Is Bush Starting to slip??

[feclnogn]

Looks like last Thursday is starting to show up in the polls. Last week Bush was up 317EC votes to Kerry's 207.

Here is todays map. Kerry 253 Bush 264

This map does not include Zogby which has Kerry up to 306 EC votes, it also does not include the new Rasmussen Polls. The Rasmussen Polls show Bush loosing about .33% points a day. He shows Bush with 47.2% next to Kerry who has 46.9%.

I believe Rasmussen and Zogby will show up on the EC map tomorrow or Satruday and will show Kerry in the lead.

I think the question now with this election is can Bush step up to the plate and deliver on Friday. If not game over.

I think these numbers really speak to the weakness of Bush as a candidate. It's hard to believe that this country could potentially put an individual such as Kerry in the White House. Bush either needs a knock out in the next two debates, with the first major blow tomorrow or Rove needs to pull out a huge October surprise. Rove has stated that that he has two things to throw at Kerry what will they be............???????

 

[JoseCuervo]

Fecl,

Don't hold your breath waiting for Dubya to win on Friday's debate. It is focused on Domestic issues, Dubya's weakest area....

The fact Dubya stumbled so badly on Foreign policy does not bode well for his next debate.

 

[feclnogn]

Don't hold your breath waiting for Dubya to win on Friday's debate. It is focused on Domestic issues, Dubya's weakest area....

I'm not holding my breath at all. I have low expectations for Friday. I do think that with real people at the debate and some interaction with the audience that Bush might actually surprise some. On the other hand watching Kerry on TV this last week you can see he has been recharged with energy and confidence.

I don't know when Bush will be completely written off, but I think it might be coming soon.

Then again who the hell knows whats going to happen in the next 3 weeks.

Iran getting hit by Israel??

Kerrys full records coming out??

A rumored photo of Kerry burnign or pissing on an American Flag in the early 70's.
?? (I think this one is bogus, we would have seen it by now)

Or Bush just plows into the gound in a flaming electoral wreck.

 

[JoseCuervo]

I don't think Dubya will implode. I think Barbara has threatened Rove and Karen Hughes with their lives, if they allow her son to be turned out after 1 term, like her husband got turned out.

My guess is that if the UN/Jimmy Carter does not station observers at the polls in Florida, then Dubya wins.....

 

[Nemont]

I think that all the stops will be pulled out in these last couple of weeks to sling alot MORE mud at Kerry and to see what sticks.

If the President has another bad debate I think you will see the panic mode set in. Sean Hannity, Rush and others in conservative talk radio are clearly concerned because they have ratcheted uup the rhetoric.

I think if the news out of Iraq turns really ugly over the next couple of weeks and poor economic numbers come out the President will be in real bad trouble.

If I were advising JFK I would say keep attacking Bushes record, muzzle Teresa or at least don't let her near a reporter, let Mrs. John Edwards tell her husbands story for him and don't mention the word Vietnam until January 05.

Bush needs to attack Kerry's voting record in the Senate, paint him into a corner on Iraq, continue the flip/flop rhetoric, get off of Health Care, keep Laura and twins on the campaign trail and let Cheney do the dirty work of attacking the opposition personally.

Nemont

[ 10-07-2004, 10:26: Message edited by: Nemont ]

 

[Ten Bears]

Well said NEMONT.

 

[feclnogn]

I think that all the stops will be pulled out in these last couple of weeks to sling alot MORE mud at Kerry and to see what sticks.

If the President has another bad debate I think you will see the panic mode set in. Sean Hannit, Rush and others in conservative talk radio are clearly concerned because they have ratcheted uup the rhetoric.

I think if the news out of Iraq turns really ugly over the next couple of weeks and poor economic numbers come you the President will be in real bad trouble.

If I were advising JFK I would say keep attacking Bushes record, muzzle Teresa or at least don't let her near a reporter, let Mrs. John Edwards tell her husbands story for him and don't mention the word Vietnam until January 05.

