January Inflation

[SilentBirdHunter]

Core CPI rose in January to 3.3%.

Energy prices with 1.8% MoM rise in gasoline prices
The food index increased with the greatest rise in two years. A large component of that rise was driven by a 15.2% MoM increase in egg prices. This marked the largest jump since 2015, in part due to the ongoing Avian flu.

Not shocking news to anyone who pumped gas or bought groceries in January.

My fear is inflation is sticky and with tariffs likely to increase.
What goes up, rarely comes down.

The fed may not reduce interest rates anytime soon.

 

[elevatorman]

I'm not worried. The leveling of the playing field via tariffs is going to hugely benefit us. Not to mention saving billions if not trillions in cut out fraud and abuse and waste. Everyone scared if tariffs seems to forget EVERYONE else already tariffs us heavily! Look at what Canada tariffs us at. Insane. It's been a one way bludgeoning with us paying for it. Apple just announce what a half a trillion in manufacturing they're about to build in good old America. It's already working.

 

[SAJ-99]

Apple just announce what a half a trillion in manufacturing they're about to build in good old America

Promises are just for publicity. Bootlicking, if you will.
How is this plant coming along?

Trump announces $10B Foxconn plant in Wisconsin

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Wednesday that electronics giant Foxconn will build a $10 billion factory in Wisconsin that’s expected to initially create 3,000 jobs, the largest economic development project in state history. The announcement comes at a critical juncture for a Trump...

www.timesrepublican.com

 

[noharleyyet]

Promises are just for publicity. Bootlicking, if you will.
How is this plant coming along?

Trump announces $10B Foxconn plant in Wisconsin

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Wednesday that electronics giant Foxconn will build a $10 billion factory in Wisconsin that’s expected to initially create 3,000 jobs, the largest economic development project in state history. The announcement comes at a critical juncture for a Trump...

www.timesrepublican.com

Not well...

Foxconn plant, once touted by Trump as a 13,000-job juggernaut, will now create just 1,500 jobs

Former President Donald Trump said the Wisconsin factory complex would be "the eighth wonder of the world."

www.nbcnews.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Not well...

Foxconn plant, once touted by Trump as a 13,000-job juggernaut, will now create just 1,500 jobs

Former President Donald Trump said the Wisconsin factory complex would be "the eighth wonder of the world."

www.nbcnews.com

Yeah, it was rhetorical. LOL. But I'm sure you knew that.
That 2017 announcement was so Apple could get exclusions from the first set of tariffs. The most recent announcement is more of the same, probably? Would love to be wrong, although most of the money is going to be in R&D which is already done in the US. (another amazing example of controlling the narrative). Mostly I'm responding to another claim of tariffs being the proverbial "free lunch". Let's get 'em started.

 

[trackerbacker]

Yeah, it was rhetorical. LOL. But I'm sure you knew that.
That 2017 announcement was so Apple could get exclusions from the first set of tariffs. The most recent announcement is more of the same, probably? Would love to be wrong, although most of the money is going to be in R&D which is already done in the US. (another amazing example of controlling the narrative). Mostly I'm responding to another claim of tariffs being the proverbial "free lunch". Let's get 'em started.

I see why you sent me this way. ETA-i think we agree?

Tariffs work, or they wouldn't be what they are. Are they the best tool for the job, no not at all. I'd wager tariffs themselves, the instrument, is awful. About right there with a VAT. Very generally speaking.

However, some tools are great at things they weren't made for doing, like threatening, squeeze and negotiating.

Eventually, administratively (which is what other countries strategically have going against us, time on the election clock) the usefulness wanes. It's a clock MGMT game when you start with tariffs.

Which oddly, makes them easy to hedge against (apple-like saj99 stated) in the pro column, and longing against (china-currency valuation games) in the cons column. But again, time. Time works against all parties.

