Odds of drawing one tag

[Kiwi]

70 tags! That must take a lot of time.

I was also trying to work out my odds of drawing an WY elk tag. My first choice odds are 40%, second choice 90% and third choice less than 1%. After a while I just gave up. Lucky the results are out this week.

 

[hank4elk]

I try myself and get a headache sometimes. Even with a calculator,remember those....
Save myself the headache and use HTH for odds.
Low odds 1st prime hunt (1in thousands) med 2nd(20-60% 1 in hundreds)sure(Sure I will,hah60-100%)
Now throw in you have no idea of how many will put in THIS year,or the number of tags changes.or weather was bad and success was bad previous.............I'm lucky and usually draw at least one tag these days.
I have never drawn 2 conflicting tags,but I've hunted 1 of 3 shorter.............filled 3 tags that year.

 

[Ben Long]

Jeepers. You guys make my brain hurt.

 

[LopeHunter]

70 tags! That must take a lot of time.

I was also trying to work out my odds of drawing an WY elk tag. My first choice odds are 40%, second choice 90% and third choice less than 1%. After a while I just gave up. Lucky the results are out this week.

Re odds. This is how I would calculate the odds.

40% of the time you get 1st choice. That leaves 60% of time you do not draw 1st choice yet you have 90% chance you get 2nd choice. That leaves 10% of 60% that you have 1% chance you draw 3rd.

(.4 x 1.00) +
(.9 x (1.00 - 0.40)) +
(.01 x ((1.00 - .40) - (.90 x (1.00 - .40))) =

.40 + .54 + .0006 =.9406 or 94.06% of the time you will draw a tag from your 3 choices IF the odds are unchanged from your base reference (last draw's odds).

 

[Kiwi]

Thanks LopeHunter. Your calculation looks good and I like the end result!