Help decipring WY draw odds

[tbowers]

Can someone explain how I am supposed to read this? Im looking at going after Antelope next year, looking for a high % draw at zero points. Basically looking for a definition of what each column represents. I randomly chose a couple units in the pic below

Quota- Number of tags available I assume?
Issued- This doesnt match quota, does that mean whatever the diff is is a 'leftover' tag?
Pref points- number of points required to draw?
First choice applicants- ?
First choice odds-?

Thanks!

 

[MN_Bowhunter4]

Quota - Number of tags available for that area and type
Issued - number of tags issued at the corresponding point level
Pref. Points - Just the point level
First Choice Applicants - number of first choice applicants at that point level
First Choice Odds - odds of drawing a permit at that point level

So for area 37, there were 19 tags total, 1 was issued to a person at 3 points and they were the only one that submitted at that level; for that person the draw odds were 100%. Next line the quota goes down by the number issued above, and so on until quota = 0.

 

[kwyeewyk]

Quota is total tags available, issued is how many are issued in order of highest preference points used by any applicant. So hunt area 37 type 1 has 19 tags, one person with 3 points applied--1 tag was issued; 0 people with more than 2 but less than 3 points (averaged in a party with different points per person) so 0 tags issued; 6 applicants with 2 points, 6 tags issued for 2 points but 7 total now issued, and so until 0 tags remain. In this case if you had 1 point you had 100% chance to draw, if you had less than 1 point but more than 0, you had 25%, and 0 points 0% chance, which means there were no leftover tags.

 

[bts09]

One tweak--quota is the number of preference point licenses made available for that area and type--so OP, you can still, in theory, draw a tag even if on here it says you would have a 0% chance. All that means is, you have a 0% chance in the "preference point" draw. But remember, Wyoming allocates tags to different draws on a percentage basis. So if, for example, you look at Antelope Unit 5 for non-residents in 2019. In that unit, if you had 2 preference points, there were 9 tags in the quota and 11 applicants, so with 2 points you had a 9/11 chance of getting a tag. No preference points tags were issued to anyone with fewer than 2 points in that draw. BUT, there were still 2 tags for unit 5 left for the non-resident random draw.

All this to say, even if in the preference point draw you have no chance based on your number of points, you still have a *slight* chance in most random draws.

Welcome to HT!

 

[tbowers]

Good explanations! So for Unit 38, there was no one that drew with zero points out of 251 applicants and w/ 1 pt 28% drew out of 97 applicants- explain to me again how you could still draw with zero or 1 points in that unit? Im going to put in for a pref point once they go on sale next month, just trying to decipher what odds i have to draw a buck tag next year. And open to the possibility of a doe tag, i couldnt figure out the draw odds for that

 

[wytex]

The special draw was 100% with 1 PP. Some possibily drew with 0 PP in the random draw .

 

[VikingsGuy]

explain to me again how you could still draw with zero or 1 points in that unit? \

Because there is a second draw pool your screen shot doesn’t show - the random draw for that unit/tag type. In your example there we 19 preference point tags available which allow us to back calculate that there were 6 (or 7 depending on the rounding rules) tags give out at random. In your example there were 22 guys that failed to get tags in the preference point draw that then get thrown into the random draw for 6 tags. So, 6 of those 22 will get tags in addition to the 19 preference point tags that were granted.

 

[Wy067]

25% of the available licenses go into the random draw. In 2019 in area 38 there were 36 tags allotted to the random draw and 319 first choice applicants = 11% chance to draw a tag in the random draw. For doe tags, there are no preference points that come into play. 208 quota last year with 901 first choice applicants = 23% chance to draw a doe tag.

 

[WapitiBob]

You can't use the demand reports to calculate accurate odds for doe hunts.

 

[tbowers]

that makes more sense! I was around the Black Hills in WY this spring turkey hunting(I live in WI) and i had a big group of pronghorn walk by- really got me thinking! Now Im trying to find the best unit that I can draw a buck tag with 1 point without forking out the extra $$ for the special draw, and still have a decent amount of public to access

 

[NEWHunter]

Buy a preference point after July 1 this year for $31, then start looking at high % draw at one point for next year.

 

[tbowers]

Buy a preference point after July 1 this year for $31, then start looking at high % draw at one point for next year.

No doubt. Can you potentially draw both a buck tag and get a doe tag for the same unit?

 

[SaskHunter]

No doubt. Can you potentially draw both a buck tag and get a doe tag for the same unit?

Yes. You can also opt out of the doe tag(s) if you don't draw your buck tag. Seriously, any unit that takes 1-2 in the regular draw will be a good hunt. It might not be an easy hunt where all you do is drive around thousands of antelopes on a unit that is 96% public, but it will still be a fun challenging hunt.

 

[NEWHunter]

No doubt. Can you potentially draw both a buck tag and get a doe tag for the same unit?

Yes, it’s possible to get a buck tag and up to two doe tags for the same unit.

 

[tbowers]

Man it seems like every unit i check out that has good draw odds with 1 point, has a decent amount of public land and high hunter success says the below when you click on public land info on the WY site. They just trying to scare me off or what??

Access to public lands is limited, with most of the State of Wyoming and Bureau of Land Management lands within the hunt area inaccessible to the public

 

[BuzzH]

Yes, it’s possible to get a buck tag and up to two doe tags for the same unit.

Its possible to get 2 buck tags and 4 doe tags for the same unit...

 

[tbowers]

Looks like Unit 21 is about half public, WY GF site says access is 'good' and 85% chance to draw with 1 point. At least I think Im reading that right ?

 

[Wy067]

Looks like Unit 21 is about half public, WY GF site says access is 'good' and 85% chance to draw with 1 point. At least I think Im reading that right ?

Regarding the odds, you are correct. I can't speak for the access. Keep in mind there's an ever upward point creep for antelope. We'll know more about what it took to draw for this year after the results come out around the 18th of this month. A quick look at the 2018/2017 draw odds for that unit showed that 1 point was guaranteed a tag and in 2019 it was 85%, and probably won't be that high this year either. That's the point creep... Good luck.

 

[LopeHunter]

For a species like buck deer, a non-resident may find there are zero tags awarded in the random draw so plan accordingly. Many of the better deer units do not have many non-resident tags so as the tags are split between preference and random for special and preference and random for regular...there is not a tag for one or both of the random buckets. Same for moose.

 

[bts09]

I don’t know exactly what algorithm they use to say whether it’s difficult access or not. I think it’s based on percentage of public roads that intersect with public land. The unit I’ve hunted two years in a row is listed as difficult access, and last year we shot 4 of our 5 within a half mile of a public road. And two literally a hundred or so feet from a county road. So difficult access does not mean no access or even necessarily difficult. You just may have to walk more (but you also may not) ..