China etc knows at max, 4, maybe 8 years, low odds of 12. Their issue, my viewpoint, they've manipulated too much too frequently lately (as in couple decades) to continue the offensive. However. Devaluing comes at a risk too... Ever had a stock squeezed on you, and squeezed, and squeezed... resistance vs support levels....squeeze too much and pop some confidence to boot and wallah. So what they do and how long this goes will be interesting. My Chinese counterparts aren't happy, though they are happy it's swelled demand to a point...very niche market, so probably not applicable as a macro trend

Apple etc knows also. At minimum next earnings report, at max next new iPhone release. They just have to move quick and ride the momentum up, stay out of the bad news. After that, goldfish kicks in, fanbois hit the new releases, stock up. Erryone happy.

Trump etc knows also, they have a finite time to attack, while simultaneously defending it against the Dems, knowing one domino fell. If it's two or 3 more it's enough to say see, I got a few trillion invested stateside...win...

It's a ho hummer for sure. Everyone's shorting and longing and squeezing eachother, that all are making money, but at different points and different gains and different levels.

The people pay, just like companies don't pay taxes-people pay.

So. Tariffs in my opinion are awful financial instruments, pretty bad but somehow effective at stirring the markets.

 

[trackerbacker]

Not well...

Foxconn plant, once touted by Trump as a 13,000-job juggernaut, will now create just 1,500 jobs

Former President Donald Trump said the Wisconsin factory complex would be "the eighth wonder of the world."

www.nbcnews.com

Promises are just for publicity. Bootlicking, if you will.
How is this plant coming along?

Trump announces $10B Foxconn plant in Wisconsin

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Wednesday that electronics giant Foxconn will build a $10 billion factory in Wisconsin that’s expected to initially create 3,000 jobs, the largest economic development project in state history. The announcement comes at a critical juncture for a Trump...

www.timesrepublican.com

Pretty well. Microsoft ended up at 3.3b vs foxconn 10.8b? pre COVID. Which seems like a whiff at 3.3b but that's still a win by a few orders in that market.

Most funding was state level it appears (then and now) readjusted and changed from 2017 on until msft stepped in to reap the rewards.

Doesn't seem like a bad deal all around. Though msft is changing scope again, AI id imagine, but who knows...

...could be some super secret gain of function lab bill gates is building to entrap the world....

Or some drivel

 

[SAJ-99]

I see why you sent me this way. ETA-i think we agree?

Tariffs work, or they wouldn't be what they are. Are they the best tool for the job, no not at all. I'd wager tariffs themselves, the instrument, is awful. About right there with a VAT. Very generally speaking.

However, some tools are great at things they weren't made for doing, like threatening, squeeze and negotiating.

Eventually, administratively (which is what other countries strategically have going against us, time on the election clock) the usefulness wanes. It's a clock MGMT game when you start with tariffs.

Which oddly, makes them easy to hedge against (apple-like saj99 stated) in the pro column, and longing against (china-currency valuation games) in the cons column. But again, time. Time works against all parties.

China etc knows at max, 4, maybe 8 years, low odds of 12. Their issue, my viewpoint, they've manipulated too much too frequently lately (as in couple decades) to continue the offensive. However. Devaluing comes at a risk too... Ever had a stock squeezed on you, and squeezed, and squeezed... resistance vs support levels....squeeze too much and pop some confidence to boot and wallah. So what they do and how long this goes will be interesting. My Chinese counterparts aren't happy, though they are happy it's swelled demand to a point...very niche market, so probably not applicable as a macro trend

Apple etc knows also. At minimum next earnings report, at max next new iPhone release. They just have to move quick and ride the momentum up, stay out of the bad news. After that, goldfish kicks in, fanbois hit the new releases, stock up. Erryone happy.

Trump etc knows also, they have a finite time to attack, while simultaneously defending it against the Dems, knowing one domino fell. If it's two or 3 more it's enough to say see, I got a few trillion invested stateside...win...

It's a ho hummer for sure. Everyone's shorting and longing and squeezing eachother, that all are making money, but at different points and different gains and different levels.

