Point creep casualty

[caddiscrazy]

Looks like I am going to be a victim of Colorado point creep this year. I put in for 551 Colorado elk muzzleloader with six points last week. On gohunt and huntin fool both sites had 100 percent draw odds through 2024 at six points. When I looked today they had updated on go hunt and new odds now have six points at zero percent odds! Didn’t even go from like 100 percent to 57 percent like five points was last year! Just straight to zero haha. Wow!

 

[smw110136]

I think you still have a chance

 

[caddiscrazy]

Possibly, but that’s also what I was looking at before go hunt’s update. This is what it looked like today

 

[Elkhntr50]

Is this gohunt’s predictive draw odds or historical? I don’t have gohunt but heard they were adding that feature

 

[npaden]

Unless that tag had some hype from some publication I would think 6 points has a chance this year.

 

[Forkyfinder]

go hunt makes every try to "go hunt" the same damn units

 

[caddiscrazy]

They use a predictive model with what they say is 97 percent accuracy

 

[LCH]

What are the odds that every single person with 7 points draws, but nobody at 6 points? Pretty low, tag allotments and number of drawn hunters rarely work out to nice even numbers like that.

I bet, with more than 97% confidence, 551 ML will not work out to a clean 100% at 7 and 0% at 6.

More likely, 80% at 7 will draw and 0% at 6 points, or 100% at 7 and 10% at 6 points. Something a bit messier.

 

[npaden]

Look at it this way. Last year 2 people with more than 6 points applied for that tag. To get to 0% at 6 points there would need to be 7 people with more than 6 points apply for it. It could happen but I would think you have a pretty good chance to draw it with 6 points.

Now if this unit got blown up on some forum like HuntTalk with the exact unit number mentioned the day before the deadline to apply.... All bets are off.

 

[caddiscrazy]

Haha! Touche! Although, this is definitely no trophy unit. Put in for this unit because I know a guy who has hunted it multiple times. I figured I could definitely increase my odds of success with what knowledge I could get out of him.

 

[Bluffgruff]

551 will be a significant disappointment for anyone burning more than 1-2 points. I don't even include it in my last ditch tier of returned tags. 2-4 year old bulls just don't interest me for trophy potential. OTC archery and 2nd and 3rd rifle really cleans out the upper age classes.

 

[Westelker]

Look at it this way. Last year 2 people with more than 6 points applied for that tag. To get to 0% at 6 points there would need to be 7 people with more than 6 points apply for it. It could happen but I would think you have a pretty good chance to draw it with 6 points.

Now if this unit got blown up on some forum like HuntTalk with the exact unit number mentioned the day before the deadline to apply.... All bets are off.