Hey, draw odds dorks…

[SAJ-99]

This is making it more complicated than it needs to be. Your odds of drawing are whatever they are at the beginning of the draw. You don't care what the odds change to after 1 ,2 or 100 people are selected. Think of it this way, you don't get to choose after they draw the 1st person if you want to keep going or not. Your overall odds of drawing don't change. Research the Monte Carlo problem (google it, lots of stuff out there) if you are insterested in researching this more. Or a more fun way might be to watch the movie "21", it has a segment on the Monte Carlo problem (probably find it on youtube if you wanted). Hint, always change the door in the Monte Carlo problem.

NR and R can't be done separate. They take UP to 10% of the tags, they don't allocate exactly 10% of the tags. So, they can't say in a district with 10 tags that 1 is for NR and set that aside and do a separate draw for that one tag. They draw everybody together and then once the non-residents achieve their 10% of the tags, they are removed. This is part of what BuckRut is showing above. However you can't account for when the non-residents are removed (if it occurs, many districts it doesn't) so your overall odds of drawing is what it was at the beginning of the draw.

Mostly this is making it way more difficult than it needs to be. As applicants we don't care about precise percentages, mostly we care which district gives us the best chance of drawing and this is much easier to figure out and doesn't need to be as precise.

Thanks. Had to relook at the regs. I still think it is stupid and they should be done separately, but it's MT so not surprising. I agree that the odds at the beginning are the most accurate predictor and probably the only thing relevant.

If the first number drawn is a NR then you as a resident had approx. 1.5751% chance to draw assuming we don't try to analyze how many points each person had as they were selected.

If no NR are drawn you had approx. 0.9965% chance with the same assumption.

Yes, the odds change, but no service can determine true odds that are path dependent. In 622 the 10% NR limit applies, but in a unit like 212 where only one tag is issued, if the NR gets that tag the Rs get zero (which looks like hit happened in 2021). For that one, the odds are T0 are the odds. There are easier and clearer ways to do this, but someone would complain it isn't "fair".

Edit: and not analyzing the bonus points kind of skips over the important part, doesn'tt it?

 

[BuckRut]

Edit: and not analyzing the bonus points kind of skips over the important part, doesn'tt it?

Sorry. I left out those are the odds with max 23 points. What I left out was how many tickets are removed because say the first guy drawn had the max 529 tickets and now there are 529 less out of the 500k+ remaining tickets.

Don't sell the statistics short though. It is entirely possible to stretch this out and calculate the odds that the first tag drawn is a NR and apply that in a realistic manner to the R draw odds and so on down the line with the odds that the first is an R and the second is a NR etc.

 

[brownbear932008]

Hey I play with all these numbers but, on super low odd tags at the end of the day I apply for where I want to hunt usually. I mean .5% to 2% odds is there really any reason besides nerding out to really care? JK

But that's how I've began to apply for sheep and goat which I only apply for in MT now since I'm deep into that point game. I gave up early on in four other states when I looked deep into my odds after applying for three years or more.

 

[Stone_Ice_1]

Sorry. I left out those are the odds with max 23 points. What I left out was how many tickets are removed because say the first guy drawn had the max 529 tickets and now there are 529 less out of the 500k+ remaining tickets.

Don't sell the statistics short though. It is entirely possible to stretch this out and calculate the odds that the first tag drawn is a NR and apply that in a realistic manner to the R draw odds and so on down the line with the odds that the first is an R and the second is a NR etc.

Once again, your odds of actually drawing don't change regardless of who draws the first tag because your odds are calculated before that happens. Research the Monte Carlo problem.

 

[SAJ-99]

Sorry. I left out those are the odds with max 23 points. What I left out was how many tickets are removed because say the first guy drawn had the max 529 tickets and now there are 529 less out of the 500k+ remaining tickets.

Don't sell the statistics short though. It is entirely possible to stretch this out and calculate the odds that the first tag drawn is a NR and apply that in a realistic manner to the R draw odds and so on down the line with the odds that the first is an R and the second is a NR etc.

Got it.
Not saying it isn't possible. I'm saying it has no value for people. You have to submit your application before the draw using the best estimate on odds.

Once again, your odds of actually drawing don't change regardless of who draws the first tag because your odds are calculated before that happens. Research the Monte Carlo problem.

I think his point is, once the NR draws, all other NR ping pong balls in the bucket become void. Sure, there are still the same number of ping pong balls (minus 1), and the odds that your ping pong ball are next are basically unchanged, but once all the other NR ping pong balls become void, it does change the odds.

 

[BuckRut]

You have to submit your application before the draw using the best estimate on odds.

Correct. And the best estimate takes into account the odds of how my ping pong balls are left during each draw from the pool.

 

[BuckRut]

Another point to note is that none of these services are offering predictive odds. They are simply trying to accurately calculate the odds from last year. And again the problem with the TopRut odds is that they did not apply the 10% cap to the NR numbers.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

I'm speaking way beyond my knowledge here, but I believe this is why GoHunt talks about basing their odds on simulation rather than calculation. You take the original number of applicants, point levels, residency, etc., and then you "run the draw" a million times (or some large number) on a computer. The odds they report are based on the aggregated results of those simulations. Whether that's better, you can continue to debate....

