Calculation - Odds of drawing a tag?

[Irrelevant]

^^^For a preference point state, the average number of points, multiplied by applicants, then divided by tags, underestimates draw odds dramatically in hunts with more than one available tag. If there are ten applicants averaging ten points and two tags available, and if an applicant with 20 points is drawn first, then twenty names come out of the hat, but only on tag was issued. Now there are only 80 names left in the hat. On the other hand, if the first name drawn had only one point, then there are 99 names left in the hat. In this case you first calculate the probability of a name having each possible number of points before you can move on to the remaining probability. It becomes dramatically easier to use a computer simulation repeated thousands of time. GoHunt claims to do this. I did it the long way for hunt in Utah, compared to GoHunt, and said “yep that was money well spent”.

In Nevada if a person with 20pts is drawn, 400 raffle tickets are removed from the pot! Unfortunately even taking this into account the odds for most hunts in NV are pretty poor.

If you have 10k people applying for 2 tags (typ WA) It doesn't make a flying fudge of a difference who gets drawn your odds do not appreciably change.

 

[Gr8bawana]

BillT can I ask what it is you do or have done for a career. I gotta admit this is one of the more challenging threads to follow but it was pretty damn fun at the same time. Alls I know is odds suck no matter how you look at it. In mt when we look at the " big 3" a 1% draw for sheep is considered "pretty good chance" when really that's pretty damn sad. It's still only one percent. I guess you gotta play the game though. Someone is gonna draw might as well be you or me.

According to some here the odds are so bad we are just wasting our time and money by applying. So we should save our $$ and absolutely guarantee we will NEVER draw by not applying.
That being said I will continue wasting my $$. By you guys not applying my odds will be better.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

According to some here the odds are so bad we are just wasting our time and money by applying. So we should save our $$ and absolutely guarantee we will NEVER draw by not applying.
That being said I will continue wasting my $$. By you guys not applying my odds will be better.

Bro, shhhh your gonna ruin it

 

[ImBillT]

My opinion is that knowing the odds helps you make the best use of your money. If you can allly for everything, then applying for more, even if it’s for the lowest probability hunts that you can still add, increases your odds of drawing something. On the other hand, if you have a limited amount of money, you should apply for the highest probability/cheapest hunts that interest you. Points schemes shift the distribution of successful applicants toward those who have been unsuccessful for longer. Different schemes shift more heavily than others. Understanding this effect helps the hunter with a limited budget maximize his effectiveness.

 

[EYJONAS!]

According to some here the odds are so bad we are just wasting our time and money by applying. So we should save our $$ and absolutely guarantee we will NEVER draw by not applying.
That being said I will continue wasting my $$. By you guys not applying my odds will be better.

Good for you. Mr. Great One.

 

[antelopedundee]

If you have 10k people applying for 2 tags (typ WA) It doesn't make a flying fudge of a difference who gets drawn your odds do not appreciably change.

Even a slim chance is better than no chance. Then again a fat chance and a slim chance are the same thing.

 

[antelopedundee]

My opinion is that knowing the odds helps you make the best use of your money. If you can allly for everything, then applying for more, even if it’s for the lowest probability hunts that you can still add, increases your odds of drawing something. On the other hand, if you have a limited amount of money, you should apply for the highest probability/cheapest hunts that interest you. Points schemes shift the distribution of successful applicants toward those who have been unsuccessful for longer. Different schemes shift more heavily than others. Understanding this effect helps the hunter with a limited budget maximize his effectiveness.

If you applied for say 15 low draw probability tags and by some miracle of miracles you got all 15 tags, would you be able to fill or try to fill all 15 in a single fall hunting season?

 

[LopeHunter]

If you applied for say 15 low draw probability tags and by some miracle of miracles you got all 15 tags, would you be able to fill or try to fill all 15 in a single fall hunting season?

Yes. I am up for that challenge. The funds are set aside. I might have to retire to have the time needed but that is okay, too. Tag Gods, are you listening?

 

[ImBillT]

If you applied for say 15 low draw probability tags and by some miracle of miracles you got all 15 tags, would you be able to fill or try to fill all 15 in a single fall hunting season?

A) You should never allow fear of the extremely improbable to prevent you from enjoying the probable. The odds of applying for fifteen hunts with 50% draw odds and drawing all of them is .00003 or 3/100,000. If we all applied like that, then yeah, a few of us would have fifteen hunts on our hands. (I apply for some really high odds hunts, but not fifteen of them, and not after I’ve already drawn one in another state.) The probability of applying for fifteen hunts with 1% draw odds and drawing them all is .0000000000000000000000000000001. Lottery odds are waaaaay better. The odds of winning the jackpot in Mega Millions is 1/302,575,350. You’re actually more likely to win the Mega Millions jackpot three times in a row than to apply for fifteen 1% odds hunts in a year and draw them all that year.

B) Why would I apply for fifteen tags that I couldn’t bring myself to give up, and whose draw dates caused unavoidable conflicts? If we’re taking about highly desirable tags, then I’m not even sure if fifteen unavoidable conflicts exist. It’s not like every drawing occurs at the same time. The drawings and results are staggered such that you can apply for quite a few hunts without having to apply for one before getting the results for another. You obviously can’t apply for every species in every state without applying in a few states before you get results for another, and perhaps if you looked at the most desirable hunt for every species in every state, you could find fifteen unavoidable conflicts, but most people applying for that many things in that many places have the time and resources to handle a few conflicts here and there. UT, which probably overlaps the most other states, is set up so that you can only draw one limited entry tag per year in the state. For the drawings that I apply for there are very few conflicts, and where they occur I can try to hunt around the conflict or donate a tag. Only one of those potential conflicts doesn’t involve an OIL species. Yes, there are more conflicts if I applied for every species in every state that I apply in with no regard for anything other than getting drawn. That’s not what I do though. If I draw an elk tag, I’m not applying for anymore elk tags in later draws. The same goes for everything else I apply for. Furthermore, once I draw a tag, I will no longer apply for tags for any species with hunt dates that conflict with the tags I’ve already drawn, except for the OIL species, in which case, I’ll deal with a conflict.

