WT - Thanks for posting that. I had never seen it before.
One thing that is hard to extract in that data, is how many guys drew their first or second choice and therefore their third choice was irrelevant.
I drew my first choice last year. So, I look like one of the guys who was shut out on my second or third choices, but I was not. We have a lot more people being listed as "not drawn" when in fact, they may have been drawn with a previous choice.
Take the hundreds who drew a first or second choice archery tag in these units. Many probably also had a third choice for some other archery units. So, these stats make it look as though those guys didn't draw their third choice and therefore were not hunting. Yet, in reality, they were hunting and did not draw their third choice because they drew a first or second choice.
It makes me wonder if the numbers FWP gave Nectar are reflective of that issue.
lamdilligaf
Member
I know "what" they would have been hunting. It's the "where" that I'm concerned with.
Lawnboy
Well-known member
Fin those numbers are a bit deceiving. For the unit you put in they advertised the quota at 750 but the actual was 412. Why they do that I have no idea. Gets your hopes up I guess. Here are nectars numbers for the unit you put in for.
Adv. quota 750
Actual quota 415
% reduction 54.93
Res 1&2 applicants 722
NR 1&2 applicants 165
Unsuccessful Res 351
Unsuccs NR
680
Makes me wonder what the actual quota for the area you put in for will be. They are advertising 800. Seems like they could get caught for false advertising the way they have been doing it.
Adv. quota 750
Actual quota 415
% reduction 54.93
Res 1&2 applicants 722
NR 1&2 applicants 165
Unsuccessful Res 351
Unsuccs NR
680
Makes me wonder what the actual quota for the area you put in for will be. They are advertising 800. Seems like they could get caught for false advertising the way they have been doing it.
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Lawnboy
Well-known member
The reality is that not everyone is willing to drive the distance to some of these units. I think they put in just to get a tag and don't really go. It doesn't really matter the number if overcrowding and over harvesting aren't a problem. The numbers sound big but is there an actual issue with overcrowding and over harvesting? Sounds like the Breaks have some of those issues but I'm pretty sure not all 22 do.
shoots-straight
Well-known member
Fin those numbers are a bit deceiving. For the unit you put in they advertised the quota at 750 but the actual was 412. Why they do that I have no idea. Gets your hopes up I guess. Here are nectars numbers for the unit you put in for.
Adv. quota 750
Actual quota 415
% reduction 54.93
Res 1&2 applicants 722
NR 1&2 applicants 165
Unsuccessful Res 351
Unsuccs NR
680
Makes me wonder what the actual quota for the area you put in for will be. They are advertising 800. Seems like they could get caught for false advertising the way they have been doing it.
Those numbers are just Tentatives. They haven't been set yet, because the data hasn't been compiled on the flight surveys by the time the regs have been printed. After the flights they adjust the quotas. You can, and should always call right before filling out your apps to see what changes took place. If they added 1 Big Horn Ram tag to a area it would greatly increase the odds. Just a FYI.
lamdilligaf
Member
For those of us that do drive the distance and have a very limited quantity of public land to hunt, overcrowding can be a real issue. Sure if you're hunting the 5E or one of the other ranches it's a non-issue. Flying into landlocked pieces with Charlie in September is questionable at best. We were all scheduled to go into that landlocked BLM two years ago in late September and he stiffed us for more lucrative fire suppression work. So, it's back to the public ground and dealing with increasing numbers of other hunters. I'm not for blanket restrictions on whole regions, but it shouldn't be too difficult to implement plans on a unit by unit basis. If I have to pick just a bow or a particular region of the state, I'm OK with that. I would rather have a somewhat restricted hunt and thoroughly enjoy myself than be able to go anywhere but have excessive competition and be POed all the time.
lamdilligaf
Member
"Flight Surveys" in those units? Those flight surveys certainly have no effect on them reducing the quota numbers in that area. They can't control the elk numbers by public hunting in that area. They should post the accurate quota number so applicants don't get shafted again when they are applying, and can use their statistics with a little confidence.
shoots-straight
Well-known member
They don't work that way. It has to go through the process. I don't know why they cut the quota from 750 to 465, maybe you fellas hunting in there should ask the local Bio that question. Instead of being P Od I'd call. At least you'd have their reasoning.
Fin those numbers are a bit deceiving. For the unit you put in they advertised the quota at 750 but the actual was 412. Why they do that I have no idea. Gets your hopes up I guess. Here are nectars numbers for the unit you put in for.
