Deer age, antler growth, and culling

rogerthat

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@sclancy27 Rather than pollute the season proposal thread I thought I would start a new thread. this podcast is timely it basically speaks to the topic we were discussing and backs up what you were saying. I’m trying to wrap my mind around it and square it up to what I have seen over the years in the field. A couple things that stand out is that culling can’t move the needle when it comes to genetics regarding buck size in a population nor can you shoot the genetics out of a herd.
 
I have hunted the same chunk for whitetails for 49 years. We have 2 gene pools. Remember, mama is 50% of the genetics. 1) culling never works. 2) age, food, weather grows big antlers. We have 48 in the book, I have 13 of those. Getting age is the challenge. I have 29 neighbors who touch our wire. Poachers, car kills, wolves, bear, and guys who think a 103 inch, 2.5yo is a trophy. Ok.
 
I just got done listing, This is what stood out to me the most. "The aggressive bucks do most of the breeding" In Montana with the season long rut hunt if you are an aggressive buck you are likely to die young and early in the the rut. Could this be why I seldom see older bucks tending large groups of does later in the rut even on private land? Could this lead to more does being bread second cycle? Questions that need to be asked.
 

@sclancy27 Rather than pollute the season proposal thread I thought I would start a new thread. this podcast is timely it basically speaks to the topic we were discussing and backs up what you were saying. I’m trying to wrap my mind around it and square it up to what I have seen over the years in the field. A couple things that stand out is that culling can’t move the needle when it comes to genetics regarding buck size in a population nor can you shoot the genetics out of a herd.
I haven't listened yet to this one, I'll have to give it an hour. Thanks
 
I have this one queued up for the drive home. Robby has really been getting some good discussions with state biologists on deer the last couple months.
 
Before listening to the podcast, I will kind of give my what I have seen happen (from an antler growth perspective) in MT in the last 25 years. From my observations there have been largely 2 scenarios. Caveat, I think any average deer can get to 150" +/-. This is supported by some data, particularly the data out of UT where they measure most of the bucks taken out of their premier deer units and the average over the years is somewhere in the 160" range.

1. Random big bucks. I've seen these deer where most of the deer are not very big on average. I think these deer are those genetic outliers, the Shaq's of the deer world. Anything that is high 180's or bigger. The biggest buck I have ever seen on the hoof is around 230".

2. In my 25 years of hunting, based on my observations, there have been 2 periods of time where, observationally, I was seeing more bucks in that 170+ range than in other times. Those periods, based on my observations, were the early 2000's and the mid/late 2010's. I'm talking Eastern MT specifically. It is my hypothesis that these periods of time were a result of a series of weather events that caused significant deer die off (mid 90s winters, winter of 10-11') while simultaneously providing the moisture and lapse in heavy browsing pressure to reinvigorate habitats important to mule deer. It is my opinion that after these events, the age classes born in the 2-3 subsequent years experienced largely limitless neo-natal and early life nutrition, causing above average antler growth in many individuals. Once populations rebounded, habitats became limiting and the average buck antler size dropped, and at least in the mid 2010's case, high population levels (relative to post-2011) and drought conditions then led to the opposite happening, where male fawns were subjected to very suboptimal nutrition. I have a feeling we could experience this again in the late 2020's to 2030 with the current drop in deer numbers and the very timely wet weather we have had in 2023 and 2024 so far.
 
Before listening to the podcast, I will kind of give my what I have seen happen (from an antler growth perspective) in MT in the last 25 years. From my observations there have been largely 2 scenarios. Caveat, I think any average deer can get to 150" +/-. This is supported by some data, particularly the data out of UT where they measure most of the bucks taken out of their premier deer units and the average over the years is somewhere in the 160" range.

1. Random big bucks. I've seen these deer where most of the deer are not very big on average. I think these deer are those genetic outliers, the Shaq's of the deer world. Anything that is high 180's or bigger. The biggest buck I have ever seen on the hoof is around 230".

2. In my 25 years of hunting, based on my observations, there have been 2 periods of time where, observationally, I was seeing more bucks in that 170+ range than in other times. Those periods, based on my observations, were the early 2000's and the mid/late 2010's. I'm talking Eastern MT specifically. It is my hypothesis that these periods of time were a result of a series of weather events that caused significant deer die off (mid 90s winters, winter of 10-11') while simultaneously providing the moisture and lapse in heavy browsing pressure to reinvigorate habitats important to mule deer. It is my opinion that after these events, the age classes born in the 2-3 subsequent years experienced largely limitless neo-natal and early life nutrition, causing above average antler growth in many individuals. Once populations rebounded, habitats became limiting and the average buck antler size dropped, and at least in the mid 2010's case, high population levels (relative to post-2011) and drought conditions then led to the opposite happening, where male fawns were subjected to very suboptimal nutrition. I have a feeling we could experience this again in the late 2020's to 2030 with the current drop in deer numbers and the very timely wet weather we have had in 2023 and 2024 so far.
Except they will still need to get to 4 or 5 years of age to be big with the exception of the very very rare giant. Just going off observations and anecdotal age data, the vast majority of bucks won’t get there in Montana.
 
