SAJ-99
Well-known member
Listening to a guy that says he is an expert because he went through the last housing crisis (when he was like 15) might not be the best idea…you know, financially speaking. But not advice.
Housing Appreciation and Inflation: Future Outlook?
- Thread starter Sytes
- Start date
ismith
Well-known member
How old are you, if you don't mind me asking? Also, are you an "expert" on anything?
SAJ-99
Well-known member
None of that matters. But I'm good at knowing when to ask more questions on a chart. No one is doubting the price decline, but it is New homes only, and builders show a lot more flexibility in pricing. You also need a volume chart, like below. Builders were complicit in the previous housing crisis by overbuilding. In this cycle they have been underbuilding. There is no comparison. If prices collapse this time, it will be for different reasons.
But yeah, I am annoyed by the trend of people rooting against the prosperity of the USofA.
Nick87
Well-known member
From 2920 to current that chart pretty much mirrors interest rates. Well doesn't mirror because it's opposite. Help me out with the big words here.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Exactly. And that was what the Fed was targeting in raising rates. Explaining that doesn’t generate page views like the phrases “bursting bubbles” and “crash”.From 2920 to current that chart pretty much mirrors interest rates. Well doesn't mirror because it's opposite. Help me out with the big words here.
Nick87
Well-known member
If I had a dollar for everyone of those videos or headlines I've seen for the last 4 years. Not saying it couldn't happen. It just hasn't.
ismith
Well-known member
"I remember when land was a dollar an acre, and no one had a dollar."
SAJ-99
Well-known member
For those that care about data, this is an extensive report on the state of the housing market.
The TLDR highlights
Estimated shortage of homes at 2.4m
A lot of the stuff we already know - low inventory, low affordability, etc.
If you are looking for something showing a coming housing price crash, it isn't in this data. Housing is at the top of the list of drivers of the US economy and no one benefits if the prices to go down.
The TLDR highlights
Estimated shortage of homes at 2.4m
A lot of the stuff we already know - low inventory, low affordability, etc.
If you are looking for something showing a coming housing price crash, it isn't in this data. Housing is at the top of the list of drivers of the US economy and no one benefits if the prices to go down.
I sure hope and anticipate the housing market continues it's themed trend following inflation. Likely one of the common denominators of common inflation.
"Only 24% of homes purchased at the moment are bought by first-time homebuyers. This is the lowest level on record..."
Using SA's general source:
www.apolloacademy.com
"Only 24% of homes purchased at the moment are bought by first-time homebuyers. This is the lowest level on record..."
Using SA's general source:
Housing Becoming Unaffordable for First-Time Homebuyers - Apollo Academy
Only 24% of homes purchased at the moment are bought by first-time homebuyers. This is the lowest level on record,...
www.apolloacademy.com
SAJ-99
Well-known member
You and me both. There is a chart in there on real price appreciation (price gain above inflation) and it sure looks stretched over the last 20 yrs, but I don't know it signals anything to come. Maybe housing just treads water versus inflation for the next decade? The dynamics of age demographics and the housing shortage make it hard to see a decline.I sure hope and anticipate the housing market continues it's themed trend following inflation. Likely one of the common denominators of common inflation.
"Only 24% of homes purchased at the moment are bought by first-time homebuyers. This is the lowest level on record..."
Using SA's general source:
Housing Becoming Unaffordable for First-Time Homebuyers - Apollo Academy
Only 24% of homes purchased at the moment are bought by first-time homebuyers. This is the lowest level on record,...
The median home buyer is now 49yrs old. Some of that is boomer downsizing and just the flexibility the built-in gains give older buyers. It sucks to be a new buyer. The build in multi family units will help, but I have noticed that people hate "time". Tell a 21yo that they should buy a 500sq ft condo in the city and in 15 years they will have built up enough equity to move to the suburbs and they will say they would rather YOLO into a meme coin and see what happens in 12 months.
noharleyyet
Well-known member
"I remember when steamboat rides were a nickel. All I could afford to do was run up and down the river bank hollerin' ain't that cheap."
-Roy Clark
Forkyfinder
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2023
- Messages
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40% of homes don't have a mortgage.
Nick87
Well-known member
Lot of boomers with a lot of houses.40% of homes don't have a mortgage.
Built in 1950-1970
Nick87
Well-known member
That's when mine was built. I'm alright with that. They built shit a lot heavier then.
Better than some of those 1910-1930ish houses