The people pay, just like companies don't pay taxes-people pay.

So. Tariffs in my opinion are awful financial instruments, pretty bad but somehow effective at stirring the markets.

Largely agree about the time. Promise today and drag it out. It's not like this stuff can build in six months. Trump just wants the positive press from the announcement. If (when) it goes bad someone else will get the blame. You see that in the datacenter announcements today. Companies building new stuff get announcements with the President, companies that try to move manufacturing somewhere else get to hide that news in the back.

Markets don't like to be stirred. They want predictability.

 

[Treeshark]

Not well...

Foxconn plant, once touted by Trump as a 13,000-job juggernaut, will now create just 1,500 jobs

Former President Donald Trump said the Wisconsin factory complex would be "the eighth wonder of the world."

www.nbcnews.com

We got absolutely fleeced by that deal, but you could see it coming pretty clearly.

 

[Hem]

Its all Carter, Clinton, Obama, Bidens fault.

 

[trackerbacker]

Largely agree about the time. Promise today and drag it out. It's not like this stuff can build in six months. Trump just wants the positive press from the announcement. If (when) it goes bad someone else will get the blame. You see that in the datacenter announcements today. Companies building new stuff get announcements with the President, companies that try to move manufacturing somewhere else get to hide that news in the back.

Markets don't like to be stirred. They want predictability.

Whoa.... volatility is how I trade, shut up.

 

[trackerbacker]

Its all Carter, Clinton, Obama, Bidens fault.View attachment 361903

 

[SilentBirdHunter]

I'm not worried. The leveling of the playing field via tariffs is going to hugely benefit us. Not to mention saving billions if not trillions in cut out fraud and abuse and waste. Everyone scared if tariffs seems to forget EVERYONE else already tariffs us heavily! Look at what Canada tariffs us at. Insane. It's been a one way bludgeoning with us paying for it. Apple just announce what a half a trillion in manufacturing they're about to build in good old America. It's already working.

The only policy I see that is aimed at inflation is the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates until "sticky inflation" approaches the target 2%. It is likely to rise in February, just as it did in January.

Unfortunately, what goes up in price, rarely goes down.

 

[Sytes]

 

[Brandon270]

Overall tariffs make me uncomfortable. I understand he used it as leverage to make the weaker countries back down, but if some of the bigger ones call his bluff I only see it hurting us as consumers.

I have a small welding business so the steel tariffs definitely have an impact and I'm already seeing it. Even if the u.s. steel mills start making more here I'm wondering how much that will actually bring down price if at all. There's a local hydraulic repair shop that subs out all of their welding repairs to me. The owner told me the other day the price of a cylinder he buys often for some heavy equipment jumped to $4800 when a couple months ago the same one was $3500.

 

[brymoore]

Overall tariffs make me uncomfortable. I understand he used it as leverage to make the weaker countries back down, but if some of the bigger ones call his bluff I only see it hurting us as consumers.

I have a small welding business so the steel tariffs definitely have an impact and I'm already seeing it. Even if the u.s. steel mills start making more here I'm wondering how much that will actually bring down price if at all. There's a local hydraulic repair shop that subs out all of their welding repairs to me. The owner told me the other day the price of a cylinder he buys often for some heavy equipment jumped to $4800 when a couple months ago the same one was $3500.

U.S steel mills will raise the price of its steel to match the tariff steel.

 

[Brandon270]

U.S steel mills will raise the price of its steel to match the tariff steel.

That's my fear, so in the end what's the benefit of tariffs?

 

[brymoore]

That's my fear, so in the end what's the benefit of tariffs?

It’s what happened with other products in the first round of tariffs in 2018 (? Too lazy to look up year). My customers said the domestic products all raised prices equivalent to the tariff. My customers then raised the price of it’s products due to increased component prices.

 

[Potsie]

That's my fear, so in the end what's the benefit of tariffs?

Bingo.

 

[Potsie]