Coronavirus

[LopeHunter]

I think the media coverup days here are coming to an end. They pretty much show everything on TV, even the Hong Kong beatings. The virus news is pretty much 24/7 with a break for Kobe stuff. Death rate is up to 3% which is getting up there. But as mentioned flus take many lives every year esp elderly. The 1918 flu had ~20% death rate. Bad thing about this one seems it’s spreading very fast. Been here 7 times but I’ve never seen the streets so deserted. People avoiding contact. Don’t know if it matters but I did get a flu shot this year at my doctors office.

3% is likely understated? Why? They are doing simple math. How many dead vs how many infected. But, the number infected today do not die for say two more weeks so the number dead should be compared to how many infected two weeks ago (or however long from symptoms presenting until death). If number of infected is doubling each week then two weeks ago implies over 10% death rate. I can live (pun intended) with 3% rate as likely those deaths are people with serious health issues prior to contracting coronavirus so death happened a bit prematurely. 10% death rate implies some otherwise reasonable healthy people are not surviving the virus.

I appreciate the calls for keeping things in perspective but I am not confident China is fully reporting cases of deaths and infection. In 6 months when we have 10,000s of cases here in America then will have confidence on what the death rate is. A buddy at lunch mentioned he wondered if would put meth heads at risk if they contract the virus.

 

[KipCarson]

7,700 people infected with coronavirus as of Thursday morning. 170 people have died from it so far. If my math is correct that is a 2.2% death rate.

And article I saw from early January stated that 6.4 million people had contracted the flu so far this season with 2,900 deaths. That’s only .045% death rate.

I don’t know the accuracy of those numbers, feel free to fact check and correct me. I just pulled them from a quick Google search. I havnt looked into this beyond skimming some headlines but I think the relatively high death rate is what must be causing the panic. If the world population was all infected 2% adds up to an extremely high number of dead people.

That being said I’m still not that concerned, until it starts hitting at home. If 2% of our loved ones were starting to die I can guarantee we’d all be singing a different tune... Like I said in an earlier post this day in time it’s just hard to take any media report seriously. What are they hiding, what are they exaggerating? Who knows.

 

[SAJ-99]

3% is likely understated? Why? They are doing simple math. How many dead vs how many infected. But, the number infected today do not die for say two more weeks so the number dead should be compared to how many infected two weeks ago (or however long from symptoms presenting until death)

You don't know the death rate until after the "outbreak". Hence the heavy handed response by China. What probably concerns health officials is that transmission to others can occur without symptoms (asymptomatically- now that's a word!). The true stats won't be know for months or years.

 

[KipCarson]

3% is likely understated? Why? They are doing simple math. How many dead vs how many infected. But, the number infected today do not die for say two more weeks so the number dead should be compared to how many infected two weeks ago (or however long from symptoms presenting until death). If number of infected is doubling each week then two weeks ago implies over 10% death rate. I can live (pun intended) with 3% rate as likely those deaths are people with serious health issues prior to contracting coronavirus so death happened a bit prematurely. 10% death rate implies some otherwise reasonable healthy people are not surviving the virus.

Good points. I haven't thought about the fact that it’s probably still to early to see the real death rate.

 

[Trial153]

Everything is a joke until, one day it isnt.
History is full of one days

 

[devon deer]

Forget climate change, it's bacteria and/or viruses that will be the ultimate killer of humans, over use of antibiotics and the subsequent resistant strains of bacteria will be our downfall.

 

[Aussie_hunter_JD]

Forget climate change, it's bacteria and/or viruses that will be the ultimate killer of humans, over use of antibiotics and the subsequent resistant strains of bacteria will be our downfall.

My wife is a nurse and that's what scares her. They are increasingly finding more and more bacteria that were once easily treated becoming more resistant and serious.

To me it just makes sense, we've spent the last few centuries trying to separate ourselves from nature to the point where we seem to believe we are no longer a part of it. In reality it's simple biology and evolution that these things will happen we shouldn't be surprised.

Just like factory farmed animals there are too many people too clustered together on earth now which makes it so easy for viruses and diseases to spread.

 

[SAJ-99]

Side note, think about China's response and ask "could the US have done this?". They essentially quarantined 45-50million people. This would never have happened in the US without claims of government overreach. In some ways we are lucky it originated in China. They can do things that would be unheard of in US, like scanning people (basically EVERY person walking on the street) for fever and isolating if they show as "hot". It is crazy stuff, but probably necessary for containment.

