How would you invest , now

[A-con]

Steinys thread on a “decent investment” deteriorated into another pissing contest, so I thought I would try again.

I may be in a position to make an investment, and with this crazy economy, I thought I would get some feedback.

I’ve got two ideas, but I’m open to anything;

#1, Real Estate, pick up one (short sale) decent house, or two small ones, bring them up to snuff and rent them out until the housing market comes back, then sell them. Right now local houses are on the market for around ½ what they were two years ago, maybe less. If I play my cards right, I could pay cash, do the fix up work myself, and become a slum lord like Moosie ( I always wanted to be like Moosie, didn’t you).

#1-B, Buy myself a nicer house, and rent out the one I own now.

#2, Put it all in an Index Fund, and pray Obama spends enough money to bring the DOW back to 14,000

 

[JoseCuervo]

You gotta buy from distressed sellers right now, of any asset. Find people that are desperate, have no hope, looking for any lifeline, you know, people like Schmalts. It does not mean any thing that "prices are 1/2 what they were two years ago" as they were artificially inflated by the GOP's real estate bubble. Problem with buying houses right now is that NEXT month your asset is down another 4% each month, or so it seems. You may be right that the bottom has hit and the New Day in America is coming thanks to Obama and the low mortgage rates.

I guess if you believe in the Hope and Change that Obama will be delivering, this is a great time. If you think we will have more of the failures of the Dubya years to work through, you might be early.

Your #2, the Index Fund would have been the right decision the last month, the real estate ones likely would find you underwater if just due to the transaction costs of real estate.

 

[A-con]

I’m actually looking at the foreclosure auctions, (REDCO, ect). There appear to be some incredible deals, lots of dumps and some decent houses up for auction.
I keep hearing that there are a lot more foreclosures on the horizon, higher end stuff.
I won’t be ready to move for another 60-90 days, but it’s time to start looking the market over.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Here was a timely article in today's paper. Doesn't sound like much happens at the foreclosure auctions.

At 10 a.m., branch manager Jared Larsen walks into the lobby of Alliance Title Co. in Caldwell and offers coffee to two people. They've come for a foreclosure auction.

They are two housing specialists from a rural development agency who plan to bid on the house in question.

"We'll wait another minute to see if anyone else shows up," Larsen says.

No one does. Larsen proceeds to read the notice of foreclosure (" ... Said sale will be made without covenant or warranty regarding title, possession or encumbrances to satisfy the obligation. ... ") and then enters a bid on behalf of the Idaho Housing and Finance Association, the lender that foreclosed on the property.

Lisa Allen, from the federal rural-development agency, counters with a successful bid of $76,825. She tenders a cashier's check for the full amount of the outstanding mortgage.

"If anyone had wanted to bid a dollar more, they'd have won," said Lynn Ineck, Allen's associate.

The two represented the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Rural Development program, which subsidizes mortgages for low-income buyers. The agency had loaned money to the homeowner and was forced to buy the property or lose its investment.

Legal advertisements announcing foreclosure auctions fill page after page of the Idaho Statesman and other newspapers. And advertisers hawk sure-fire methods to make money at the auctions.

But very few auctions actually take place in the Treasure Valley. Most that do usually result in repossession of the home by the lender - not a purchase by a savvy investor or a lucky home-buyer.

When an auction actually does take place, the law requires the legal notice to be read aloud at the start. Larsen said he often reads his legal notices to an empty room.

"We had four auctions this morning, and Lynn was the only bidder who showed up," he said.

Foreclosure auctions are touted as a boon to investors looking to buy property on the cheap. But property values have dropped faster than lenders' willingness to deal. Lenders don't want to absorb big losses at auction. They would rather hang on and hope for a rebounding real estate market. So they set minimum bids at or above current market prices.

Most homebuyers don't have enough cash to get in the game even if they wanted to. A bidder must bring a cashier's check for the full purchase price to the auction. Investors looking to buy property with 10 percent to 20 percent equity stay away.

Of the 342 trustee's deeds (documents used to transfer ownership from a trustee, usually a title company) recorded in Ada County so far this year, only 23 have been transferred to third-party purchasers, according to Bobbi Oldfield, trust officer at Alliance Title. A third party is anyone other than the lender or homeowner.

In Canyon County, only eight of 282 trustee's deeds have transferred to third parties this year.

When no third party submits a winning bid, the deed is transferred from the trustee to the lender.

Many, if not most, of the foreclosure auctions advertised in the legal notices are postponed or canceled, Oldfield said.

Title One lists the status of auctions it has scheduled on its Web site. Of the 11 auctions scheduled between March 19 and 26, six were postponed and two canceled. Three were held, but the homes reverted to the lenders.

Auctions may be postponed for several reasons. A lender could be working to renegotiate a borrower's mortgage. Mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae had a moratorium on foreclosure auctions until March 12. Other big lenders like Citibank and Bank of America followed suit.

And some lenders have been marking time until they know what kind of help the federal government will provide for struggling borrowers.

Even if a lender's intentions aren't altruistic, delinquent homeowners can benefit from the delays. Delays can give them extra time to bring a loan current or to avoid foreclosure by arranging a quick sale, such as a short sale. In short sales, banks agree to sell a home for less than the amounts still owed them.

Daniel Starke, 41, got a reprieve when his mortgage servicer postponed the foreclosure auction of his neatly kept three-bedroom home in Northwest Boise last week. Now he has a few more weeks to try to find a buyer and arrange a short sale.

