NR Wyoming General Elk Tag Draw Odds

[805Bowhunter]

Am I reading this correctly that for 2018, to draw the general tag (regular draw/NR) only 58.43% of people with 2pp were successful? Just looking back over this (not hunting elk this year) and was baffled to see that just under 60% drew the general tag with 2pp. 2pp used to be a slam dunk for the general tag. Wonder if it will back off at all next year or only get worse? Thoughts? Am I missing something?

Link from WGFD: https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/Drawing Odds/DRAW_ELK_PP_NONRES_2018.pdf

 

[Topgun 30-06]

Nope, you're not missing anything since your analysis is correct. If you then take a look at the Random Draw, there was then a total of 4215 people (530 in the 2 point pool that didn't draw in the PP Draw along with 3685 that had less than 2PPs) that then drew for the 595 tags that were available there, so the percentage that got tags there was only 14.1%. What was also interesting was the number of people that had quite a few points that put in and drew their tag in that Regular PP Draw. That obviously cut the number of tags that were left when it got to that 2 PP pool.

 

[Baerman]

What was also interesting was the number of people that had quite a few points that put in and drew their tag in that Regular PP Draw. That obviously cut the number of tags that were left when it got to that 2 PP pool.

That is interesting. a 12 point holder going general! Even the 7, 8 and 9 point holders. Crazy. I suspect the high number of 6 point holders realized that it's going to be a long haul until they are able to get a highly sought after draw so they might as well concede.

 

[Baerman]

Question...In a party application, do the stats represent all point holders who drew the tag or is this an average of the points? It could be that one person in a party has 6 points while the others have two or less. Thus the overall average would get them the tag.

 

[PrairieHunter]

It's very interesting how the odds change over time. Wasn't long ago that there were thousands of leftover combo tags in MT and guys were drawing WY General tags as second choice in the special draw with no preference points.

 

[Lonesome_God_outdoors]

It's also interesting to note that while overall hunter numbers are down yet out west we are seeing increases year over year that would make your 401k amazing.

 

[madtom]

Question...In a party application, do the stats represent all point holders who drew the tag or is this an average of the points? It could be that one person in a party has 6 points while the others have two or less. Thus the overall average would get them the tag.

The stats represent the party averages, hence all the <2 <3 <4 etc.

It’s likely that many people with 5-10 points just wanted out of the point game this year after the license fee increase we had. They realized it would be quite a few more years of expensive point buying before they could draw a good quota tag, so they just took a general.

We’ll see if the required points to draw come back down next year now that the initial point dumpers are gone.

 

[brownbear932008]

The stats represent the party averages, hence all the <2 <3 <4 etc.

It’s likely that many people with 5-10 points just wanted out of the point game this year after the license fee increase we had. They realized it would be quite a few more years of expensive point buying before they could draw a good quota tag, so they just took a general.

We’ll see if the required points to draw come back down next year now that the initial point dumpers are gone.

This is my guess also people are cashing out I predict. Happens every time prices go up.

 

[NoWiser]

I'd be surprised to see the number of points required drop, but I suppose it's not impossible. Hunters are seeing the futility of building points for mid-top tier units in Wyoming and are going general instead.