NFL Draft Predictions - a pointless game, but at least it has a $$ prize for the winner

[SAJ-99]

I think Brock is a forever #12-15 QB playing on a stacked team. So, would I take him at rookie minimum? Ya. Would I pay him starter’s money? No. I am done having decent QBs making a bunch of money and going 10-7. All or nothing - I want to keep reaching for the next Mahommes/Allen every year until we get one.

I feel your pain. I'm a Bear's fan. Kirk Cousins looks like Joe Montana to us. We have had to listen to football pundits argue about Justin Fields being the next Randal Cunningham "if only...". Then all they get for trading him is a 6th rd pick, which is essentially punter territory.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I feel your pain. I'm a Bear's fan. Kirk Cousins looks like Joe Montana to us. We have had to listen to football pundits argue about Justin Fields being the next Randal Cunningham "if only...". Then all they get for trading him is a 6th rd pick, which is essentially punter territory.

Well, you get your 50% chance #1 guy tomorrow so you should have a good day.

 

[TheDudeAbides]

I feel your pain. I'm a Bear's fan. Kirk Cousins looks like Joe Montana to us. We have had to listen to football pundits argue about Justin Fields being the next Randal Cunningham "if only...". Then all they get for trading him is a 6th rd pick, which is essentially punter territory.

One thing you have to credit the Bears for is their relentless effort in trying to find a QB.

2021 Justin Fields No.11

2017 Mitch Trubisky No.2

2009 - Trade 2 firsts for Jay Cutler (Best QB in Franchise history)

2003- Rex Grossman No.22

1999 - Cade McNown No.12

Maybe this time it will work out

 

[more_cowbell]

One thing you have to credit the Bears for is their relentless effort in trying to find a QB.

2021 Justin Fields No.11

2017 Mitch Trubisky No.2

2009 - Trade 2 firsts for Jay Cutler (Best QB in Franchise history)

2003- Rex Grossman No.22

1999 - Cade McNown No.12

Maybe this time it will work out

They definitely kept Pace too long as the GM. He was responsible for at least a few of those.

I still remember when the Ravens moved up a few spots to get Lamar Jackson. Bold strategy that paid off in a lot of ways.

 

[NR_Hunter]

Joe Montana was a 3rd pick. Kurt Warner was undrafted. I get it though- non first rounder QBs rarely succeed, but a large part of that is probably the emphasis on QBs. It also doesn't mean the NFL teams are good at evaluating QBs. The number of bad QBs that were high picks that make the Super Bowl is high enough to believe 1) you can win with a deep, solid team and terrible QB (Rex Grossman) 2) college highlight reels are almost useless.

Ask - Would you be ok with the Vikings trading #11 to San Fran for Brock Purdy?


Good luck with that. For the last 3yrs the Bears had a really cool QB with amazing talent. Unfortunately he never figured out how to play QB at NFL level. The only real productive thing generated were excuses - It's the WR, It's the OL, is the coaching, etc.

Reoccurring theme to my post - Bears and QBs have bad history.

Fields was never that cool. He just benefited from the new NFL rules where you’re not allowed to touch the quarterback, so once teams figured how to keep him from dancing around he turned into Zach Wilson.

 

[SAJ-99]

Well, you get your 50% chance #1 guy tomorrow so you should have a good day.

Time will tell.
I don't think the Vikings should trade up, particularly if they do it for JJ McCarthy. Nix will be there at 11 and I like what I saw from him last year. Odds on him and McCarthy and Penix all about the same. I'm not sure it worth giving up extra picks.

@TheDudeAbides - shhhh! you aren't supposed to tell them they might be searching for that top tier QB for 50 years.

Fields was never that cool. He just benefited from the new NFL rules where you’re not allowed to touch the quarterback, so once teams figured how to keep him from dancing around he turned into Zach Wilson.