About 1/250,000 Montana residents is struck by lightning each year. If you prefer to fear drawing all fifteen of the tags that you would like to apply for this year, that’s your call. Personally I’m not too worried about being struck by lightning five times...in a single year. (I don’t live in MT. They just get struck by lightning more often than most people)

On the flip side, if you apply for fifteen hunts with 1% odds you have a 14% chance of drawing at least one of them, and a 1.8% chance of drawing two.

 

[Trial153]

Too many good tags is problem I would love to have ...

 

[LCH]

I see a lot of people out on the forums get hung up on the draws, points, etc., to the point where it leads to bitterness and anger when they don't draw their dream tag. Some even seem to think that, since they've participated for 10, 20, 30 years that they're almost "owed" a tag from the state.

I currently participate in quite a few states, but it's not end all/be all if I draw a tag or not. There is a 100% chance that I'll be hunting somewhere, even if that means leftover or OTC.

I think most of the guys in this thread pretty much have their strategy nailed down, know what they're doing, and are hunting every year regardless of draws. For anybody new to the system, of which several seem to join up on HT every day, I'd advise to first make sure that you're hunting every year, no matter what. Look at the draw as an "upgrade" for better season dates, weapon choices, reduced hunter crowding, etc. If you're from the Midwest, don't hang all of your elk hunting hopes on drawing a coveted rut tag in NV, AZ, etc. Hunt OTC or cow tags, apply for high-odds hunts, and when you hit it big in the draw take your tag and go.

At this point in the game I see very little value for someone new to enter a point system with intentions of drawing a tag that takes anywhere close to max points. Sure, if you're 20 now you may draw the tag when you're 65. Then there could be drought, monsoon rains, etc., and the lifetime of points and probably tens of thousands of dollars could all be for naught.

The reality is that not everybody has the same opportunities due to age, residency, budget, physical ability, etc. You have to craft a plan unique for you and your situation, and make the best of whatever that situation might be.

 

[Alabama]

I've always been on the more reserved side when applying for tags, I've always feared drawing too many and not being able to dedicate the time to be successful on any of them. That strategy has shifted the last couple years. I'll always hunt, whether it be OTC or leftover, but I'd rather have too many rather than zero LE tags like I did in 2016 and 2017. With that said I'm tagless so far this year, I really thought I would be chasing late season elk in AZ (odds were 65%-100% at my point level the last 5 years). Thanks to the methods described here I calculated I had a 55% chance in NM (0% now lol). I better shift my choices in NV or plan on WY deer or lopes if I want a LE tag this year (I probably shouldn't bank on my 8.49% odds in UT panning out). Thanks guys this thread has been really helpful.

 

[Elkmagnet]

. For anybody new to the system, of which several seem to join up on HT every day, I'd advise to first make sure that you're hunting every year, no matter what. Look at the draw as an "upgrade" for better season dates, weapon choices, reduced hunter crowding, etc. If you're from the Midwest, don't hang all of your elk hunting hopes on drawing a coveted rut tag in NV, AZ, etc. Hunt OTC or cow tags, apply for high-odds hunts, and when you hit it big in the draw take your tag and go.

At this point in the game I see very little value for someone new to enter a point system with intentions of drawing a tag that takes anywhere close to max points. Sure, if you're 20 now you may draw the tag when you're 65. Then there could be drought, monsoon rains, etc., and the lifetime of points and probably tens of thousands of dollars could all be for naught.

I would almost take it a step further and say you don't want a LE tag as a first tag. The pressure to harvest a big animal with a hard to get tag, without the knowledge to do so will likely cloud over the hunt and alter the experience.

 

[Baerman]

Well, I didn't draw last year off 23 applications that I would guess averaged 3% to 4% odds. I drew a tag the year before that had roughly 4% odds. And I drew a NM unit 30 barbary tag this year...so far. So far, Wapiti's simple calculation is good enough for me.

Interesting thoughts in here though.

 

[AggieOutlaw]

Guys, there has been a huge waste of neurons on this thread.
WapitiBob gave you the correct formula on page one.

Multiply together all your probabilities of not drawing (1-P(drawing)) to find your total probability of NOT drawing. Then don’t forget to subtract this from 1 to find the probability of drawing any one tag.

P(not drawing any tag) = (1-P(draw 1))*(1-P(draw 2))*...*(1-P(draw N))

P(drawing any tag) =1-P(not drawing any tag)

As long as draws are independent events, there are no other ways to solve the OP’s problem.

 

[mdhunter]

I apply for a bunch of different hunts every year. Ultimately the odds of that tag ending up in my pocket are 100% or zero

 

[Losing_Sanity]

You all have a better brain than I do... It is mind boggling. I just figure my odds of drawing are pretty much "null" as I'm pretty unlucky in most cases. Unless I draw then it's miraculously 100%. I just figure I'm contributing to the Fish and Game to do their thing most of the time.

 

[antelopedundee]

For Wyoming non-resident deer which are drawn first, area tags or regional tags?