Bush needs to attack Kerry's voting record in the Senate, paint him into a corner on Iraq, continue the flip/flop rhetoric, get off of Health Care, keep Laura and twins on the campaign trail and let Cheney do the dirty work of attacking the opposition personally.

Nemont

and a photo of Kerry burnign a flag would be nice as well.

I have no idea how this will turn out but If Bush does do bad tomorrow I think you are right Nemont, all out panic mode. I saw Hannity on TV last week after the debate and the poor guy looked like he had been kicked in the nuts.

The polls could also be completely wrong, also when folks walk into the booth on the 2nd I think many folks will just not be able to pull the lever for Kerry even though they think Iraq is a mess and Bush is not doing a good job.

I look forward to this being over. This is causing me great stress and I am not the type to stress out over much of anything.

 

[feclnogn]

Found this surfing around, talks about the upcoming strategy. Shock and AWe is what they are calling it.

THE "FLIP-FLOP" CHARGE WAS A DIVERSION?

The guys at CrushKerry.com interview a GOP campaign operative - I think I know who they're talking to, and if I'm right, their description of his title and duties is accurate - and get a sense of an emerging strategy shift on the Bush campaign:

We recently expressed our frustration over the “flip-flop” narrative with a veteran GOP campaign operative in daily contact with, and in some cases working side by side with, high-level "Bush/Cheney 04" campaign officials, and asked them why, given all the evidence that this message had long since played itself out, did the campaign continue to hammer away on it, ala Bush v. Clinton, ‘92? When were Republicans going to pummel this clown with his own record ala Reagan v. Mondale, ’84 and Bush v. Dukakis, ’88?
“October,” the operative, who asked to remain nameless, told us. “We couldn’t stay quiet all year. And if we’d been hitting him [Kerry] on his liberal record all year, it would have grown stale and lost its punch, like the flip-flop stuff has. The plan was always to barrage him with his record and brand him a Massachusetts and Washington liberal during the crucial month of October.”

So the “flip-flop” stuff was just entertaining background noise?

“That’s exactly right,” we were told. “Look, we know we can beat John Kerry on his liberal voting record. But that decision is made in finality by most voters during the closing days of an election. We needed to give people something to talk about for the past year while Kerry has tried to slash the President down with his vicious, negative attacks.”

But now the campaign is on? We’re going to see and hear a more offensive posture from the President and his campaign?

“Absolutely. I think you could call it ‘Shock and Awe.’ You’ll know it when you see it,” our source said.

We can’t wait. And we urge the President to give us more of what he gave us yesterday.


Of course, I can't help but wonder why this new focus on Kerry's liberalism didn't start with the first debate. Or maybe it did start in the first debate, and I just missed it among all the "workin' hard... hard work" comments.

On the other hand, if this plan works - Kerry is defined as the epitome of Massachusetts liberalism, then it will be a much more effective and satisfying victory for conservatives if Kerry is rejected by the voters because of his liberalism instead of his indecisiveness or inability to stick to one position for a period of time.

On the other, other hand... if Kerry wins, then it is an unmitigated victory for liberalism.

 

[feclnogn]

, muzzle Teresa or at least don't let her near a reporter

How about this doozy

John and Teresa Do Dr. Phil
And how very different they are from the Bushes.
by David Skinner
10/07/2004 12:00:00 AM
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FOLLOWING UP on his interview with the Bushes, Dr. Phil today rolled the film on his interview with John Kerry and Teresa Heinz. One could hear the congestion in the senator's voice as he was apparently suffering from a cold during the taping. Dr. Phil was again accompanied by his wife Robin, who contributed questions as the foursome talked of co-parenting, blended families, divorce, and the candidate's childhood.