The Iraq War veteran lost his job as a heating and air-conditioning repairman. He fell behind on his house payments last year. He said the reprieve is the only break the bank has given him since he fell into default.

Starke said he has cashed out his retirement plan and looked into loan-modification programs offered by the federal government, but without a job he doesn't qualify.

He expects he'll re-enlist. "All I have to do is put my butt on the line, save my money and I'll come back with a clean slate," he said.

MetLife Bank, based in New Jersey, services Starke's mortgage. Most of its loans are Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans, and their moratoriums may explain a lot of the postponements, spokesman David Hammarstrom said.

Some foreclosures have been postponed by large national lenders because relief programs are coming out that may help borrowers stay in their homes by modifying or refinancing existing loans.

"They're hedging their bets as they try to find ways to avoid giving the properties away," said Jeremy Bordner, vice president of residential lending at Idaho First Bank in Boise.

 

[Oak]

Here is an article from our paper last Sunday:

Sold on deals at foreclosure auction
Door's wide open for home-seekers at auction of foreclosed properties
By Kirk Mitchell
The Denver Post
Posted: 03/22/2009 12:30:00 AM MDT

Kyle Wonn, a 22-year-old window glazer, scraped together $62,500 from relatives in the hopes it would be enough to buy his first home at a Saturday foreclosure auction.

His target was an Idaho Springs A-frame with three bedrooms perched on an acre of wooded mountain property at 61 Trails End Road.

The home and land had previously been appraised at $240,000 — four times the amount he had to bid.

It was a cash-only offering so he could not buy through financing.

After a minute of frenetic bidding in a Colorado Convention Center ballroom packed with more than 1,000 people, the highest bid came in at exactly $62,500 and the house was Wonn's.

"That was my upper limit," said Wonn, who was visibly winded and excited.

Real Estate Disposition Corp. auctioned off about 100 homes Saturday amid a backdrop of plummeting real estate values.

The company travels the country auctioning foreclosed homes for lenders, and these days there are a lot more properties to auction.

"It's the market," Wonn said, explaining why his seemingly low bid became the high bid. "People are hesitant to pay a lot of money during the recession."

Wonn intends to live in the home once he replaces the furnace and fixes the septic sewer system.

"I know how to do it myself," he said. "Most people don't want the hassle."

Many of the auctioned homes went for less than half their previously appraised values, including a Littleton home once valued at $470,750 that was auctioned Saturday for $170,000.

The recession has dealt a blow to home values across the country, said Chris Alcedo, REDC vice president.

The silver lining is that buyers like Wonn can get a home at a fraction of its previous value and start to build a future, he said.

Saturday was the first time Littleton resident Greg Clark went to a foreclosure auction.

"I'm tired of my stocks going to hell," Clark said.

He and his wife bought a Westminster condominium for $140,000, 23 percent below a previous appraisal amount. They intend to rent out the property.

Denver construction worker Chris Miller, 35, worked on several high-rise buildings and other major projects, including Invesco Field at Mile High, before he and 59 coworkers were laid off by Horizon Glass three months ago.

Miller came to the auction hoping to start a new career buying, refurbishing and selling homes. He is working on getting his real estate license.

His bid of $77,500 won him a Denver home for 59 percent less than a previous appraisal of $189,600.

Miller said he will fix the home up, sell it for a bargain price and expect to make $25,000 within three months.

Losing his job after 18 years was a terrible experience, he said. "This is a way I can put money in my pocket."

 

[1_pointer]

I hope real estate isn't a bad thing to be getting into. I'm in the process of buying my father's house. They way it's being financed it won't bother our monthly budget too much. Until I can find a job close enough to live there, we'll probably try to rent it. But, beings that I don't need it to make the payments any rent will just be icing on the cake. The big question is, what to do with the house I"m in here in UT if I get a job in/around IN. This house was bought near the peak of the real estate bubble, so I'm thinking that if I sold it I'd take a pretty good loss. But, if we can afford to make both the payments, we'd probably consider holding on to it and try to rent it and hope for the market to turn around.

 

[Calif. Hunter]

Dan - if it pencils out that it creates income for you, rental property is fine. Don't buy it banking on making a killing from appreciation. If you can have a positive cash flow, after setting aside funds for vacancy factors and repairs, then it makes sense. I am getting 12% return on my rental properties - although I own apartments and not SFRs.

 

[Steiny]

I just picked up 15 acres of undeveloped land with 4 small lakes and butting up against a large lake which I will have water access rights to.
Investments aren't doing anything, so what the heck. Should be a decent long term investment, plus another place to play on while I own it.

 

[T Bone]

Personally, I'd put it into index funds or hand-picked stocks.

I'm leary of rentals. Too much hassle and potential downside.

 

[Calif. Hunter]

Make a post and the spam goes away...

 

[ELKCHSR]

I'd wait on the property thing for at least another year

With the "great" things Bammy has done recently to bail out the world, we should see a backlash that will more than likely dwarf the stunts Carter pulled when he "froze" the economy

I hope I'm mistaken, but it seems history has a tendency to repeat itself all the time

People always get hooked on the here and now, forgetting past learning experiences...

Cash is a hard commodity to come by my friend

Look to what went up increased in value during the mid 70's, early 80's and you will probably get your answers..

 

[ELKCHSR]

Decent investments are still in gold and will be for some time to come as most other investments aren't as attractive as something that will hold its value thru a recession/depression....

Banks trying to dump dead end real estate is always good, but one has to be careful because land and properties probably won't see any noticeable increases for at least 20 years

If one is young enough to get property now and hold onto it, it usually pays off in spades...