Adv. quota 750
Actual quota 415
% reduction 54.93
Res 1&2 applicants 722
NR 1&2 applicants 165
Unsuccessful Res 351
Unsuccs NR
680
Makes me wonder what the actual quota for the area you put in for will be. They are advertising 800. Seems like they could get caught for false advertising the way they have been doing it.
I don't know where you and your buddy got your numbers, but your numbers for actual quota and unsuccessfuls are wrong for 2010 in your super-secret area (which I think everybody knows of anyway so why it's so secret I don't know). If you look at the chart I posted, you will see for your super-secret hunting district that the quota was indeed 750 and if you'll notice on the right side of the chart there were actually 750 successfuls. Breaking it down further, there were 722 residents that applied as first or second choice, of which 675 drew. There were 105 third choice resident applicants, none of which drew. On the nonresident side, there were 165 first and second choice applicants, of which 75 drew. There were 61 third choice nonresident applicants, none of which drew.
So, there were 152 unsuccessful residents, not 351 as you show. And there were 151 unsuccessful nonresidents, not 680 as you posted. If the numbers you posted are not wholly from your super-secret district, as you stated, then by all means correct me.
From talking to the people in licensing, it is my understanding that the numbers in this chart only reflect those people that were eligible to draw the permit. Meaning that if someone drew their first choice, they were not counted as a second or third choice applicant in this chart as they were not eligible to draw it. Likewise they would not show in the third choice figures if they drew their first or second choice.
T
tjones
Guest
So here is the bottom line:
The total number of unsuccessful Residents that put in for first and second choice was 2234
And the total number of unsuccessful Nonresidents that put in for first and second choice was 4501.
Total number of unsuccessful/screwed over hunters was 6735
.
so this is not even close to right.
Lawnboy and sweetnectar must get their numbers from MOGA.
sweetnectar
New member
The chart WT in MT posted is the same one that I have. Please note the date on the chart and the quota numbers for all districts ending in -15 are not the actual permit numbers issued. The actual quota numbers for LE Archery permits can be found on page 30 of this years regulations.
Here are some more numbers to decifer:
411-15 750 412 45.07% reduction
420-15 630 237 62.38% reduction
500-15 150 72 52% reduction
502-15 80 57 28.75% reduction
580-15 110 57 48.18% reduction
590-15 400 228 43% reduction
620-15 1260 1206 4.29% reduction
798-15 600 310 48.33% reduction
799-15 640 254 60.31% reduction
I'm not sure why area 620 was only reduced by 4.29% vs. the other areas.
Here are some more numbers to decifer:
411-15 750 412 45.07% reduction
420-15 630 237 62.38% reduction
500-15 150 72 52% reduction
502-15 80 57 28.75% reduction
580-15 110 57 48.18% reduction
590-15 400 228 43% reduction
620-15 1260 1206 4.29% reduction
798-15 600 310 48.33% reduction
799-15 640 254 60.31% reduction
I'm not sure why area 620 was only reduced by 4.29% vs. the other areas.
sweetnectar
New member
WY in MT is that correct? I figured it was the way Randy was suggesting. Well, that makes me see things even more differently.
I also wonder if the Nonresidents that were unsuccessful had drawn a general elk license and then applied for the LE archerypermits. If so, then did they just flock to the west were they didn't need an archery permit to hunt, or stay home?
Now I don't mean to sound like I'm on a witch hunt because I'm sure the commissioners do way more for hunters than we realize. I would like to better understand these figures and I don't think FWP appreciates me digging around in their data. So I hope they understand that I'm trying to help out hunters as a whole. Heck, I can apply for a landowner tag and have great odds so this isn't just about me and my hotspot. I'm concerned at the lost hunting opportunities as a whole. Perhaps I'm just a big hippie when it comes to encouraging hunting.
T
tjones
Guest
T
tjones
Guest
sweetnectar- you are grossly misinterpreting the figures shown on the page you referenced. What you are looking at on that page are the number of first choice applicants and successfuls, both resident and nonresident combined. It does not represent the final quota or the number of second and third choice applicants/successfuls. If you would have read the information above the charts on the page you referenced, you would have seen the following and known that.
The chart I posted is what occurred in the drawing, including the total number of first, second, and third choice successful applicants. To reiterate, what you see in the regs reflects only the number of first choice applicants and how many of those were successful in drawing their first choice district.
shoots-straight
Well-known member
Nectar, do you guide on your land? If not does someone else guide there? Just trying to see where your coming from.