Crazy talk. Fields ran for over 1100 yards in 15 games in 2022. He often got rocked, if not directly hurt, from running the ball. Not sure how he "benefitted". He only had 420 last year because they told him to cut back on running and throw the ball. And even after three years, scouts were still divided. He was viewed as either a bust or not having a supporting cast or "not used in the right way". Some scouts love athletic, scrabbling QBs. See Cam Newton. But even the good ones have short careers. I would rather have the slow, unathletic guy that can read a defense.

 

[VikingsGuy]

So, in the last 20 years the NFL has draft 242 quarterbacks.

28 of them have been argued to be top 15 QBs for meaningful parts of their careers. That is 12%. The median draft slot for these “28 winners” is #6.5 (14 drafted 1-6, 14 drafted later than 6). The number of those drafted outside of the first round is 6 (2.5%).

7 of the “28 winners” have won Super Bowls (2.9%). 6 of the 7 were 1st round picks. The median draft slot for the Super Bowl winners is 11. Of the “28 winners” only Russel Wilson was drafted outside the 1st round and won a Super Bowl.

There was one QB drafted in the last 20 years who didn’t make my “28 winners” list yet still won a Super Bowl - Nick Foles.

So, if the goal is winning Super Bowls, drafting your QB in the first round is an imperative. Happy for the folks who pine for the old days when rando QBs like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson won rings or before the modern draft approaches were adopted and Brady slip through. But 2024 reality demands investing draft picks in QBs early and even then they will likely fail.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I don't think the Vikings should trade up, particularly if they do it for JJ McCarthy. Nix will be there at 11 and I like what I saw from him last year. Odds on him and McCarthy and Penix all about the same. I'm not sure it worth giving up extra picks.

Vikings’ Armageddon - Caleb, Jaeden, Maye get picked by Bears, Commies and Pats. NYG swap with Chargers to get JJ. LV jumps up to 7 and takes Pennix. Sean Payton loves a short but quick/accurate weak armed QB and Denver jumps to 9 and grabs Nix. Vikings get zero QB and play the year with Darnold. Everybody in the front office gets fired.

 

[Big Slick]

I think Brock is a forever #12-15 QB playing on a stacked team. So, would I take him at rookie minimum? Ya. Would I pay him starter’s money? No. I am done having decent QBs making a bunch of money and going 10-7. All or nothing - I want to keep reaching for the next Mahommes/Allen every year until we get one.

So, you need a young Tarkenton and no o-line? Well, I guess and o-line that wouldn’t block for a doucher.
We all know the qb is the guy, win lose or draw. Purdy gets zero credit because he’s on a good team. Mahomes gets more praise than a guy could choke down in a lifetime. I’ve watched some tape where guys look scared to touch Mahomes. Kind of like they are leaving the face of the league to run loose. Insert Swift picture here….

 

[VikingsGuy]

So, you need a young Tarkenton and no o-line? Well, I guess and o-line that wouldn’t block for a doucher.
We all know the qb is the guy, win lose or draw. Purdy gets zero credit because he’s on a good team. Mahomes gets more praise than a guy could choke down in a lifetime. I’ve watched some tape where guys look scared to touch Mahomes. Kind of like they are leaving the face of the league to run loose. Insert Swift picture here….

If you are suggesting Purdy is as good as Mahomes then you need to move on over to the Devil’s Lettuce thread ‘cuz you definitely smoking something.

 

[Big Slick]

If you are suggesting Purdy is as good as Mahomes then you need to move on over to the Devil’s Lettuce thread ‘cuz you definitely smoking something.

I’m not saying that. I just find it odd that Mr. Irrelevant is just that to many. I’ve seen plenty of so so qb’s on good teams. Hell, if it wasn’t for Bubby Brister Elway wouldn’t have won one of his Super Bowls.
P.S devil’s lettuce is for people that don’t have drug testing at work. Like teachers!

