January Inflation

[JAG]

I can't even begin to guess what the mental conflict he has on drilling in the Gulf. I tend to think it is pretty flexible.

Florida is a cash cow for tourism, and the state's residents fiercely protect their white sand beaches from any potential threat of change.

I personally think if they had a similar restriction as California and drilled out of sight from the beach, it would exponentially escalate Floridian industries related to fish harvests.

 

[SAJ-99]

Prolonged Trade War May Wipe Out 50% Of China’s Oil Demand Growth — Forbes

A prolonged global trade war could have an outsized effect on China's oil demand, according to one research outfit. That would likely mean an oil price slump.

apple.news

@SAJ-99 drop in prices at the pump? Significant reduction in fracking production?

That article talks about 50% drop in demand growth. That could certainly happen. Or if US goes into recession and global demand will certainly drop. If prices go too low, Saudi's may rethink their favor to Trump to lift export limits. The reality of crude oil is that companies (and countries) need to make money and no one is pumping oil at a loss for long. US investors in US oil companies have zero patience for that. Flip side to Global Macro stuff is China has no problem buying Russian or Iranian oil at a discount. Tariffs are just going to strengthen that relationship. The interesting time will come in a few years when the tier 1 assets in Permian start to disappear. The price of oil has to go up and we need to continue on path to EVs.

US's self-imposed restrictions against energy independence.

Sorry JAG. That is myth. There are no restrictions of any type on energy independence. We are pumping a LOT of oil. Americans love cheap gas, so all politicians love cheap gas. I always joked that if you could wave a magic wand and get every barrel of proven reserves out of the ground for $20, Oil company CEO's would sign on in a New York minute, sell it, buy islands and hook up solar and electric, while eventually leaving the average American standing at the pump with nothing to buy. Capitalism.

Good luck in the WY draw.

 

[SAJ-99]

@SAJ-99

Are you in the oil industry?

You always seem to have a very deep knowledge of the oil stuff.

I will add that today you see the price falling 2% and the news is "US/Iran progress". The news explanation is almost comical. You have to believe that 1. Some deal will every get worked out (this one is funny because any new deal is going to look like the one Obama and the rest of the World signed on to and Trump pulled out of in first term) and 2) Iran oil is somehow not hitting market now (also comical because we know China is buying it.)
So yeah, go long oil if you believe headline news. I tend to think it is more "recession is coming" than "talks with Iran".

 

[Sytes]

Thank you @Northwoods for calling all out ALL involved in the b.s. antics while pandering innocence at the expense of one with a differing position.

With that, to those extremes involved in your collective pom pom cheering / hyped, anti like-minded, closed to opposing opinions, keep your blue thumbs to yourselves - I'm not part of your clique nor have interest in your doomsday, closed minded key stroking. UNLESS you're interested placing your $ where your key stroking mouth yammers.

This applies towards ONLY the extremes that many hunt talk members identify reading though lack interest posting due to the menacing behavior of the vocal key stroker club kids.

A few quality opinions shared, even amidst the clique's assault on the opposing opinion shared, based on views i may disagree though hold reasoned thought.

I'm not a fan of this admin's sweeping action though in many regards it's working. New trade deals made that have, for a long while, been ignored at the expense of competitive reciprocal trade.

I'm not a fan of this admin's action towards Canada. That's a period - end of sentance. This could have and should have been managed as neighboring partners at the negotiating table.
My period lags with Mexico as we've extended beyond reciprocal though again, as with Canada, should have been at the neighboring negotiating table.

I'm not a fan of the rhetoric of the admin though it has shaken many to realize the emphasis of carrying a big stick... wish this admin had the speak softly portion Theodore Roosevelt claimed in his quote, the even he was quite boisterous so...

Meh,

People say they are losing mass $... yes - to those who fail in the mid/long term objective.

If you're death is imminent in the next year or two... maybe you're taking a hit - then again, buh-bye regardless.

If you're living beyond the next couple years and financially intelligent to work within a retirement portfolio, you're fine JUST AS YOU WERE AFTER COVID.

 If you live by the seat of your pants with your life's investments playing the market... you reap what you sow.

Best to all!