NFL Draft Predictions - a pointless game, but at least it has a $$ prize for the winner
- Thread starter VikingsGuy
- Start date
BlakeA
Well-known member
Nobody's talking about it but I think the biggest problem for MIN is that the NYG are standing in their way and NYG will be taking a QB. They can get out of the Jones contract after this season and you are only picking in top 6 so often with a quality QB draft. Their #6 pick and bundles will be more attractive to awful teams like AZ and NE who are is desperate needs to get playmakers and build a roster. MIN will have to give up 4 1sts in order to leap them IMO. But maybe they are good with either Maye, JJ, or Pennix?
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I agree, but there is still an open question if giants take a qb. Their coaches/management sold ownership on Jones 10 months ago and they are late in their contracts - they may not have the option to start over with rookie qb. They may do like Vikings had under Spielman - keep thinking that if you just add one guy it will be ok. If they think a top player helps them more right now than a qb that will need a year or two they may not take a qb in the 1st. But who knows.
BlakeA
Well-known member
@VikingsGuy I just think they may as well be looking for jobs now rather than in 2025 if they don't draft their QB Thursday night. The fan base wants it and anyone who watches football knows Jones is not the franchise guy so what are you waiting for. They save their job by drafting a stud QB and bringing excitement back into the franchise. Win 7 or more games with a rookie and show you have a bright future on offense and keep your job. They won 6 games last year with Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy Devito. Dabol can get that same production at minimum even with a rookie like Maye or JJ. Plus Jones could play for first 4 games and show how bad he is again so the rook has a little time to get sped up to NFL life. It's a win now league
1) Chicago Bears - Caleb williams
2) Washington Commanders - jayden daniels
3) New England Patriots - Joe Alt
4) Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr
5) Los Angeles Chargers - Rome Odunze
6) Minnesota Vikings (Fm New York Giants)- drake maye
7) Tennessee Titans - Olu Fashanu
8) Atlanta Falcons - Malik Nabors
9) Chicago Bears - J.C Latham
10) New York Jets - Brock Bowers
66
2) Washington Commanders - jayden daniels
3) New England Patriots - Joe Alt
4) Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr
5) Los Angeles Chargers - Rome Odunze
6) Minnesota Vikings (Fm New York Giants)- drake maye
7) Tennessee Titans - Olu Fashanu
8) Atlanta Falcons - Malik Nabors
9) Chicago Bears - J.C Latham
10) New York Jets - Brock Bowers
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TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
Full Mock with trades. (Generally there are about 4-5 trades in the first round every year)
1) CHI via CAR - Caleb Williams QB USC
2) WAS - Drake Maye QB UNC
3) NE - Jayden Daniels QB LSU
4) AZ - Marvin Harrison JR WR OSU
5) MIN via LAC - JJ McCarthy QB MICH (Trade: 11 & 23 for 5)
6) NYG - Malik Nabers WR LSU
7) TEN - Joe Alt OT ND
8) ATL - Dallas Turner EDGE BAMA
9) LAC via CHI - Rome Odunze WR UW (Whatever picks make it work)
10) NYJ - Brock Bowers TE UGA
11) CHI via LAC via MIN - Jared Verse EDGE FSU
12) DEN - Bo Nix QB ORE
13) LV - Michael Penix Jr QB UW
14) NO - Brian Thomas JR WR LSU
15) IND - Quinyon Mitchell CB TOL
16) DET via SEA - Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA (Whatever picks make it work)
17) LAR via JAX - Byron Murphy II IDL UT (Whatever picks make it work)
18) CIN - Johnny Newton IDL ILL
19) JAX via LAR - Taliese Fuaga OL ORST
20) PIT - Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT PSU
21) MIA - JC Latham OT BAMA
22) PHI - Cooper DeJean DB IOWA
23) WAS via LAC - Amarius Mims OT UGA (Whatever picks make it work)
24) DAL - Troy Fautanu OT UW
25) GB - Terrion Arnold CB BAMA
26) TB - Nate Wiggins CB CLEM
27) AZ via HOU - Jackson Powers-Johnson IOL ORE
28) BUF - AD Mitchell WR UT
29) SEA via DET - Graham Barton IOL DUKE
30) BAL - TJ Tampa CB ISU
31) SF - Jordan Morgan OL AZ
32) KC - Keon Coleman WR FSU
1) CHI via CAR - Caleb Williams QB USC
2) WAS - Drake Maye QB UNC
3) NE - Jayden Daniels QB LSU
4) AZ - Marvin Harrison JR WR OSU
5) MIN via LAC - JJ McCarthy QB MICH (Trade: 11 & 23 for 5)
6) NYG - Malik Nabers WR LSU
7) TEN - Joe Alt OT ND
8) ATL - Dallas Turner EDGE BAMA
9) LAC via CHI - Rome Odunze WR UW (Whatever picks make it work)
10) NYJ - Brock Bowers TE UGA
11) CHI via LAC via MIN - Jared Verse EDGE FSU
12) DEN - Bo Nix QB ORE
13) LV - Michael Penix Jr QB UW
14) NO - Brian Thomas JR WR LSU
15) IND - Quinyon Mitchell CB TOL
16) DET via SEA - Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA (Whatever picks make it work)
17) LAR via JAX - Byron Murphy II IDL UT (Whatever picks make it work)
18) CIN - Johnny Newton IDL ILL
19) JAX via LAR - Taliese Fuaga OL ORST
20) PIT - Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT PSU
21) MIA - JC Latham OT BAMA
22) PHI - Cooper DeJean DB IOWA
23) WAS via LAC - Amarius Mims OT UGA (Whatever picks make it work)
24) DAL - Troy Fautanu OT UW
25) GB - Terrion Arnold CB BAMA
26) TB - Nate Wiggins CB CLEM
27) AZ via HOU - Jackson Powers-Johnson IOL ORE
28) BUF - AD Mitchell WR UT
29) SEA via DET - Graham Barton IOL DUKE
30) BAL - TJ Tampa CB ISU
31) SF - Jordan Morgan OL AZ
32) KC - Keon Coleman WR FSU
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
I disagree.