 

[Keep on]

1. Caleb Williams - QB (Bears)
2. Jayden Daniels - QB (Commanders)
3. Drake Maye - QB (Patriots)
4. Marvin Harrison Jr.- WR (Cardinals)
5. JC Latham - OT (Chargers)
6. Malik Nabors - WR (Giants)
7. Joe Alt - OT (Titans)
8. Dallas Turner - DT (Falcons)
9. Olu Fashanu - OT (Bears)
10. Rome Odunze- WR (Jets)

 

[antlerradar]

Vikings’ Armageddon - Caleb, Jaeden, Maye get picked by Bears, Commies and Pats. NYG swap with Chargers to get JJ. LV jumps up to 7 and takes Pennix. Sean Payton loves a short but quick/accurate weak armed QB and Denver jumps to 9 and grabs Nix. Vikings get zero QB and play the year with Darnold. Everybody in the front office gets fired.

But if you suck bad enough you can get Sanders without trading first round pics.

 

[MO Betta]

OK folks - time to start getting those predictions in. Going QB heavy - 5 in the first 10.

1) Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams
2) Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels
3) Minnesota Vikings (From Pats for 11, 23 & next year #1) - Drake Maye
4) Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr
5) Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt
6) NY Giants- Rome Odunze
7) Denver Broncos (from Titans) - Michael Pennix
8) Atlanta Falcons - Dallar Turner
9) Oakland (LV) Raiders (from Chicago) - JJ McCarthy
10) New York Jets - Malik Nabors

It wouldn't be the Raiders if they didn't get Xavier Worthy.

 

[NR_Hunter]

Time will tell.
I don't think the Vikings should trade up, particularly if they do it for JJ McCarthy. Nix will be there at 11 and I like what I saw from him last year. Odds on him and McCarthy and Penix all about the same. I'm not sure it worth giving up extra picks.

@TheDudeAbides - shhhh! you aren't supposed to tell them they might be searching for that top tier QB for 50 years.


Crazy talk. Fields ran for over 1100 yards in 15 games in 2022. He often got rocked, if not directly hurt, from running the ball. Not sure how he "benefitted". He only had 420 last year because they told him to cut back on running and throw the ball. And even after three years, scouts were still divided. He was viewed as either a bust or not having a supporting cast or "not used in the right way". Some scouts love athletic, scrabbling QBs. See Cam Newton. But even the good ones have short careers. I would rather have the slow, unathletic guy that can read a defense.

You’ve watched Fields more than me, but it really seemed like safeties and linebackers were letting up and it gave a ton of opportunities for extra yards.

 

[Jamen]

• 1 Bears Caleb Williams
• 2 Commanders Jayden Daniels
• 3 Patriots drake Maye
• 4 Cardinals Harrison JR
• 5 Vikings (from LAC) JJ McCarthy
• 6 Giants Nabers
• 7 Titans Joe Alt
• 8 Jets (from ATL) Odunze
• 9 Bears Bryon Murphy II
• 10 Falcons (from jets) Dallas Turner

 

[VikingsGuy]

But if you suck bad enough you can get Sanders without trading first round pics.

Nah - we will forever be 7-10. Heck last year lost our QB, best WR in the league, a top tackle and a top TE and are picking 11. If there ever was a time to tank it was last year - but that was apparently too much to ask of the football gods.

 

[VikingsGuy]

4 more hours to get in your picks. At noon central I will print out the list and no more entries or edits after that.

 

[seeth07]

1 Caleb Williams to the Bears
2 Jayden Daniels to the Commanders
3 Drake Maye to the Patriots
4 Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Cardinals
5 JC Latham to the Chargers
6 Malik Nabers to the Giants
7 Taliese Fuaga to the Titans
8 Dallas Turner to the Falcons
9 Joe Alt to the Bears
10 Rome Odunze to the Jets

 

[TheDudeAbides]

They definitely kept Pace too long as the GM. He was responsible for at least a few of those.

I still remember when the Ravens moved up a few spots to get Lamar Jackson. Bold strategy that paid off in a lot of ways.

This is a common issue in the NFL. A GM trying to save his job makes a ton of moves that set the franchise back years.