Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

[406dn]

Most restaurants in my area are providing carry out. People are still eating out. If you have staff members that don’t want to work fine they don’t have to. I bet the majority of your staff is far more concerned about being able to pay rent or afford groceries.
My opinion would be allow restaurants or the business owners to make that decision not the fed.

First, it isn't the "fed" that has made the call. Governors have been the ones that have made the decsion.

I'd ask you,,, how many deaths are acceptable from coronavirus so that restaurants can have business as usual?

 

[mtmuley]

Remember what happened to the last thread? mtmuley

 

[El Jason]

Remember what happened to the last thread? mtmuley

You're right. I'm out.

 

[rmauch20]

I absolute want a objective conversation. The problem is most here only want to consider Covid as the only problem. When the financial side of it gets brought up, which you damn well better consider, you get accused of using the elderly, sick, etc as cannon fodder.
That is not the case, at least with me and I don’t think with anyone else.
I haven’t had to deal with a Covid patient yet, that I know of. But I am dealing with people who are already are feeling the financial impact of this.
My mistake 406 I should of used the correct term.
Maybe this is to difficult of a topic to discuss only through text.
If we destroy 100,000 small business and all that goes along with them was it worth it to save X number of lives?
I have a feeling if you were the one laid off, your house getting foreclosed on, retirement fund cut in half and savings wiped out the answer would be no.

 

[406dn]

I think everyone would agree that this a perfect $hitstorm.

But the question I asked is as valid as yours.

There are many things, we as a society could do to mitigate the financial damage done to businesses and households. No one is coming back to life if they die from the pandemic.

Personally speaking, I value life over money. You could bankrupt me, perhaps, but if I was still alive,,, I'd take it.

 

[SAJ-99]

Italy didn’t seem to mind offering the Chinese more money for a bunch of masks the US ordered.

Put yourself in China’s shoes. The US takes every chance to pin the blame for this, and basically everything else, on you. You make a ton of masks and every country is placing orders. Who’s do you fill first?
diplomacy is hard and you have to think through the scenarios before you start lobbing insults, or worse, tariffs.

 

[VAspeedgoat]

Maybe not the place for this but one thing is really puzzling me. I am a full time farmer and we can debate the pros and cons of how we do things in the US but I'd rather not go there. I am in poultry and have recently been told that the integrators are cutting production and more importantly cutting back placements (eggs to hatch), which will have a long term effect. I also read about farmers dumping milk and some stocksales shutting down or not allowing some types of livestock from a lack of market.

How can that even be possible when you go to the store and the shelves are void of milk and meat?

I admit there are many things in this world I don't understand but have people quit eating? Even if they have changed what and how they are eating the over all volume of food should be similar. Things don't add up to me.

 

[ImBillT]

Put yourself in China’s shoes. The US takes every chance to pin the blame for this, and basically everything else, on you. You make a ton of masks and every country is placing orders. Who’s do you fill first?
diplomacy is hard and you have to think through the scenarios before you start lobbing insults, or worse, tariffs.

I was pointing at Italy, not China, and I was making the point that most other countries are looking out only for themselves, yet when Trump asks 3M not to export masks until we have enough for ourselves and all 3M can come up with is to warn him about potential retaliation from other countries. That’s really not that logical of an argument right now. Not to mention, very few countries can afford to retaliate against the US.

 

[ImBillT]

Maybe not the place for this but one thing is really puzzling me. I am a full time farmer and we can debate the pros and cons of how we do things in the US but I'd rather not go there. I am in poultry and have recently been told that the integrators are cutting production and more importantly cutting back placements (eggs to hatch), which will have a long term effect. I also read about farmers dumping milk and some stocksales shutting down or not allowing some types of livestock from a lack of market.

How can that even be possible when you go to the store and the shelves are void of milk and meat?

I admit there are many things in this world I don't understand but have people quit eating? Even if they have changed what and how they are eating the over all volume of food should be similar. Things don't add up to me.

I can’t answer any of that well, but I heard part of a phone call from a regional dairy owner today. I couldn’t hear everything he said over my running equipment. He claimed that he was dumping a substantial amount of milk, and the best I could understand, it had something to do with transportation.

 

[SAJ-99]

I’d really like to know a little about co-infection. With a death rate between .6% and 2% depending on who you cite, and with the incredible number of people who don’t get very sick, I’d really like to know how many people ALSO had the flu and/or some other respiratory virus at the same time. With MILLIONS of Americans also getting the flu each year, some of those mortalities were infected with both. I’d like to know how many.

You crack me up. In minute your arguing against testing and the next you want testing data for everything. Maybe you’re coming to my side
Try

Higher co-infection rates in COVID19

Several Stanford Medicine Data Scientists are working on various aspects of COVID19. Below is one trend regarding co-infection rates that…

medium.com

 

[SAJ-99]

I was pointing at Italy, not China, and I was making the point that most other countries are looking out only for themselves, yet when Trump asks 3M not to export masks until we have enough for ourselves and all 3M can come up with is to warn him about potential retaliation from other countries. That’s really not that logical of an argument right now. Not to mention, very few countries can afford to retaliate against the US.

