There are 3,500 calories in a pound, and thus I should have lost 3.08 pounds over that span. But, I weighed myself on October 2, and also today, and I have lost nearly 14 pounds.
Is it possible that through increased fitness and/or other factors such as reduced stress, better sleep etc that your Basal Metabolic Rate has actually increased during this timeframe? That could be one possible explanation, other one like you said is that the watch just isn’t spot on to begin with in terms of calories burned.
Just thinking out loud, interesting.