Food for thought

[VikingsGuy]

While I understand the presentation and see my own inability to accurately reason when I am passionate about the subject, the bigger problem currently is that people aren't trusting the numbers presented on the board (the statistics). So if one demonstrates a correlation from the last 4 (or 8, or 16) years, the concern is often whether or not the numbers presented are even accurate (inflation, crime, etc.), regardless of whether folks can genuinely grasp what the numbers demonstrate. We all think we're being lied to outright all the time, and sometimes we're right.

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In before the lock

The one point of the paper is that if you have a strong pre-belief you will work hard to disbelieve the numbers in front of you. It may be because you fancy yourself an internet statistician or your may know you are right so the data must be fake. The paper does a better job than veratasium at showing how hard people work to "correct" or discount the facts when they don't like them.

 

[seeth07]

The one point of the paper is that if you have a strong pre-belief you will work hard to disbelieve the numbers in front of you. It may be because you fancy yourself an internet statistician or your may know you are right so the data must be fake. The paper does a better job than veratasium at showing how hard people work to "correct" or discount the facts when they don't like them.

I really did like the point of the video about how it's likely an impossible task to fix or address this as it's very likely just ingrained in us as a society and as people but there are ways to instead focus on just the solutions and not the reason why it's a problem

 

[gouch]

That study just confirms the notion that "I'll see it when I believe it."

 

[VikingsGuy]

Yeah! My lady in red wanted to know what her made-up rash was and what was in the made-up cream make a more informed conclusion on the made-up numbers. Truly an independent and objective thinker.

In some cases yes, in some cases no. We can't substitute our personal data analysis for every issue facing us in life. We have to take some things at face value or we will be paralyzed. If you don't trust any numbers and think you can do better yourself, 99% of the time you will do nothing of the sort since you have no access, training or time to recreate every single data point in every single field of study affecting your life - and where does that leave one.

 

[ismith]

Yup. It was not a red-team/blue-team post. It was just a reminder that our "hunches" that align with our "beliefs" should always be questioned.

Question everything.

 

[Treeshark]

missed the point, but @seeth07 got it

There was a post immediately after your first one that has since been deleted, I was responding to that one not yours.

 

[Irrelevant]

Question everything.

impossible.

 

[ismith]

impossible.

 

[Indianajoe]

I spend far too many hours watching Veritasium.

veritasium and smarter every day. I waste way to much time watching both.

 

[SAJ-99]

In some cases yes, in some cases no. We can't substitute our personal data analysis for every issue facing us in life. We have to take some things at face value or we will be paralyzed. If you don't trust any numbers and think you can do better yourself, 99% of the time you will do nothing of the sort since you have no access, training or time to recreate every single data point in every single field of study affecting your life - and where does that leave one.

And that is the problem. We already know what we want to believe, so we look for conclusions that support that. It’s like getting the Cliffs Notes on opinions without even reading the Notes. People start believing things without data or facts. Then throw in a survey or two to gauge opinions and you get a complete cluster f@*&. An example, citizens views on the US economy. Only about a third of us think it is good despite the data saying this is one of the strong and most resilient periods we have ever seen by any measure- productivity, unemployment, wages, growth, the list goes on. You can’t change peoples minds. Social media???

 

[BrentD]

Seems like a good point in time to reflect on how our preconceived political beliefs turn us stupid. This is not partisan - it is all of us - it is both sides. Now is also a good time to take a deep breath and not use "beliefs" and assumptions as a guide to understanding reality.

That is totally scary stuff. Really.

Thanks for posting that. I think.

 

[ismith]

That is totally scary stuff. Really.

Thanks for posting that. I think.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

Having taken a college statistics class long ago, I'm pretty certain that you need more info to be able to say there is ANY significant difference between the two groups as presented. Just because one number (or ratio) is bigger than another doesn't mean the difference is meaningful.

But confirmation bias is real. I knew that before I watched the video.

QQ

 

[Nick87]

And that is the problem. We already know what we want to believe, so we look for conclusions that support that. It’s like getting the Cliffs Notes on opinions without even reading the Notes. People start believing things without data or facts. Then throw in a survey or two to gauge opinions and you get a complete cluster f@*&. An example, citizens views on the US economy. Only about a third of us think it is good despite the data saying this is one of the strong and most resilient periods we have ever seen by any measure- productivity, unemployment, wages, growth, the list goes on. You can’t change peoples minds. Social media???

How about simple math, What's coming in vs what's going out every month?

 

[VikingsGuy]

How about simple math, What's coming in vs what's going out every month?

Folks really rationalize that one when it doesn’t add up

 

[Nick87]

Folks really rationalize that one when it doesn’t add up

Why wouldn't they?

 

[Dsnow9]

Seems like a good point in time to reflect on how our preconceived political beliefs turn us stupid. This is not partisan - it is all of us - it is both sides. Now is also a good time to take a deep breath and not use "beliefs" and assumptions as a guide to understanding reality.

Thanks for posting, pretty interesting

 

[Hammsolo]

This is so interesting. The greatest take away for me is to be curious and be aware of my context. Thank you

 

[achadwick]

My life has improved every.
single.
year.
despite who's in the white house or what the "media" tell me.

I have zero faith that most of my friends, family, coworkers, and HT-ers have a flying friggin' clue how to effectively and efficiently evaluate even the most mundane problem in their lives, let alone try to research, evaluate, weigh, and summarize all the various topics, components, and reasons that go into, or should go into, trying to pick the next leader of our country. Not only do I think you're all basically morons, but I also don't think there's any hope that it gets better. Institutional inertia is the only thing keeping it going.

That you call yourself "Irrelevant" is deliciously ironic. Thanks for the laughs!!

 

[SAJ-99]

How about simple math, What's coming in vs what's going out every month?

Inflation sucks, but given your job. I would say in many ways just having something coming in is a win because the Fed literally tried to kneecap the construction space and it kept churning along. Hopefully there is some catchup for you now. We are starting to see real results in measurements, but individual attitudes remain stuck.