 

[WapitiBob]

You absolutely won't draw if you don't apply.
That said, your odds with 1 point are 0% in PP side because both GEN draws are now above that threshold. Apply and maybe you hit the random side; odds in the special were over 25% last year.

yes, type 4 or 5 within the same draw (regular or special). Type 6/7 can be in addition; they're a separate (reduced price) draw. If you can afford it, a type 4/5 2nd choice and another app for the type 6/7 can help with odds of getting at least one license.

 

[ccc23454]

If you applied with a 4/5 second choice and draw you will not have any chance to draw the general bull. Since you will draw a choice your not entered into random (i believe random is only if no choice is selected) and pay full price. If your hell bent on wy and and cost is factor: all apply individually for general with no second choice but choose a -6/7 tag to apply for as group in same area your targeting (i think you can group-6/7?). Cows draws are pretty high in most zones and maybe someone hits the random bull. Worst that happens is you draw both.... just watch zones and dates to make sure things line up. And remember with massive application increases nothing is guaranteed, so do your research for zones and odds. My theory-
Best case: you draw a general or 2 in group and all have cow tags,
Likey case(if you figure odds correctly): you all get reduced cow tags
Worst case: you dont draw any tags and vacation in cancun instead.
Hope that makes sense...lol

 

[LCH]

If you applied with a 4/5 second choice and draw you will not have any chance to draw the general bull. Since you will draw a choice your not entered into random (i believe random is only if no choice is selected) and pay full price. If your hell bent on wy and and cost is factor: all apply individually for general with no second choice but choose a -6/7 tag to apply for as group in same area your targeting (i think you can group-6/7?). Cows draws are pretty high in most zones and maybe someone hits the random bull. Worst that happens is you draw both.... just watch zones and dates to make sure things line up. And remember with massive application increases nothing is guaranteed, so do your research for zones and odds. My theory-
Best case: you draw a general or 2 in group and all have cow tags,
Likey case(if you figure odds correctly): you all get reduced cow tags
Worst case: you dont draw any tags and vacation in cancun instead.
Hope that makes sense...lol

That first part is not accurate. Everyone's 1st choice goes through both pp and random draws prior to your 2nd choice being considered.

 

[ccc23454]

Ya i am sure your right, thats why i gave the disclaimer and thanks for clearing that up. I thought they did it after but i luckily dont use the system...lol. Then they can apply for the expensive cow tags as second choice and get one or other if they want.

 

[WapitiBob]

I need a drink.

 

[matechakeric]

Why not go to Montana, that tag you can get

yea the drawing odds of MT general tags seem a lot better

 

[PrairieHunter]

You guys should skip the bulls in general this year and look at cow tags and get more points for 2022.

This is great advice. But most people are just hunting for horns so they don't go this route.

 

[BuzzH]

This is great advice. But most people are just hunting for horns so they don't go this route.

Really?

Have you looked at the drawing odds in the last 10 years? Lots of cow tags that were going unsold in the past, are all gone in the leftover draw.

 

[matechakeric]

This is great advice. But most people are just hunting for horns so they don't go this route.

I'm a meat hunter. While I do prefer a big buck or bull over a smaller one, that's not what I care about. My only reason for wanting a bull over a cow is the bull is almost always a more challenging hunt than a cow hunt. I appreciate the challenge

 

[JLS]

Really?

Have you looked at the drawing odds in the last 10 years? Lots of cow tags that were going unsold in the past, are all gone in the leftover draw.

Absolutely true. Odds on cow tags have gone to shit.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

If you want a challenge a 6x6 general season bull on public land in MT should fit the bill.