Nevada Elk Question

[Elkmagnet]

Okay I think I see where i may have stepped off the path. somehow I can't get over thinking of it as five individual unit drawings instead of one drawing with all applicants.

So if what you are saying is correct you're going to spend half of your time with your odds actually decreasing by the year. Correct?

Anyone have the actual total number of apps for last year?

 

[Flatrock]

I could be totally wrong, but here's how I understand the NV draw works: Depending on your number of points and how many times your name goes in the hat, you get assigned a random number for each time in the hat. (the numbers must go into the millions...) Whoever has the lowest number, they look at their 5 hunt choices and he would get his first choice unit. For the guy with the 2nd lowest number, they again look at all 5 hunt choices and if a tag is available, he gets a tag. (Obviously he'll draw since he's the 2nd guy) When they get to say the 50th guy, most if not all tags will be given out by then. They'll still go down his list of 5 hunt choices. If he "swung for the fence" on the first 4, he's probably not going to draw any of those but then if he has an easy to draw unit as his last choice, MAYBE he'll draw.

Along these lines, that's why the draw odds tables off the NV website are so misleading. They're only showing you a certain unit and the number of FIRST choice apps. Not a lot of guys are going to put down the easiest to draw unit first so the true draw odds are very skewed.

I'm sure the Gohunt odds aren't completely accurate but I feel like they are probably very close and at least give a guy some realistic odds.

Again, I'm not 100% certain that's how the draw really works but that's how I understand it.

 

[Boomstick]

I was suspicious about the Nevada non resident odds that everyone was publishing, so i dug into it a little. It seemed odd to me that every magazine article I saw with a non resident on a premium hunt there, they always had a guide with them. My suspicion was that only non residents entering the guide draw were receiving tags in the premium units. It seemed odd that all of the published odds for non residents never mentioned the guide draw quotas, so i called NDOW and my suspicions were confirmed. What nobody tells you is that the guide draw quota comes from the non resident tag pool, and that the guide draw happens before the rest of the non residents even get a chance! The pleasant lady on the other end of the phone told me that it was ok because the guide draw was capped. The problem is that it is capped by total tags and not tags per individual unit. I told her that was terrible because the outfitters in Nevada were applying clients for the best units and all of the premium rifle tags for mule deer were taken before the other non residents even had a chance. She reluctantly admitted that was probably true. So i asked why i should even bother sending my $230.00 anymore.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Maybe I am reading your comment incorrectly, but all five of your choices are relevant, as the system looks at all five choices before going on to the next applicant. So, making your first 4 choices be high-demand hunts is a good strategy, with a lower-demand hunt as your 5th choice if you just want to go hunting.

That was my interpretation of the way our draw works. I may very well be wrong.
In NV there are no "low demand" bull elk hunts, especially for non-residents.

 

[Big Fin]

Just for clarification, the Nevada draw works like this.

Everyone is put in the draw based on their point total for that species. Your points are squared and you are assigned a random number for every point you have, including your current year application. So, an applicant with 10 points gets assigned 101 random numbers (10x10 +1). The guy with 4 points gets 17 random numbers (4x4 +1).

Once all random numbers are assigned, you get to use your lowest random number for purposes of the draw order for that species. As a result, the person with the most assigned random numbers has the greatest likelihood of his lowest random number being lower than guys assigned fewer random numbers.

Once each applicant's lowest random number is sorted out, the draw starts, awarding tags in order of random numbers, starting with the lowest random number. When they get to your random number, they look to see if your first choice has any tags left. If so, you get a tag. If not, they look at your second choice. If no tags left for your second choice, they go to your third choice. This continues through all five of your choices, until finding a hunt code that has remaining tags. If there are no remaining tags for any of your choices, you are awarded another bonus point for the following year and they go to the next random number and repeat the same process.

It is the fact that Nevada looks at all five of the applicant's choices that makes it so incorrect to use "simplified odds" as published by all the other services other than goHUNT INSIDER. In many instances, your simplified odds might be 10%, but your true odds are less than 1%. That is a huge swing.

 

[Boomstick]

What I was getting at is that the odds may be even worse than Gohunt is publishing also. Because those odds still don't take into consideration the hundreds of rifle elk and deer tags that the outfitters take off the top. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[Howdy]

I drew with 13
wife drew with 10

 

[LopeHunter]

What I was getting at is that the odds may be even worse than Gohunt is publishing also. Because those odds still don't take into consideration the hundreds of rifle elk and deer tags that the outfitters take off the top. Correct me if I am wrong.