 

[Zim]

Yesterday our taxi driver here mentioned there were approx. 10 million people that left Hubei Province opening night of the spring festival last Friday before most quarantines began. Some of those were tracked down in Chengdu and returned. But really there is no way to contain these things. The people know it and all stay at home. Streets & buses are barren here. Yesterday even our bullet train to the airport was 80% empty. But very curious how full our flight out of the country will be this evening. I suspect a full house!

Ya I was studying numbers on the death rate and the disturbing thing is supposedly as of this moment there are 9,800 cases, 213 dead, 150 recovered. Well, you either die or recover. But these numbers leave 9,437 in limbo. Can't calculate a death rate until you know about those!

 

[JLS]

Given the fact a person can be contagious for two weeks prior to displaying symptoms, the odds of a quarantine being effective are slim and none.

 

[Aussie_hunter_JD]

Given the fact a person can be contagious for two weeks prior to displaying symptoms, the odds of a quarantine being effective are slim and none.

I heard that it's less than 2 weeks, the 2 weeks just ensures that they're past the point.

 

[Bigjay73]

as of this moment there are 9,800 cases, 213 dead, 150 recovered. Well, you either die or recover. But these numbers leave 9,437 in limbo.

Run the numbers long term, and on the surface this is pretty frightening

 

[Doublecluck]

This is pretty crazy story coming out of it.

Quarantine Ordered for Passenger Who Tried to Leave March Air Reserve Base After Flight From China

One of the Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, amid the coronavirus outbreak has been placed under quarantine after trying to leave March Air Reserve Base, where a chartered flight landed the pr…

www.google.com

 

[Zim]

The death rate in the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic was around 15% and that was the biggest natural disaster in earth's history. Killed around 5% of the planet. That's why I'd like to know this actual Coronavirus death rate. I don't see it getting below 3% but where is the ceiling? And it is spreading so fast. Most vulnerble time won't end until end of March, that's two full months away.

Odd part for me is this is my 5th spring festival in China. The previous 4 I got horrendous influenza's where I felt like I was gonna die. But this year is the first exception. Just got a very minor common cold which is gone already. It was also the first year I got a flu shot. Maybe it helped.

 

[JLS]

I heard that it's less than 2 weeks, the 2 weeks just ensures that they're past the point.

Heck, even if it’s a week it makes it largely impossible to quarantine. Think of how many people you come in contact with in a week, and how many each of them will.

 

[Red Fox]

Side note, think about China's response and ask "could the US have done this?". They essentially quarantined 45-50million people. This would never have happened in the US without claims of government overreach. In some ways we are lucky it originated in China. They can do things that would be unheard of in US, like scanning people (basically EVERY person walking on the street) for fever and isolating if they show as "hot". It is crazy stuff, but probably necessary for containment.

Not sure if you can praise the Chinese government on there response as they jailed the first doctors that pointed out that there was a new virus. If this happened here it would have been looking into and maybe contained sooner. From what I have heard is that they have shut down everything for fourteen days (what they think is the incubation period) then they can see who is safe to go back to work.

 

[Zim]

Leaving for the airport in 4 hours. Flight takes off in 8. We are going early in case of extra screening. Here’s some street shots of Chengdu this morning. Normally these are wall to wall people like sardines in a can. I’m ready to go home.
Step-daughter’s condo complex banned visitors today. Virtually all the people are staying in their homes. But luckily we arrived yesterday to stay overnight. Curious how busy airport is and what extra screening they might have.

 

[Old man bob]

Anyone that goes over there its nuts, I will leave it at that!..................BOB!

 

[Sytes]

To a safe and coronavirus free return Zim.

 

[WildWill]

The death rate in the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic was around 15% and that was the biggest natural disaster in earth's history. Killed around 5% of the planet. That's why I'd like to know this actual Coronavirus death rate. I don't see it getting below 3% but where is the ceiling? And it is spreading so fast. Most vulnerble time won't end until end of March, that's two full months away.

Odd part for me is this is my 5th spring festival in China. The previous 4 I got horrendous influenza's where I felt like I was gonna die. But this year is the first exception. Just got a very minor common cold which is gone already. It was also the first year I got a flu shot. Maybe it helped.

I think you skipped the bubonic plague. Hard to be accurate that far back but in many European towns and cities the death rate was as high as 50%. Be safe and hope all goes well on your trip home.