The other variable you can't figure into it is the 238 that didn't draw with 2 last year probably got a returned tag from the guys who didn't get their limited entry tag which would take their 2pts.You are underestimating the point buyers who just bought a point in '22 and will buy another at time of app. That is the missing variable in the 12,000+ in line from last year + the 0pt allocation
No way to ever know in MT, I would take the over at 90% odds of drawing with 2 pref points. Guessing 93-95%, we will see in a week or so