So I'm seeing a lot of people posting disappointment about not getting tags that they thought were more or less guaranteed. So I thought I might open a discussion about what the draw odds are telling us. I’m not specifically talking about point-creep (which is a real thing and well-documented on this site and requires much more math than I care to do). But in my quick glancing at the non-resident any antelope random draw (which is something I assume most newcomers to this page are following), I see a couple of interesting things.
(So for those new readers, this is the draw that doesn’t pay attention to points and just places all non-resident applicants on equal footing—so many first time Wyoming antelope hunters look at these numbers because they can be used to try to predict what your odds of drawing a tag are if you have no points and are a non-resident—though as you’ll see, the predictive power is waning.)
First, it seems like people are actually paying attention to (and playing) the odds game. If you look at the numbers, the areas that experienced the largest percentage increase in applicants tend to be the areas that were easier to draw last year. So for example, Unit 11 last year had 41 tags for 84 first-choice applicants, or roughly a 49% draw success rate. That’s a high rate. This year, Unit 11 had 42 tags for a whopping 173 first-choice applicants, or a 24% success rate. Take Unit 25. Last year, a 100% success rate, with 106 tags for 86 first-choice applicants. This year, it actually had more tags to allocate (129), but a success rate of just 79% because of the 163 (roughly double last year’s) applicants. Outside of Unit 102 (I can’t even begin to guess what happened there), Unit 26 might be the most stark example. Last year, it had 262 tags for only 93 first-choice applicants—in fact, the total applicant pool (1st, 2nd, and 3rd) for that Unit was only 319 against 262 tags—so more than 80% of the people applying for a tag in that unit, regardless of preference, could have gotten one. This year, similar number of tags (243), but 235 first choice applicants. So still a 100% success rate for first-choicers, but then almost 0% for anyone else.
Second observation is that some of the biggest jumps occurred for the somehow-special tags (the #2 tags, which denote a later season, within half-mile of irrigated land, etc). Look at Unit 46. The Type 2 tag (later season start) last year was about a 54% draw—32 tags against 59 applicants. This year, an unreal drop to 13% at 24 tags against 181 applicants. Unit 77-2 is a good example, too—33% draw odds last year, 3% this year. There’s really no good reason to apply for those tags unless you’re playing the odds, which it seems like substantially more people did this year.
Final observation is, it looks like preferences shifted in ways that are not all bad news for those of us who oftentimes apply without any accumulated points. That is, every unit did not get harder to draw, and in fact, some were substantially easier. Unit 9, for example, which had a 39% success rate last year for first-choice applicants went up to 47%. Unit 43 went from 23% to 35%. There are 6 or 7 units based on my quick look that fit this pattern—a meaningful increase in the chances of drawing with no points.
Would love to hear peoples’ thoughts. My take away is, as more information gets out there (this site, etc), people are doing a better job of predicting their odds and maybe changing their application habits . But because of that, it will open up some opportunities in units that have historically been difficult to draw, as people begin to realize their long-shot odds. The real downside, though, is that we non-residents are rapidly running out of any “safe draw” units with no points. I’ll guess that for a few more years, you’ll be able to guarantee yourself a tag with no points for a “special” (i.e. twice the price) license, but that soon, the days of non-resident hunters being able to guarantee themselves a tag without points will be gone.
(So for those new readers, this is the draw that doesn’t pay attention to points and just places all non-resident applicants on equal footing—so many first time Wyoming antelope hunters look at these numbers because they can be used to try to predict what your odds of drawing a tag are if you have no points and are a non-resident—though as you’ll see, the predictive power is waning.)
First, it seems like people are actually paying attention to (and playing) the odds game. If you look at the numbers, the areas that experienced the largest percentage increase in applicants tend to be the areas that were easier to draw last year. So for example, Unit 11 last year had 41 tags for 84 first-choice applicants, or roughly a 49% draw success rate. That’s a high rate. This year, Unit 11 had 42 tags for a whopping 173 first-choice applicants, or a 24% success rate. Take Unit 25. Last year, a 100% success rate, with 106 tags for 86 first-choice applicants. This year, it actually had more tags to allocate (129), but a success rate of just 79% because of the 163 (roughly double last year’s) applicants. Outside of Unit 102 (I can’t even begin to guess what happened there), Unit 26 might be the most stark example. Last year, it had 262 tags for only 93 first-choice applicants—in fact, the total applicant pool (1st, 2nd, and 3rd) for that Unit was only 319 against 262 tags—so more than 80% of the people applying for a tag in that unit, regardless of preference, could have gotten one. This year, similar number of tags (243), but 235 first choice applicants. So still a 100% success rate for first-choicers, but then almost 0% for anyone else.
Second observation is that some of the biggest jumps occurred for the somehow-special tags (the #2 tags, which denote a later season, within half-mile of irrigated land, etc). Look at Unit 46. The Type 2 tag (later season start) last year was about a 54% draw—32 tags against 59 applicants. This year, an unreal drop to 13% at 24 tags against 181 applicants. Unit 77-2 is a good example, too—33% draw odds last year, 3% this year. There’s really no good reason to apply for those tags unless you’re playing the odds, which it seems like substantially more people did this year.
Final observation is, it looks like preferences shifted in ways that are not all bad news for those of us who oftentimes apply without any accumulated points. That is, every unit did not get harder to draw, and in fact, some were substantially easier. Unit 9, for example, which had a 39% success rate last year for first-choice applicants went up to 47%. Unit 43 went from 23% to 35%. There are 6 or 7 units based on my quick look that fit this pattern—a meaningful increase in the chances of drawing with no points.
Would love to hear peoples’ thoughts. My take away is, as more information gets out there (this site, etc), people are doing a better job of predicting their odds and maybe changing their application habits . But because of that, it will open up some opportunities in units that have historically been difficult to draw, as people begin to realize their long-shot odds. The real downside, though, is that we non-residents are rapidly running out of any “safe draw” units with no points. I’ll guess that for a few more years, you’ll be able to guarantee yourself a tag with no points for a “special” (i.e. twice the price) license, but that soon, the days of non-resident hunters being able to guarantee themselves a tag without points will be gone.
