Going into AZ draw with 15 points, any suggestions ?

[Sharp stick]

Well, we have decided to split this into 2 AZ hunts, my buddy going in with 15 points really wants to hunt 27, myself pushing 63 years old and sitting on 14 points wants to hunt while Im still able. I am going to be satisfied if I draw an early archery hunt in hunt area 8 so that was my 1st choice and 27 was 2nd on my 2023 app. My buddy bought a point in hopes of landing a hunt in 27 in the future. Since these were the 2 zones we had put more scouting effort into I will be happy if I can draw either hunt. Does anyone have any of the draw results/ stats from 2022 AZ early archery season yet? I no longer have the Go hunt app. I would really appreciate it. Also if anyone hunted AZ 8 early archery last year I would love to chat about that hunt and how it went. I hunted southern and w/central Co in 2022 and it was hot! The elk were not very talkative.

 

[WapitiBob]

Your only chance at 27 is in the random pass. Unit 8 was 80% at 14 last year, when you had 13. It will be a stretch for your app to get picked in the bonus pass but it could happen if not too many apply.
However, by placing 8 as first choice, if you get drawn for 8 in the bonus pass you're out of the draw (which is the point after all). You will not have that slim chance at 27 in the random, which is usually OK. You'd prefer to get picked in the bonus pass and not have to rely on a random tag. The preferred way to position your choices is to list the hardest to draw first. In a situation where the likelihood that your best/only chance is in the random, you'd want 27 first, then 8 and hope to get lucky and draw the better unit.
Your random odds with 13 last year were 3.5% for 27 and 5.5% for unit 8.
Last year unit 27 was 15% at 17 points in the bonus pass, when your friend was at 14.

 

[Sharp stick]

If zone 8 was at 80% last year at 14 points, and this year I placed 8 as my #1 choice hopefully if it is still somewhere near 80% chance my odds sound pretty decent to draw 8 this year. I figured I would not stand a chance of drawing 27 at 14 points. My strategy is to try to draw asap as I am not getting any younger. Back in 2018 when we scouted it appeared even 27 was a slight possibility unless my info then was incorrect. In the end 8 & 27 is where we settled on aiming for. I am concerned I may be handicapping myself by only listing 1st and 2nd choices, assuming that there is not much chance of drawing anything beyond that. Maybe it would have been smarter to list more choices??

 

[WapitiBob]

Gohunt is a sponsor so here is their trend line for 8 archery. I would guess your 2023 odds to be in line with those shown. As far as choices and planning the hunt, only you can decide what works. For me, I need to hunt every year so I look at hunts I can draw 100%, eliminating those that would leave too many points on the table, and research those few units, picking the one that I feel is best for me.

 

[Sharp stick]

Your only chance at 27 is in the random pass. Unit 8 was 80% at 14 last year, when you had 13. It will be a stretch for your app to get picked in the bonus pass but it could happen if not too many apply.
However, by placing 8 as first choice, if you get drawn for 8 in the bonus pass you're out of the draw (which is the point after all). You will not have that slim chance at 27 in the random, which is usually OK. You'd prefer to get picked in the bonus pass and not have to rely on a random tag. The preferred way to position your choices is to list the hardest to draw first. In a situation where the likelihood that your best/only chance is in the random, you'd want 27 first, then 8 and hope to get lucky and draw the better unit.
Your random odds with 13 last year were 3.5% for 27 and 5.5% for unit 8.
Last year unit 27 was 15% at 17 points in the bonus pass, when your friend was at 14.

Thanks for the info, it really helps me out. I appreciate it