Colorado Split Draw Starting 2028

[Carnage2011]

I firmly disagree.

Predictability just went out the freaking window and the points required to draw a unit with certainty almost doubled….

Not a chance.

 

[Mallardsx2]

Not a chance.

We shall see….

But depending on how applicants behave, you’ll likely be eating those words.

 

[Mallardsx2]

The math on that doesn't work out. Most units don't have applicants with 2x the points of the draw level. It'll be a couple point shift. Very few 20 point holders are applying for 10 point units, 10 point holders for 5 point units, etc.

I hope you’re right. But you won’t be.

 

[Carnage2011]

We shall see….

But depending on how applicants behave, you’ll likely be eating those words.

Math may not be your strong point.

 

[Mallardsx2]

Math may not be your strong point.

lol

good one.

I forgot more about math than you will ever know.

 

[Bluffgruff]

I hope you’re right. But you won’t be.

Gonna go ahead and bookmark this one and return in 2028 for the debriefing about how I was only partly right.

 

[Buffs35]

Curious what everyone's thoughts are on the new split draw system that will go into effect in 2028 in Colorado. Thinking about cashing in my points (albeit not many) and started wondering how this might effect peoples strategy over the next couple of years. Is it stupid to think we may see hunters cash in points before 2028 making it harder to draw units that were slam dunks in the past?

Meh. I'm saving up for landowner tags in the units I can't draw. Can't beat em, join em. Between wolves and polis anti hunting commission, Colorado is dead.

 

[huskyhunter]

I firmly disagree.

Predictability just went out the freaking window and the points required to draw a unit with certainty almost doubled….

Is your doubling prediction for the next three years, or are you thinking after the change? I don't know about double, but some units are going to be some pretty big point creep the next three years, but think starting in 2028 we will see some reduction and maybe alot.

 

[colo_junk]

A little sad to see the leftover list die. Granted it won't be completely dead, just mostly dead. I assume the changes to the leftover list were made in an attempt to get people to burn more points but my Wednesday's at 11 am just opened up for more work meetings. I do like that the tag cap applies to second choice now and it'll be interesting to see if those open up more now that some people will be chasing glory tags every year.

 

[cohunter14]

GoHunt released a good article explaining all of the upcoming changes. It's the best breakdown I've seen yet if anyone wants to check it out: GoHunt Article

 

[BuckRut]

It would be interesting if you could see the total number of preference points spent across the board each year and compare that to the next 3 years.

 

[JAG]

One thing I can see what will likely happen is an increase in point collecting since more people will apply for glory tags as their first option than ever before.

 

[Bullshot]

One thing I can see what will likely happen is an increase in point collecting since more people will apply for glory tags as their first option than ever before.

God its gonna suck for those 1st time hunters who have no idea what they are doing when they draw 201 for their first ever tag and then spend the rest of their hunting career on crappy 3rd choice or leftover tags.

 

[elkocd]

God its gonna suck for those 1st time hunters who have no idea what they are doing when they draw 201 for their first ever tag and then spend the rest of their hunting career on crappy 3rd choice or leftover tags.

My son drew a NR AZ Unit 1 archery tag as a teenager with a few points and then a great NM tag the next year His entire hunting career is forever ruined His perspective is so screwed!

 

[Mallardsx2]

God its gonna suck for those 1st time hunters who have no idea what they are doing when they draw 201 for their first ever tag and then spend the rest of their hunting career on crappy 3rd choice or leftover tags.

It kind of will, but I won't feel too bad for them.

Even a new hunter can get almost a lifetime of "OTC Encounters" in just 2 short weeks of hunting elk in unit 201.....
The number of encounters during the rut in 201 is incredible for someone who is willing to leave their truck window.... even if they are new to elk hunting...

An experienced guy I know had 63 bulls within bow range in 8 days.......

To be able to hunt that unit with a bow during the rut is a true privilege that most of us will never have.
If you have the opportunity to tag along on one of those hunts, don't think twice, do it.

I am openly posting this because 201 is no secret. EVERYONE already knows how good it is.....

 

[longtail55]

So for Moose its going to a 100% bonus draw but you have to have a minimum of 3 points, so will there be any reason to purchase points after you have 3 ? I wouldn't think so but wanted to make sure I understand

 

[cedahm]

So for Moose its going to a 100% bonus draw but you have to have a minimum of 3 points, so will there be any reason to purchase points after you have 3 ? I wouldn't think so but wanted to make sure I understand

Yes - as each addditional point slightly increases your odds. But the odds are so low with how far demand outstrips supply for MSG tags that over 15-20 years, you'll go from ~0.2% to ~5% (high level, specific tag dependent).

e.g. I have 3+15 Moose points right now, and the unit I apply for is:

3+15 = 3%
3+0 = 0.25%

So, my probability of drawing is 12X what someone's with 3+0 is.

Also, the math/probability calculations on pure bonus points (extra 'name in the hat' per point, which is what is coming) are virtually identical to the weighted bonus point math, so no real change.

Personal decision on whether the increase in odds from 'basically never' to 'probably never, but better' is worth the additional points.

 

[Bullshot]

I’ve stayed at 3+0. Was worth it to be involved for the chance, but monetarily not worth it for me to keep stacking points.

 

[longtail55]

I’ve stayed at 3+0. Was worth it to be involved for the chance, but monetarily not worth it for me to keep stacking points.

Do you have to apply then every year to make sure you don't lose your 3 points? I know other states if you don't apply after a few years than you lose them