NFL Draft Predictions - a pointless game, but at least it has a $$ prize for the winner

[VikingsGuy]

There is a Nobel economist that spent some effort to determine the economic rationality of the NFL draft. Interesting stuff. His name escapes me, but he is at U Chicago.

Richard Thaler. https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/richard-thalers-nfl-draft-advice

I have read a few of his football papers. Not very convincing. I assume his Nobel was for something else other than football. His “freakanomics” stuff has fallen out of favor in economics for good reason. And the math behind the “only 53% advantage vs next pick” does not mean mathematically that the difference between pick 1 and pick 200 is a coin toss, any more than 3% compounded annual interest means $100 is only worth $103 in 20 years. Fortunately the draft data set is complete and not excessively big and many have easily shown big statistical differences in outcomes from rounds 1-3 and rounds 5-7. There are so many flaws in his assumptions it will have to wait until we have beers next.

 

[antlerradar]

TE speed in a wemby body...just what I wanted for April Christmas.

Sounds like Jerry Rice speed.

 

[Sam Colt]

Caleb went the Bears. Name one Bears QB that worked out? He is doomed from the start.

In 3 years he’ll be with the Jets, by ‘29 he’ll be back up for the Rough Riders.

 

[Hilljackoutlaw]

Sounds like Jerry Rice speed.

I'm gonna run with this. Jerry had game speed this kid seems to have game speed. I'm less unsatisfied now. Not quite risotto satisfied but it's better.

 

[Zim]

Bears haven’t been this excited for a drafted qb since 3 years ago!! With Justin Fields!

The wife & I are in NW Indiana so Bears fans. I have to trust Ryan Poles on this one. Interested to see if this pans out. Standards are low here and I have no expectations. Both trenches were improved last year, tho Oline was injured but played well when they all returned.

 

[VikingsGuy]

And on the theme of the myth busting “talent is evenly distributed in the NFL draft” . . .

Below are the number of Hall of Fame inductees drafted since the AFL/NFL merger (54 years) in each round.

Round 1 - 81

Round 2 - 18

Round 3 - 12

Round 4 - 8

Round 5 - 3

Round 6 - 2

Round 7 - 2

Round 8 - 1 (Pre-1994 there were more than 7 rounds)

UDFA - 8

 

[BrentD]

And on the theme of the myth busting “talent is evenly distributed in the NFL draft” . . .

Below are the number of Hall of Fame inductees drafted since the AFL/NFL merger (54 years) in each round.

Round 1 - 81

Round 2 - 18

Round 3 - 12

Round 4 - 8

Round 5 - 3

Round 6 - 2

Round 7 - 2

Round 8 - 1 (Pre-1994 there were more than 7 rounds)

UDFA - 8

Looks promising but late draft choices rarely get much opportunity, esp qbs.

 

[VikingsGuy]

And on the theme of the myth busting “talent is evenly distributed in the NFL draft” . . .

Below are the number of Hall of Fame inductees drafted since the AFL/NFL merger (54 years) in each round.

Round 1 - 81

Round 2 - 18

Round 3 - 12

Round 4 - 8

Round 5 - 3

Round 6 - 2

Round 7 - 2

Round 8 - 1 (Pre-1994 there were more than 7 rounds)

UDFA - 8

And in the last 10 years, the median draft position for a Pro Bowl selected player is 32 (interestingly the last pick of the first round). So, 50% of Pro Bowlers come from first round and 60% of Hall of Famers come from the first round.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Looks promising but late draft choices rarely get much opportunity, esp qbs.

This is a win at all cost league - if you make the 53 man roster you have a chance to show the coaching staff something. Being a first or second rounder gives you a lock on making the 53 man roster for two years, but after that it is all about talent. There is no way that there were 80 7th round draft choices that were just as good as Peyton Manning or Randy Moss (and the other 79 HoF first rounders) that got over looked or under developed and would have been hall of famers in place of Manning and Moss with a little love.

And even if you were right, what accounts for the huge disparity between rounds 1 & 2? No real difference in rate that they make the roster or getting starting chances, but 5 fold difference in HoF status?

 

[VikingsGuy]

What is clear is that rounds 5-7 and UDFA are all equally likely to be successful and folks shouldn’t get all worked up about the difference between them. Even 4th round is barely different.

 

[SAJ-99]

Caleb went the Bears. Name one Bears QB that worked out? He is doomed from the start.

Sid Luckman. OK, I think that makes your point...

 

[VikingsGuy]

Vikes just grabbed a 25 year old rookie - and not a Mormon. I will be glad when all this “covid year” crap works its way out of the system.

 

[SwaggyD]

Vikes just grabbed a 25 year old rookie - and not a Mormon. I will be glad when all this “covid year” crap works its way out of the system.

Dude should be half way to his nfl pension by now.

 

[VikingsGuy]

FWIW - I have never had any interest in rounds 5-7. But I do like the chaos of the UDFA process.

 

[VikingsGuy]

The latest player to tear out the hearts of Vikings fans in some future playoff game . . .

 

[SwaggyD]

 

[SAJ-99]

 

[seeth07]

View attachment 324540

Man that's crazy that in the last decade, every team has had a 30 td passer except the bears, browns, dolphins and redskins