I think only deer have an outfitter allotment in Nevada. I drew with my brother on a joint application a few years ago in the outfitter draw.

We were non-residents and drew. Our deer points fell to zero so the next year would have just one random number for the deer draw. Our tags were pulled from the non-resident pool so when the next stage of the deer draw takes place those tags were gone. We were not guaranteed tags so presumably only some tags can be awarded during the guided deer draw.

My understanding is by applying in the guided draw that we were competing against a smaller number of applicants for a smaller number of tags so some years our odds could be better but other years could be worse than the regular draw. If that is true, that is similar to Wyoming which has a Special tag bucket with 40% of all non-resident tags at a higher price per tag and usually offers better odds than the Regular tag bucket but not always.

 

[LopeHunter]

Since I got curious re impact of Guided Deer draw on the Regular Deer Draw, I went and looked at one of the reports. From 2013.

http://www.ndow.org/uploadedFiles/n...ources/Mule Deer Draw and Hunt Results(1).pdf

If I look at Antlered Any Weapon Mule Deer 035 in the Non-resident tables:
Guided Apps total was 18 and 2 tags were awarded.
Regular Apps total was 50 and 9 tags were awarded.

If I look at Antlered Any Weapon Mule Deer 241 - 245 in the Non-resident tables:
Guided Apps total was 166 and 4 tags were awarded.
Regular Apps total was 832 and 5 tags were awarded.

The ratio of Guided to Regular tags awarded varies in those 2 examples. Not sure if the cap, and there is one or else zero tags would fall into the Regular draw, is by unit or region or statewide.

 

[Boomstick]

I was told the cap was statewide and and the guide draw took place for both deer and elk rifle tags. Once the outfitter quota number is hit statewide, then the non resident regular draw would occur. So it is a gamble on which outfitters get lucky in what unit. If all the outfitters put in for 241-245 rifle, there would be 0 tags for anyone else. I guess it's a good thing outfitters hunt the rest of the state as well

 

[jrabq]

I was told the cap was statewide and and the guide draw took place for both deer and elk rifle tags.

No, as stated above the guide draw is deer only, there is no guide drawing for non-res elk.

 

[LopeHunter]

I was told the cap was statewide and and the guide draw took place for both deer and elk rifle tags. Once the outfitter quota number is hit statewide, then the non resident regular draw would occur. So it is a gamble on which outfitters get lucky in what unit. If all the outfitters put in for 241-245 rifle, there would be 0 tags for anyone else. I guess it's a good thing outfitters hunt the rest of the state as well

I do not see any mention at F&G of a draw for elk where outfitter's have a preference. I checked a couple of outfitter/guide websites and only deer is mentioned as having a guide draw.

 

[Boomstick]

Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Antcap]

Thank you for explaining the NV draw system perfectly Randy. All 5 choices are relivent so make your choices count. There are a few sleeper units that not a lot of people put in for. Look and see what units residents put in for but not a lot of NR. Residents know the country and the conditions of the elk a little better than some publications. If you're only looking for rut hunts then NV isn't the state for even residents to apply. Very steep odds for everyone. As a resident, most people including myself that I know that have drawn had between 8-12 pts. It's a long wait but soo worth it. Looking at the bonus point data, every year people even draw numerous sheep tags with zero points and this is why applying in NV keeps you on the edge of your seat. Good luck to everyone and don't be so quick to give up on this awesome state!

 

[dmserpa]

Keep talking Randy,,,maybe you can discourage people from putting in for Nev.,,that way us with 12 points can maybe draw????:hump:

 

[IdahoMtnBoy]

I buy points for Elk, Deer and Sheep every year. Simply put, can't win if you don't play.

I have a couple buddies who guide in NV and they have multiple clients for Elk each year that draw with less than 10 points.

I'm looking at it as a one time deal for elk and a good option for some archery deer hunts. MAYBE I'll hit the jackpot and draw a Sheep tag too!

 

[nvgoosehntr]

Nevada is tough - on the positive side it is a lottery, my sister in law drew a NR bull tag this year with 6 points but my brother in law has 13 and has not drawn yet. As a non resident by the time he draws he may have spent enough money and license and tag fees to have bought a landowner tag. I am a resident with 8 points but my wife drew a bull tag this year with only 4. As residents we will buy a license every year so we put in no matter what but I know the odds of drawing a NR tag are astronomical and you have to buy a license to get the point - this is the negative side plus the NR tag fee isn't cheap either. Seems to come down to a $$ issue for the non residents - whether or not they can afford to enter the lottery - like they say you cant win if you don't play, or maybe more accurately you can't dream about winning if you don't play....