LopeHunter
Well-known member
Many of you have heard by now that Arizona is changing how they allot tags to non-residents (NR). Starting in 2016 the prior “up to 10% of all tags to NR” with up to 20% of all tags allotted during preference round will now be “up to 5% of tags during preference round to NR” and another up to 5% during the random pass.
What does this mean for you in 2016? If are a resident, almost no change is needed in your strategy. If are a non-resident (NR) then you may want to change your choices in 2016.
A hunt code that in 2015 had all NR tags allotted during the preference round will now have some tags available to NR during the random round. For example, if you liked 13B for deer in 2015 for your 1st or 2nd choice for deer and were a NR with less than max points (18) as you applied then you had 0% chance to draw that deer tag. In 2016, you will have a chance. Most likely a 1/1000 chance, but a chance as a Pet Detective once noted.
If you are in the max point pool then your odds in 2016 as a NR are ½ of what they were in 2015. The NR max point pool will erode at 1/2 the rate as recent years. 20 of 120 18 pointers were cleared out in 2015. Look for only 10 to clear out in 2016. Resident max point pool will decline by 10 more, though, so look for resident point pools at the top to clear out faster, 50% faster than before 2016.
There is no guarantee NR will draw any of the random pass tags. Will NR draw any tags in the random pass or is this a bait and switch to chop NR tag allocation in half? Will NR draw the “up to 5%” limit? I think so, especially in the high quality choices.
Here is an example for 2016. 1000 applicants apply for a hunt with 100 tags. Is 1000 applicants realistic? 13B was hunt #1021 in 2015 with 70 tags and had 5887 applicants select that hunt as 1st or 2nd choice. NR could draw up to 7 of those tags in 2015 and drew 7, all in the preference point pass. So 1000 is reasonable for an example.
In this made up example of 1000 applicants, let’s assume 90% of applicants are resident and 10% are NR. That seems a reasonable assumption for a high demand deer tag such as 13B.
So, 900 residents apply and 100 NR. First pass awards 20 tags by preference to total bonus points of the applicant. Of those 20 tags, only up to 5 tags (100 x 5%) can go to NR in the preference pass in 2016. So 5 NR draw in the preference pass leaving 95 NR to participate in the random pass. Residents got 15 tags in the preference round so 885 are now in the random pass. A total of 95 + 885 (980) are in the bonus pass and 95/885 are NR which is 10.7%.
About 1 out of 10 times an application is drawn (10.7%) then NR applicants will expect to hit the NR “up to” cap after F&G looks at 50 applications in the random pass. No guarantee but is likely NR pull just as many tags in high demand units in 2016 as in 2015 even with half the NR tags being at risk in the random pass.
Even if NR are just 60 of the 1000 applicants for these 100 tags NR have 55/980 = 5.6% in the random pass so NR are expected to get the 5 tags before 80 applications are reviewed in the random pass. If NR are 200 of the 1000 then is even more likely draw hit the 5% cap.
How will application behavior change?
NR max point holders will take almost 2x as many years to draw in the preference pass. Last year about 20% of the max point pool drew out so would take 4 or 5 more years at the 2015 rate to clear that point class out but now will see only about 10% of the max point pool clear out in 2016. If you are max point holder who applied in 2015 for 13B, do you stop applying for 13B in 2016? Not likely. Your odds are worse in 2016 but unless you are willing to exit the points game then you are still wanting a great hunt like 13B can be.
What if you are not a NR max point holder? You get 2 choices right? If you applied last year for 13B you were drawing dead in 2015. Now in 2016, you have a 1/5887 chance at each of the random tags so 4/5887 which are tough odds but better than 0%. Why not take a roll of the dice with your 1st choice then can use your 2nd choice for a more likely to draw tag? I think you will see this as many people use the same strategy in NM.
I think this will actually bring in more NR applicants since as a person without max deer points you will have a slight chance to draw a high quality tag in 2016 which you never had a chance at in 2015. No more tags will go to NR but the process will be seen as more “fair” by some NR and may even attract new NR applicants to Arizona’s draw.
Will total applications go up in the better units such as 13A? I think so and will mostly be NR applicants as the increase. Residents have no reason to change strategy in 2016 since their 2016 odds are not really changing except they have 15% of all tags in the 2016 preference pass rather than 10% in 2015 when NR had half the tags in that pass. If 5887 applicants applied in 2015 then I predict an increase in 2016 as NR with only a few points take a roll of the dice. How many more apply? Maybe 200 more NR. Resident max point pool will draw more often in the preference pass so they will erode 50% faster in 2016 than 2015. Since NR max point pool will erode at 50% of the 2015 pace so residents will see their max point creep slow while NR creep increases.
Okay, what hunts will have less NR application pressure? Will it be the hunts that are drawn with 0 points? 5 points? 10 points? 15 points? I think the hunts in the 0 to 3 point range will see less pressure. Most applicants have fewer than 10 points. Many have less than 3. Will this lead to more leftover tags? I think fewer since some of the newer NR applicants will use the second choice on a likely to draw hunt for 0 points.