QQ

 

[MTGunner]

Why have many not done their own research in lieu of wasting $$$ on some company that evaluates draw odds. On the MT website it states draw odds. Surely other lower 48 states must state resident/nonresident odds. Orrrrr, are most just too lazy to put in the research effort?
I guess it must be me as I have done mine for years. Some, before internet. I have researched hunts in exotic places online. Have evaluated outfitters, guides, professional hunters, options, prices, guarantees and etc, etc, etc. Guess I don’t get it. It’s part of the journey, adventure, experience and more. MTG

 

[BuzzH]

It is my understanding that the R and NR draws are separate. I may be misinformed. There is no reason to put the applicants together because they have different constraints. The NRs are only assigned 1 tag in your example and don't affect the R draw at all. Like I said, I may misunderstand how it works, so don't quote me. MT does some of the dumbest things so it wouldn't surprise me.

Nope, Montana is an up to 10% state everyone is in the draw together.

 

[BuzzH]

Why has no one done their own research in lieu of wasting $$$ on some company that evaluates draw odds. On the MT website it states draw odds. Surely other lower 48 states must state resident/nonresident odds. Orrrrr, are most just too lazy to put in the research effort?

They don't state draw odds, they tell you the number of applicants and number of tags drawn. That is not draw odds because they don't calculate squared bonus points.

Bottom line, odds are total shit, apply where you have an active app and/or area you want to hunt. It's all luck and there is no strategy involved.

 

[mtmuley]

They don't state draw odds, they tell you the number of applicants and number of tags drawn. That is not draw odds because they don't calculate squared bonus points.

Bottom line, odds are total shit, apply where you have an active app and/or area you want to hunt. It's all luck and there is no strategy involved.

Only odds I care about is what I find out on draw day. mtmuley

 

[SAJ-99]

Why have many not done their own research in lieu of wasting $$$ on some company that evaluates draw odds. On the MT website it states draw odds. Surely other lower 48 states must state resident/nonresident odds. Orrrrr, are most just too lazy to put in the research effort?
I guess it must be me as I have done mine for years. Some, before internet. I have researched hunts in exotic places online. Have evaluated outfitters, guides, professional hunters, options, prices, guarantees and etc, etc, etc. Guess I don’t get it. It’s part of the journey, adventure, experience and more. MTG

MT has draw odds? This below? This is relatively new and more the problem than the solution. The numbers are not odds they are % successful, and it is a just a dump into a Pdf. The reason places like Gohunt charge is they get all the data and sort through it all so people can compare one unit odds to another. That takes forever for the average person using this.

 

[MTGunner]

They don't state draw odds, they tell you the number of applicants and number of tags drawn. That is not draw odds because they don't calculate squared bonus points.

Bottom line, odds are total shit, apply where you have an active app and/or area you want to hunt. It's all luck and there is no strategy involved.

Buzz, MT states previous year draw odds. Other states? I have not applied.
BTW, if you are playing the odds, you are gambling. Research!

 

[QuazyQuinton]

Why have many not done their own research in lieu of wasting $$$ on some company that evaluates draw odds. On the MT website it states draw odds. Surely other lower 48 states must state resident/nonresident odds. Orrrrr, are most just too lazy to put in the research effort?
I guess it must be me as I have done mine for years. Some, before internet. I have researched hunts in exotic places online. Have evaluated outfitters, guides, professional hunters, options, prices, guarantees and etc, etc, etc. Guess I don’t get it. It’s part of the journey, adventure, experience and more. MTG

A group of Montana residents can't even come to a concensus on this thread about how they would calculate draw odds for a resident in Montana. I'm sure you can make some apples-to-apples comparisons with the data provided by the state, but things like the "up to 10%" rule make for some pretty complex analysis.

To me, the real value of GoHunt is being able to combine and sort by draw odds, public land, season date, harvest success, detailed unit info, maps, etc. for a whole state at the push of a button. It's a convenience, yes, but if you paid yourself $5/hour, it would still be cheaper to let GoHunt search and sort for you. And be more accurate.

QQ

 

[MTGunner]

A group of Montana residents can't even come to a concensus on this thread about how they would calculate draw odds for a resident in Montana. I'm sure you can make some apples-to-apples comparisons with the data provided by the state, but things like the "up to 10%" rule make for some pretty complex analysis.

To me, the real value of GoHunt is being able to combine and sort by draw odds, public land, season date, harvest success, detailed unit info, maps, etc. for a whole state at the push of a button. It's a convenience, yes, but if you paid yourself $5/hour, it would still be cheaper to let GoHunt search and sort for you. And be more accurate.

QQ

Rather do my own work.

 

[cgasner1]

I’m sure you’re good at your job, but hardly anything about calculating NR draw odds across the American West is as simple as you just suggested. Even the no-point states have nuances that muddy the waters (see NM 1st/2nd/3rd choice). If it were easy as dumping last year’s data into Excel, these app services wouldn’t be creating computer models to simulate the draws hundreds of thousands of times.

Also sounds time consuming Gohunt costs me about a hour of ot. I’d rather just go to work for a hour than deal with all that. Also my version would be chicken scratch and not have a quick reference for regs and app dates and other things

 

[rmyoung1]

Buzz, MT states previous year draw odds. Other states? I have not applied.
BTW, if you are playing the odds, you are gambling. Research!

As stated previously, what MT reports is NOT the draw odds. It’s simply a report of how it played out. If 3 guys applied with 10 points and 1 drew, that does not mean odds of drawing were 33.3%. It simply means that 33.3% of those applying with 10 points drew. Again, that’s not the same as their probability of drawing. Just like that dude who just won powerball didn’t have a 100% chance of buying the winning ticket. He won, but his odds of winning were still horrible.

 

[BuzzH]

Buzz, MT states previous year draw odds. Other states? I have not applied.
BTW, if you are playing the odds, you are gambling. Research!

No, they don't.

 

[MTGunner]

You are right. Previous years draw statistics.
Thankfully we have Buzztard the hunting guru, self acclaimed, to set EVERYONE straight. I want to use bad language, but not appropriate.