Corona virus

[Ben Lamb]

Let's do this.

 

[MO Betta]

The world is due for something that has that effect, albeit in a less fanciful way. But, I don't think it's happening in the next few months.

 

[Mudder]

Did I read that right that you think 100k people is a metro area? I'm not worried at all but i do know the Costco's and Sam's club in Colorado are out of bread and tp daily lol. are people shitin themselves about the virus?

The satellite city combined with a few attached smaller towns (me) is a 100,000. The closest metropolitan area is around twenty miles away and has a population of around 750,000 which more than doubles during the day. I wasn't very clear The shortages are likely because of hoarding, but is a preview of what could happen if the virus indisposes, say half the population or even less may be only a quarter or a third.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

“When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s just no comparison,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.” I don't think the Corona Virus is something to be overlooked, but I also don't believe it is any bigger of a threat to Americans than the normal flu. I would imagine when this is all said and done Corona Virus will not compare to the normal flu when comparing deaths in 2019-20.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S. On average according the the World Health Organization (WHO), the flue kills ~650,000 people globally each year and in a bad year has killed up to 61,000 Americans. However, you rarely hear a word from the media on these deaths. The flu rarely gets this sort of attention even though year after year it kills more people than any other virus. Back in 2003 the SARS outbreak killed 8,098 people World Wide and the flu killed 48,614 people in the United States alone. People are freaking out saying Corona Virus will be worse than SARS, but it was no where close to the common flu in 2003-04.

Corona Virus is nothing new, it has been around a while and has caused just as much panic before with SARS. There are seven known types of human coronaviruses. Four types (229E, NL63, OC43, and KHU1) are common and cause mild to moderate respiratory infections, like the common cold. Two types, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), can cause severe respiratory infections. The seventh type (2019-nCoV) is the new coronavirus recently discovered in China.

The big question is the fatality rate and transmission rate. Covid-19 appears to have a higher fatality rate but it's possible that the rate is much much lower and there are just tons of un-diagnosed cases.



These numbers are from Hopkins, based on current data it appears that Covid-19 is much more virulent. If so, then if it reaches the same number of people as the flu the death toll would be huge. But it's quite possible per above that the 92,818 cases are 10x and there is nothing to worry about.

Dr. Schaffner, I believe is assuming there are a lot of undiagnosed cases.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

 

[dcopas78]

It's hard to know what to believe, really. The media thrives off of sensationalism. People will clear out the shelves for a 1" snow storm around here because the media tells them it's going to get bad and there could be problems traveling to the stores. What I do know is that I'll handle this like I handle the flu outbreaks every year. Stay the heck away from people as much as possible, wash my hands routinely and often, clean my house and surfaces regularly, etc, etc... It's just a little bit of common sense. Will it prevent you getting the virus 100%? Probably not, but it sure as heck couldn't hurt. Oh and BTW, disinfectants are most effective if sprayed on a surface and left to dry rather than sprayed and immediately wiped off. It kills me when I see someone immediately wipe it off. It takes contact time to kill the pathogens. Some might require as long as 5 minutes with most disinfectants.

 

[Irrelevant]

I think if you're old with pre-existing health conditions (mainly respiratory) it's pretty safe to start freaking out.

 

[BuzzH]

Why believe the experts, when we can just use "hunches"...by talking to a lot of people. Easily cured by sitting around and going to work.

 

[jtm307]

Watching this thread to see who understands fat tail risk and who doesn't.

 

[JDH]

The big question is the fatality rate and transmission rate. Covid-19 appears to have a higher fatality rate but it's possible that the rate is much much lower and there are just tons of un-diagnosed cases.

View attachment 130057

These numbers are from Hopkins, based on current data it appears that Covid-19 is much more virulent. If so, then if it reaches the same number of people as the flu the death toll would be huge. But it's quite possible per above that the 92,818 cases are 10x and there is nothing to worry about.

Dr. Schaffner, I believe is assuming there are a lot of undiagnosed cases.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

If I get a fever and start hacking up stuff I will just stay home from work for a few days. Probably won't even go to the doctor to be diagnosed.

 

[Bluffgruff]

Educated guess that 10-50% of us get this, diagnosed or not. Could be pretty mild, but I'm seeing lots of people around that could have trouble. All these folks with COPD, asthma, chronic lung disease are really going to have their work cut out for them if they catch it.
On a lighter note, you should cancel that dall sheep hunt and bail on your deposit...

 

[NEWHunter]

The big question is the fatality rate and transmission rate. Covid-19 appears to have a higher fatality rate but it's possible that the rate is much much lower and there are just tons of un-diagnosed cases.

View attachment 130057

These numbers are from Hopkins, based on current data it appears that Covid-19 is much more virulent. If so, then if it reaches the same number of people as the flu the death toll would be huge. But it's quite possible per above that the 92,818 cases are 10x and there is nothing to worry about.

Dr. Schaffner, I believe is assuming there are a lot of undiagnosed cases.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

I agree, it comes down to finding out what the true fatality rate is. If it’s around 3.5%, that’s a big deal in this day and age and what’s going on will get worse before it gets better. It certainly seems contagious enough at this point.

The problem is the bulk of those numbers are coming out of China, and do we really trust anything coming out of China?

 

[LousyResident]

I

I agree, it comes down to finding out what the true fatality rate is. If it’s around 3.5%, that’s a big deal in this day and age and what’s going on will get worse before it gets better. It certainly seems contagious enough at this point.

The problem is the bulk of those numbers are coming out of China, and do we really trust anything coming out of China?

Which also means that the deaths could be heavily under reported as well. If they're shy to report illnesses I can only imagine they are shy to report deaths.

 

[stealthy_bowman]

The data coming out of South Korea is likely the best there is right now. Wide spread testing, more so than anywhere else really. They have 6088 confirmed cases and 35 deaths so far.
In the US we are terrifically under reporting because testing has just not been done until now. Shameful really.

 

[WapitiBob]

I thought people were stupid with Y2K but that pales when compared to the idiocy going on now.

 

[MTGomer]

Does this mean I have to switch to Dos Equis

You should do that anyway. Much better than corona. Don’t forget the lime.

 

[Irrelevant]

You should do that anyway. Much better than corona. Don’t forget the lime.

Shut your mouth! Corona is way better than the Dos. Now, if we're talking Carta Blanka or Pacifico then that's a different story. And never fruit the beer.

 

[Oak]

I think the real challenge we will face from this is that our healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed with patients requiring critical care. As the husband of a nurse, I can tell you that our for-profit hospitals operate at near full capacity all the time. There is no room for the number of critical patients requiring intubation, etc. And those taxed facilities will become worse when short-staffed because caregivers contract the virus. I could also just be part of Bob's idiocy. Let's hope so.

 

[rwc101]

Pacifico

My go to when slumming it at Mexican restaurants.

 

[beginnerhunter]

COVID-19’s Mortality Rate Isn’t As High As We Think

We need to be thinking about nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes.

slate.com

Here's the far right Slate magazine trying to let the Trump admin off the hook. Just kidding, I was being sarcastic.

 

[TheJason]

If I get a fever and start hacking up stuff I will just stay home from work for a few days. Probably won't even go to the doctor to be diagnosed.

Unfortunately, too many cabbages won't stay home from work when they are sick. Nothing pisses me off worse than some yahoo hacking around the office instead of using the sick leave they get.