The most surprising moment came early on, though it had been teased in the opening: Teresa Heinz, not for the first time in public, made reference to miscarriages she suffered during her marriage to Senator John Heinz. "I call them piggies," she said, meaning the fetuses that did not make it to term.
Unsettling as that topic was, Dr. Phil and his wife politely kept the conversation moving. Unlike his mentor Oprah, Dr. Phil is not a master of the spontaneous moment. It is a failing also of the edited, taped set-up, in comparison with the live interviews Oprah did with Bush and Al Gore in 2000, that one had almost no sense of exactly how long the discomfort lingered.

The discussion remained weird and unreal for much of the interview. Which is not, incidentally, to suggest the Bushes were models of candor. But one did get the impression from last week's show that, if you were new acquaintances, conversation over coffee on a Sunday afternoon with the Bushes would probably be very much like the one they had with Phil and wife. But with Kerry

speaking from behind the fog of whatever croup he'd picked up, Dr. Phil and his wife working very hard to be polite, and Teresa, as usual, playing a solo without hearing a contrary note from anyone else, it was hard to get much of a read on the conversation.

Also, it's Phil's style to, even as he talks tough, employ socially approved euphemisms. He asked Kerry how he kept his daughters from feeling like their lives were changing when their parents had split up and their father was in Washington. Kerry offered that he helped them with their homework over the phone. Instantly Dr. Phil beefed up the answer with some consultant-speak. "You put it [being a father] on 'project status.'"

The Democratic couple talked of the strain of the campaign on their family. Teresa, in her inimitable way, said, "It's not a life. It's a tunnel. There's an end." By which she apparently meant Election Day, though when Dr. Phil tried grilling her on what it would mean for such an outspoken woman to become first lady, she denied that it was a big deal. She knew "the process," and she was "philosophical" about it. She realized, she said, "there are people who don't like me because I am married to my husband."

Usually Dr. Phil makes his guest out to look and sound worse than they really are. Here the dynamic was just the opposite. Conflicts turned out to be, under close scrutiny, not conflicts at all. Kerry insisted, "I bent over backwards to never force my life on my kids," but said he was deeply gratified that his younger daughter was taking time off from medical school to be a part of the campaign. He always put his children first, Kerry said, but he had to credit his first wife Julia Thorne with making up for many of "deficits" as a parent."

 

[Hangar18]

From the SF Chronicle

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/10/06/BAG9794BPO1.DTL

Debate-able spin: Hours before Tuesday night's vice-presidential debate, The Chronicle editorial department had received no fewer than four letters to the editor -- each declaring John Edwards the debate winner, both on substance and style.

From the Cincinnati Inquirer
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/10/06/editorial_ed1hot.html

Wednesday, October 6, 2004
Pre-debate spin

Hot air


"My wife and I are an undecided voters in Florida. My parents are undecided and live in Ohio. My brother and his wife are undecided and live in Pennsylvania.

That is, we all were undecided until we saw the Edwards-Cheney debate this evening. After watching Edwards dismantle Cheney, we have all decided to vote for Kerry-Edwards en masse. And not just the family members I just mentioned; all of my neighbors happened to be undecided and they all told me after the debate that they are going to vote for Kerry-Edwards as well. My family members in Ohio and Pennsylvania report the same thing. In other words, I can say with great confidence that, as a result of the Edwards demolition of Cheney this evening, approximately 600 formerly undecided voters have decided to vote for Kerry-Edwards.

All because Edwards did such a good job tonight."

---

The most interesting thing about the opinion stated above is that it popped into the Enquirer's e-mail Letters to the Editor file at 4:58 p.m. Tuesday, more that four hours before the debate between Vice President Dick Cheney and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Edwards, was scheduled to begin. And it wasn't the only one we got. As hot air goes, this rivals Mount St. Helens.

Last, from the WSJ

The Wall Street Journal received this comment by e-mail yesterday (Oct 5), signed "Willis O'Herlihay": </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> I was going to vote for Bush but then I saw the Vice Presidential debate.