The Giants HC and GM are trying to save their jobs. If they take JJ, then there will be a new regime next year.
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
I mean. You could go back and revisit the comments about when the Chiefs selected Mahomes, the Bills selected Allen, the Packers selected Love, etc and Compare them to when the Jets selected Darnold or Wilson, Bears selected Fields, Cardinals selected Rosen etc.
I think it is more important to get one of the top guys and develop him rather than rely on who is a great prospect or not. I mean Herbert was seen as trash as well.
The Vikings are in a great position to develop a QB. Good OL, Good Weapons, and a Good Coach.
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
The Bears OL was average last year. Some of the issues was on the QB. I do agree they need help on the interior, but their tackles are fine and cheap.
If I had to bet, if the Bears do not trade back. They will go DL. Latu, Verse, Murphy, Newton, or Turner
BlakeA
Well-known member
But what saves their job? A 12 win season and Jones plays like a pro bowler? Is that realistic? What would you need to see from Jones in order to feel good about paying him $39 million in 2025? Do we honestly see Jones on the roster in 2025?
BlakeA
Well-known member
Oh man I hope and pray this becomes the reality. As a Steelers fan I would be beyond ecstatic if their turn comes up and Latham, Fautanu, Mims, and Fashanu are available
They would sprint to the podium
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I think the statistics say that if you have the #1 pick - you have a 50% chance of having a pro bowl caliber QB. If you have Picks #2-5 you have a 35% chance of getting a pro bowl caliber QB. Picks #6-32 and you have a 20% chance of the same. And <5% chance in rounds 2-7.
So even if a team gets exactly who they want - it is more likely than not they are wrong - such is the game. You have to take more guesses, not less.
So, the simple answer is draft as high as you can in years you are grabbing a QB, and play the game often. It may take 3 shots over 9 years, but that is better than ignoring it as my Vikes have. The Vikes haven’t used a top 6 draft pick for QB a single time. Zero pick #1-6 QBs, Zero Super Bowls. Not a coincidence.
That is not to say you can’t have 2nd or 4th round surprise - or a 6th or 7th. It happens, but it happens so very rarely it is not a viable strategy going in. SF wasn’t looking for a pro bowl QB when they picked Brock and the Pats weren’t looking for one when they drafted Brady. They both had their QB of the future on their rosters (or so they thought) and were just picking up camp arms or long term back up options.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
No extra credit for going past 10
BlakeA
Well-known member
Only reason I think they will trade back is they only have 4 total picks this year...But if they stayed put they would get 2 elite prospects which may be better than more selections. Will be interesting to see what they do!
Penix at 11 would be my most ideal scenario. I know that's not popular but I want a cool entertaining QB after the white bread family man Kirk Cousins that only cares about Pizza Ranch commercials
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
Getting to the playoffs will save their jobs, if this were Jacksonville they could go the route of QB.
It is New York, so you have to win now or you are out.
The GM has squandered a lot of great draft capital. The Giants have a ton of holes despite having a bunch of premium draft capital and spending in FA.
The Coach was great in year 1, but is also tied to Jones as well.
The Eagles are down, The cowboys are down, and the Commanders blew it up.
This is your shot right now to win the division, but due to the personnel moves this team appears to be far away.
If the Giants do not make the playoffs, then they will be looking for new jobs after wasting the opportunity with this job.
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
It really depends.Oh man I hope and pray this becomes the reality. As a Steelers fan I would be beyond ecstatic if their turn comes up and Latham, Fautanu, Mims, and Fashanu are available
If Denver, LV, and NO do not go QB, then I think it will be unlikely. With the Raiders and Saints probably going OL instead.
If Nix and Penix go in those three picks, then either the EDGEs, Corners, and/or OL will fall.
You could see a run early or later depending on where the QB's go or do not go.
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
Pro Bowl is a tough metric, because Mitch Trubisky was a pro bowler and he is not a franchise QB.
I do agree that you want to draft a QB earlier though. If you do not take one in the 1st, then I would just take a shot in the later rounds rather than on day 2.
I do think that getting a QB in the first is the way to go. The league has a hard time evaluating QB's, but if you think one is the guy. Then you move up and take him.
Kansas City gave up a 1st, 3rd, and future first for Mahomes. Buffalo gave up a 1st, Offensive tackle (Cinny swap), and 2 seconds to move up for Allen, The packers gave up some picks to go get Love with Rodgers on the roster, The ravens gave up picks to go and get Jackson, etc. You never know who could end up being elite.
Like I said, Herbert, Allen, Love, Mahomes, Jackson, etc all had their detractors.
Teams have made it work with them.
It is still worth it rather than relying on a Ryan Tannehilll, Jimmy G, Gardner Minshew, etc
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
The Bears GM is a wildcard.
Blew up the roster and then tried to sign an expensive mediocre DT and traded for Chase Claypool.
Trades back and up a lot.
Go, there is no telling what he will do.
The Bears trading up can happen, because they have future picks.
The Bears staying put and taking the player they want.
The Bears trading back and getting more picks this year.
All could happen with the current Bears GM.
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