3M made a ridiculous argument. But China can afford to retaliate, especially in a passive-aggressive way. And they are. You reap what you sow.

 

[rmauch20]

Here’s when the coronavirus will peak in your state

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has developed a new model that predicts peak coronavirus in each US state

thehill.com

406dn,
Although the article is not peer reviewed I will assume they are “experts”. It states that if Kansas continues full on social distancing until May 20, again I will assume that includes shut down of nonessential businesses, the expected number of deaths would be around 640. My answer to your question would be no it was not worth it. The financial and economic affects would far outweigh the loss of the 640 people. Even if they would double that number to 1280 I would still say no it was not worth it.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Maybe not the place for this but one thing is really puzzling me. I am a full time farmer and we can debate the pros and cons of how we do things in the US but I'd rather not go there. I am in poultry and have recently been told that the integrators are cutting production and more importantly cutting back placements (eggs to hatch), which will have a long term effect. I also read about farmers dumping milk and some stocksales shutting down or not allowing some types of livestock from a lack of market.

How can that even be possible when you go to the store and the shelves are void of milk and meat?

I admit there are many things in this world I don't understand but have people quit eating? Even if they have changed what and how they are eating the over all volume of food should be similar. Things don't add up to me.

The modern food supply chain is super complicated and while incredibly efficient in normal situations, it can struggle with big swings in demand and periods of lack of demand clarity. There are also a lot of food products that are not immediately interchangeable with restaurant vs grocery store sales - over time the mix can pivot, but not day to day, week to week like things are going now.

 

[ImBillT]

You crack me up. In minute your arguing against testing and the next you want testing data for everything. Maybe you’re coming to my side
Try

Higher co-infection rates in COVID19

Several Stanford Medicine Data Scientists are working on various aspects of COVID19. Below is one trend regarding co-infection rates that…

medium.com

I’m arguing against testing EVERYONE. That’s not needed. I’m arguing against using it as a criteria for individuals to return to work. It’s not a perfect test. I’m not arguing against all testing for all reasons. Do I crack you up because you can’t comprehend what I’ve said or do you like to claim that I said things I didn’t say?

I do like the data in the article. I’d be interested to see how such co-infection impacted outcomes.

 

[SAJ-99]

I’m arguing against testing EVERYONE. That’s not needed. I’m arguing against using it as a criteria for individuals to return to work. It’s not a perfect test. I’m not arguing against all testing for all reasons. Do I crack you up because you can’t comprehend what I’ve said or do you like to claim that I said things I didn’t say?

You crack me up because you argue everything.

 

[ImBillT]

3M made a ridiculous argument. But China can afford to retaliate, especially in a passive-aggressive way. And they are. You reap what you sow.

I don’t disagree that China is one of the few countries that can afford to retaliate. Two good questions though would be why and how? Are you suggesting that China is going to be angered by 3M keeping masks in the US until we have enough? Shouldn’t that just open up other markets to China?

 

[VikingsGuy]

For all of those getting stressed by this thread - here is just what you have been waiting for, Minnesota inspired adult coloring books

Sheltering at home? You betcha. Celebrate the best of Minn. by coloring it in

In April, the Star Tribune has shared pages from our Minnesota coloring book by artist Kevin Cannon. Each one features a part of the state. This is our last installment, so you can assemble the pages into an oversized poster. Happy coloring!

www.startribune.com

[let's be clear proactively - this is just an attempt to get folks to chill, a tiny bit of humor - it is not an attempt to make light of an important topic or to suggest the participants on this thread are somehow "children" - carry on]

 

[ImBillT]

You crack me up because you argue everything.

You argued first. And you basically accused me of being against all testing, yet it’s clear from all of my posts that I’m not against all testing.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I don’t disagree that China is one of the few countries that can afford to retaliate. Two good questions though would be why and how? Are you suggesting that China is going to be angered by 3M keeping masks in the US until we have enough? Shouldn’t that just open up other markets to China?

The point is that global trade is tricky and a blunt hammer rarely works. So, we won't ship masks to Canada, what if they restrict pulp exports to US that we need to make masks?. Or we undercut masks getting to Ireland, but what if Ireland then directs all of Medtronics increase ventilator production to the EU? Of course politicians have to look out for home, but they have to do so in careful and nuanced manners or face unintended consequences. Grandstanding on trade during the pandemic may play to a particular segment of this administration's base, but it is definitely not the way to keep Americans safe in the big picture in my opinion.

 

[LWC55]

I think everyone would agree that this a perfect $hitstorm.

But the question I asked is as valid as yours.

There are many things, we as a society could do to mitigate the financial damage done to businesses and households. No one is coming back to life if they die from the pandemic.

Personally speaking, I value life over money. You could bankrupt me, perhaps, but if I was still alive,,, I'd take it.

It is not about valuing life over money. It is about saving some lives now vs many lives later. It is trying to save the economy now and possibly overwhelming a healthcare system for a few months. VS having a worldwide depression and crashing the entire economy and healthcare system at the same time. Have you considered how many lives will be lost in a worldwide depression? It would likely be in the many millions a year and could last decades.