John Edwards is so CUTE!!!!

He hit every answer out of the ballpark! And his hair RULES!!!!!

I'm DEFINITELY voting for Kerry/Edwards now!

This election is so OVER! America is finally going to get the President it DESERVES!!!!

Why don't those stupid Republican just give up already???? I mean, they don't even have good HAIRCUTS

The e-mail was sent at 4:58 p.m., four hours and two minutes before the debate began. </font>[/QUOTE]

 

[feclnogn]

"My wife and I are an undecided voters in Florida. My parents are undecided and live in Ohio. My brother and his wife are undecided and live in Pennsylvania.

That is, we all were undecided until we saw the Edwards-Cheney debate this evening. After watching Edwards dismantle Cheney, we have all decided to vote for Kerry-Edwards en masse. And not just the family members I just mentioned; all of my neighbors happened to be undecided and they all told me after the debate that they are going to vote for Kerry-Edwards as well. My family members in Ohio and Pennsylvania report the same thing. In other words, I can say with great confidence that, as a result of the Edwards demolition of Cheney this evening, approximately 600 formerly undecided voters have decided to vote for Kerry-Edwards.

This has to be the dumbest neiborhood in America. If there is anyone who actually believes this please contact me. I want to see ya something.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Bush to rely on attack as best form of defence

Suzanne Goldenberg
Friday October 8, 2004
The Guardian

George Bush plans to unleash a withering attack on his Democratic challenger in their debate rematch in Missouri tonight, scourging John Kerry's record in the Senate to argue that he would be a dangerous leader.
With the opinion polls suggesting that Mr Kerry's triumph in the first presidential debate last week has made it a closer race, President Bush cannot afford to let him win another round.

The Republican strategy presumes that a high-octane attack on Mr Kerry's fitness for office will deflect attention from Mr Bush's performance as the incumbent and put the Democrats on the defensive. That will handicap Democratic efforts to put the spotlight on Mr Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq.

The urgency of the president's redirection mission grew on Wednesday when Charles Duelfer, the CIA's weapons inspector, concluded that Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction, destroying the administration's justification for the invasion of Iraq. Mr Bush conceded the absence of WMD yesterday, but insisted "we were right to take action" against Saddam because he had the "means and intent" to produce banned weapons.

"America is safer today with Saddam Hussein in prison," Mr Bush told reporters, but added: "Much of the accumulated body of our intelligence was wrong and we must find out why."

At the same time he has sought to impress on voters that in his view a Kerry presidency would make the US far less safe. "My opponent's weak, vacillating views would make for a more dangerous world," he said in a fundraising email aimed at supporters yesterday.

Tonight's encounter in St Louis is a "town hall" affair in which Mr Bush and Mr Kerry will face questions from the public as well as a television moderator.

Iraq and the Duelfer report are bound to figure in the debate, giving Mr Bush a last chance to put the case that he is a strong leader in an age of terror. Next week's debate is on domestic themes.

"Bush has got to pretend that his weaknesses don't exist, and he has to emphasise that Kerry is a weak leader," said Dave Robertson, a politics professor at the University of Missouri. But he added that going in with all guns blazing against Mr Kerry could be risky for Mr Bush because it could make him seem angry and extreme himself.

Mr Bush's evident anger in last week's debate - the pursed lips and angry scowls which were seen by 63 million television viewers - tended to further undermine his weak performance.

The Democrats have also started to advance the case that Mr Bush is in denial about the realities of the war in Iraq and the economic downturn at home.

The argument is being pursued in new television advertisements by a Democratic support group in which the sisters of a soldier killed in Iraq accuse Mr Bush of being out of touch with reality.

But the Republicans have made it plain that Mr Bush has no intention of giving any opening to the Democrats on his handling of the war.

"Look, the decision's been made that the president just isn't going to get into an introspective mode," an administration official told the New York Times yesterday.