How accurate is Go Hunt's Draw odds for California?

[2rocky]

I'm looking at a hunt that people drew last year with my current level of points.

The odds go from 1.6% up to 100% and I am at the lowest # of points for that predicted 100% draw.

I'm prepared to be disappointed but I want to be ready in case I DO draw.

Your thoughts?

 

[Dsnow9]

I think it is fairly accurate. Better to be prepared than not.

 

[2rocky]

The swing correlates with the number of applicants from what I can tell. Max points is 17 and i'd be ok burning my points this year.

 

[ImBillT]

goHunt accurately calculates the percentage of times a certain outcome would occur if last years draw were repeated infinitely. In other words, their stated probability of drawing last year if you were one of the applicants for the hunt in question is correct.

 

[Blackcats06]

You'll need to look at how many applicants there actually are in your point level, number of tags, etc. Remember you're in that 8 point group that is moving to 9. I don't know how the California draw works but it is possible that there are more people with the same point level than you which means its possible you don't draw.