Time will see. Your thoughts?
What does this mean for you in 2016? If are a resident, almost no change is needed in your strategy. If are a non-resident (NR) then you may want to change your choices in 2016.
A hunt code that in 2015 had all NR tags allotted during the preference round will now have some tags available to NR during the random round. For example, if you liked 13B for deer in 2015 for your 1st or 2nd choice for deer and were a NR with less than max points (18) as you applied then you had 0% chance to draw that deer tag. In 2016, you will have a chance. Most likely a 1/1000 chance, but a chance as a Pet Detective once noted.
If you are in the max point pool then your odds in 2016 as a NR are ½ of what they were in 2015. The NR max point pool will erode at 1/2 the rate as recent years. 20 of 120 18 pointers were cleared out in 2015. Look for only 10 to clear out in 2016. Resident max point pool will decline by 10 more, though, so look for resident point pools at the top to clear out faster, 50% faster than before 2016.
There is no guarantee NR will draw any of the random pass tags. Will NR draw any tags in the random pass or is this a bait and switch to chop NR tag allocation in half? Will NR draw the “up to 5%” limit? I think so, especially in the high quality choices.
Here is an example for 2016. 1000 applicants apply for a hunt with 100 tags. Is 1000 applicants realistic? 13B was hunt #1021 in 2015 with 70 tags and had 5887 applicants select that hunt as 1st or 2nd choice. NR could draw up to 7 of those tags in 2015 and drew 7, all in the preference point pass. So 1000 is reasonable for an example.
In this made up example of 1000 applicants, let’s assume 90% of applicants are resident and 10% are NR. That seems a reasonable assumption for a high demand deer tag such as 13B.
So, 900 residents apply and 100 NR. First pass awards 20 tags by preference to total bonus points of the applicant. Of those 20 tags, only up to 5 tags (100 x 5%) can go to NR in the preference pass in 2016. So 5 NR draw in the preference pass leaving 95 NR to participate in the random pass. Residents got 15 tags in the preference round so 885 are now in the random pass. A total of 95 + 885 (980) are in the bonus pass and 95/885 are NR which is 10.7%.
About 1 out of 10 times an application is drawn (10.7%) then NR applicants will expect to hit the NR “up to” cap after F&G looks at 50 applications in the random pass. No guarantee but is likely NR pull just as many tags in high demand units in 2016 as in 2015 even with half the NR tags being at risk in the random pass.
Even if NR are just 60 of the 1000 applicants for these 100 tags NR have 55/980 = 5.6% in the random pass so NR are expected to get the 5 tags before 80 applications are reviewed in the random pass. If NR are 200 of the 1000 then is even more likely draw hit the 5% cap.
How will application behavior change?
NR max point holders will take almost 2x as many years to draw in the preference pass. Last year about 20% of the max point pool drew out so would take 4 or 5 more years at the 2015 rate to clear that point class out but now will see only about 10% of the max point pool clear out in 2016. If you are max point holder who applied in 2015 for 13B, do you stop applying for 13B in 2016? Not likely. Your odds are worse in 2016 but unless you are willing to exit the points game then you are still wanting a great hunt like 13B can be.
What if you are not a NR max point holder? You get 2 choices right? If you applied last year for 13B you were drawing dead in 2015. Now in 2016, you have a 1/5887 chance at each of the random tags so 4/5887 which are tough odds but better than 0%. Why not take a roll of the dice with your 1st choice then can use your 2nd choice for a more likely to draw tag? I think you will see this as many people use the same strategy in NM.
I think this will actually bring in more NR applicants since as a person without max deer points you will have a slight chance to draw a high quality tag in 2016 which you never had a chance at in 2015. No more tags will go to NR but the process will be seen as more “fair” by some NR and may even attract new NR applicants to Arizona’s draw.
Will total applications go up in the better units such as 13A? I think so and will mostly be NR applicants as the increase. Residents have no reason to change strategy in 2016 since their 2016 odds are not really changing except they have 15% of all tags in the 2016 preference pass rather than 10% in 2015 when NR had half the tags in that pass. If 5887 applicants applied in 2015 then I predict an increase in 2016 as NR with only a few points take a roll of the dice. How many more apply? Maybe 200 more NR. Resident max point pool will draw more often in the preference pass so they will erode 50% faster in 2016 than 2015. Since NR max point pool will erode at 50% of the 2015 pace so residents will see their max point creep slow while NR creep increases.
Okay, what hunts will have less NR application pressure? Will it be the hunts that are drawn with 0 points? 5 points? 10 points? 15 points? I think the hunts in the 0 to 3 point range will see less pressure. Most applicants have fewer than 10 points. Many have less than 3. Will this lead to more leftover tags? I think fewer since some of the newer NR applicants will use the second choice on a likely to draw hunt for 0 points.
Time will see. Your thoughts?
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