Except they will still need to get to 4 or 5 years of age to be big with the exception of the very very rare giant. Just going off observations and anecdotal age data, the vast majority of bucks won’t get there in Montana.
For sure, I completely agree. At least what I noticed the previous 2 times (in the areas I hunt) I noticed a drop in pressure for a couple yrs after those big population declines which I think temporarily caused increased probability of survival.

If you do the math using MT's accepted statistics (~40-50% total mortality, largely hunting related, for males) ~7-13% of males reach 4.5 yrs old (depending whether you use 50% or 60% annual survival). So, figure in a population that produces 25000 fawns, 12500 are male, ~875-1625 will reach age 4 1/2 years old. Even in the current structure there are some deer on the landscape with the age needed to nearly maximize their antler size, but they need kind of rare conditions for a lot of those males to become "nice" or better bucks.
 
Before listening to the podcast, I will kind of give my what I have seen happen (from an antler growth perspective) in MT in the last 25 years. From my observations there have been largely 2 scenarios. Caveat, I think any average deer can get to 150" +/-. This is supported by some data, particularly the data out of UT where they measure most of the bucks taken out of their premier deer units and the average over the years is somewhere in the 160" range.

1. Random big bucks. I've seen these deer where most of the deer are not very big on average. I think these deer are those genetic outliers, the Shaq's of the deer world. Anything that is high 180's or bigger. The biggest buck I have ever seen on the hoof is around 230".

2. In my 25 years of hunting, based on my observations, there have been 2 periods of time where, observationally, I was seeing more bucks in that 170+ range than in other times. Those periods, based on my observations, were the early 2000's and the mid/late 2010's. I'm talking Eastern MT specifically. It is my hypothesis that these periods of time were a result of a series of weather events that caused significant deer die off (mid 90s winters, winter of 10-11') while simultaneously providing the moisture and lapse in heavy browsing pressure to reinvigorate habitats important to mule deer. It is my opinion that after these events, the age classes born in the 2-3 subsequent years experienced largely limitless neo-natal and early life nutrition, causing above average antler growth in many individuals. Once populations rebounded, habitats became limiting and the average buck antler size dropped, and at least in the mid 2010's case, high population levels (relative to post-2011) and drought conditions then led to the opposite happening, where male fawns were subjected to very suboptimal nutrition. I have a feeling we could experience this again in the late 2020's to 2030 with the current drop in deer numbers and the very timely wet weather we have had in 2023 and 2024 so far.
I don't think you are wrong. Best year I ever saw was 87, eight years after the big die off of 79. Bucks lived longer back then, I was seeing 6 and 7 year old bucks back then and in the recent bounces we are seeing more 3 and 4 year old bucks with a few 5 year olds. Makes you wonder it the current management strategy of keeping populations stable is one of the reasons we are seeing fewer big deer.
 
I don't think you are wrong. Best year I ever saw was 87, eight years after the big die off of 79. Bucks lived longer back then, I was seeing 6 and 7 year old bucks back then and in the recent bounces we are seeing more 3 and 4 year old bucks with a few 5 year olds. Makes you wonder it the current management strategy of keeping populations stable is one of the reasons we are seeing fewer big deer.
I've thought about that a lot and I definitely think there is some validity in that line of thinking. Logically you would expect the years with the most big bucks to correlate with the largest age classes (high populations) just from a probabilities perspective. However, my observations have shown the opposite. Mule deer are just endlessly interesting
 
After listening to that, it confirmed to me that no matter how good the habitat or doe’s health is, you have to have an older age class of deer to see larger antlers on the landscape. Regardless of habitat, if you have a pile of 4.5-8.5 year olds on the landscape, you are going to see a good spread of heavy horned 160’s to the solid 180 to the genetic outlier freak. Habitat and population density and other factors are important and are an interesting contributor, but really mean nothing if we are whacking all the young aggressive bucks in the rut every year. I’ve seen bucks put on 25”-40” between 4.5 and 6.5, but we are killing a majority of them before they even get to 4. Is the habitat in those high elevation backcountry units really better than the rolling grassland - ponderosa pine, juniper, and agriculture interface of eastern MT, or are those bucks just getting older? @sclancy27 and @rogerthat you’ve both got well thought out perspectives and I enjoy reading your thoughts on it all though
 
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