Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[AlaskaHunter]

Well with the year end, the S&P 500 rose by 27% in 2021....
the Dow gained 19% , while the Nasdaq gained 21%.
The Fed kept interest rates near zero and continued pumping billions of dollars into markets each month in 2021.
And Congress pass COVID-relief packages and huge infrastructure bills.

2022 will be likely different with a rise in interest rates, the Fed ending their monthly bond-buying program by March 2022,
the House/Senate likely to flip and no more big spending bills out of Congress, plus likely substantial inflation in 2022.

 

[SAJ-99]

Well with the year end, the S&P 500 rose by 27% in 2021....
the Dow gained 19% , while the Nasdaq gained 21%.
The Fed kept interest rates near zero and continued pumping billions of dollars into markets each month in 2021.
And Congress pass COVID-relief packages and huge infrastructure bills.

2022 will be likely different with a rise in interest rates, the Fed ending their monthly bond-buying program by March 2022,
the House/Senate likely to flip and no more big spending bills out of Congress, plus likely substantial inflation in 2022.

Going to be interesting. The questions are how to protect a portfolio from inflation. Equities seem to be everyones favorite investment and hedge. Only problem is we are paying 22x 2022 earnings with a record profit margin built in. There is little room for error. So it's a game of guessing what could go wrong, or at least what could market participants perceive as wrong?

 

[noharleyyet]

Going to be interesting. The questions are how to protect a portfolio from inflation. Equities seem to be everyones favorite investment and hedge. Only problem is we are paying 22x 2022 earnings with a record profit margin built in. There is little room for error. So it's a game of guessing what could go wrong, or at least what could market participants perceive as wrong?

The 24 hr news cycle and quantitative insemination?

 

[Flatrock]

Going to be interesting. The questions are how to protect a portfolio from inflation. Equities seem to be everyones favorite investment and hedge. Only problem is we are paying 22x 2022 earnings with a record profit margin built in. There is little room for error. So it's a game of guessing what could go wrong, or at least what could market participants perceive as wrong?

Stick with the 2 top favorites of @BigHornRam. Tesla and Bitcoin!!!!!

Not much for options besides equities right now with where bonds are at.

There's always a million things that could go wrong. Climb that wall of worry.

 

[SAJ-99]

The 24 hr news cycle and quantitative insemination?

You lost me on that one.

 

[SAJ-99]

Stick with the 2 top favorites of @BigHornRam. Tesla and Bitcoin!!!!!

Not much for options besides equities right now with where bonds are at.

There's always a million things that could go wrong. Climb that wall of worry.

Sure, millions. Name your top three. Be specific. Not “inflation” or “rising rates”. That’s just Boomer news fodder.

 

[LousyResident]

Stick with the 2 top favorites of @BigHornRam. Tesla and Bitcoin!!!!!

Not much for options besides equities right now with where bonds are at.

There's always a million things that could go wrong. Climb that wall of worry.

Up over 13% today! Failproof! LOL

 

[Flatrock]

Sure, millions. Name your top three. Be specific. Not “inflation” or “rising rates”. That’s just Boomer news fodder.

The only thing that I would really care about is if the yield curve inverts. Beyond that though, there's an almost endless number of reasons why the market could temporarily go lower next year. The 10 year yield spiking, the 10 year yield tumbling, higher oil prices, lower oil prices, higher inflation, lower inflation, crypto skyrocketing, crypto crashing, Democrats keeping both the House and Senate, Republicans winning both the House and Senate, tax reform, high valuations, and on and on and on. I have no way of predicting any of that though or how it will affect the market. Thus, I will just keep sitting on my hands and keep riding the index.

Yea the market valuation is concerning but I don't know how big of a deal it will be. Could have made the same argument the last few years. Will put some money to work in 2022 though and would love to see the 10-15% drop that everyone has been predicting since the 2020 low.

 

[TOGIE]

whatever you do, don't underestimate the power of #yolo

 

[Sytes]

Sheesh, I've been out of the market so darn long... still have my 50 shares of moderna from back $13. Played with numerous option swing trades, held 500 shares and wanted to play another...
Hindsight ass kick!!!

Does hindsight always have to be 20/20??? WTF?!?!? Sure wouldn't mind foggy memory glasses. Though the 50 shares, while great to have its return always keeps a clear view of my past decisions.

Haha! Love/hate market plays. And yep... still waiting on SENS to get their FDA. HOPEFULLY before Apple finds diabetic readings from a flipping watch! Haha!

SENS is gold at this price. I've made my money catching the $4 and buying back at current. It's been pretty predictable to play. Been playing with house $ on SENS for a while now.

Playing them again w/ 40 April 1.5 calls and 2k shares.

 

[npaden]

My TCNNF from mid year ended up sucking. I sold it at a pretty good loss right at the end of the year to help offset some of my other realized gains from getting some covered calls exercised. My biggest winners for 2021 were IPI, GM and APPL. I didn't realize any of those gains though.

I never try to time the market on my 401k (leave everything invested all the time) and just plugged this year's performance into the 'ol spreadsheet and had a 16.25% return this year in it. This was my 31st year in the 401k and my 31 year average return now sits at 12.44%. My best return ever was 1999 (dot com bubble) with a 88.26% return (followed by 3 straight years of losses) and my worst return ever was 2008 at -45.79%. With 3 straight years of better than average returns I really think it is for sure time for a correction, but the market surprises folks a lot smarter than me on a regular basis.

 

[npaden]

Per Fidelity my YTD performance on my brokerage account last year was 22.75%. Not bad considering I've been sitting on about 25% in cash since I have thought the market was overpriced most of the year. My son's account ended up 44.13% for the year. His 2 biggest holdings are AAPL and GOOG.

 

[LousyResident]

My IRA did ok:



My brokerage account did not do as well.



That was primarily due to GME (yay!) and then CCIV/LCID right after (boo!). Check out the first quarter I had:

 

[Big Slick]

I bought a $3.40 stock it’s down to $3.10. The dividend is where it’s at, riding at 12-13%.

 

[Irrelevant]

Well I'll own up.
Robinhood: -5.11% (F U QS!)
Brokerage: -2%
IRA: 24.1%
401k: 26.9%

Notice that I manage mess with the top two and never touch the bottom two.

I should probably stop touching the top two.

 

[PaulRevere]

Brokerage: 10.4%
Roth: 31.38%

Maybe I will be able to retire someday.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

My TCNNF from mid year ended up sucking. I sold it at a pretty good loss right at the end of the year to help offset some of my other realized gains from getting some covered calls exercised. My biggest winners for 2021 were IPI, GM and APPL. I didn't realize any of those gains though.

I never try to time the market on my 401k (leave everything invested all the time) and just plugged this year's performance into the 'ol spreadsheet and had a 16.25% return this year in it. This was my 31st year in the 401k and my 31 year average return now sits at 12.44%. My best return ever was 1999 (dot com bubble) with a 88.26% return (followed by 3 straight years of losses) and my worst return ever was 2008 at -45.79%. With 3 straight years of better than average returns I really think it is for sure time for a correction, but the market surprises folks a lot smarter than me on a regular basis.

Love this anecdotal experience. I was discussing the market the other day with someone, paying off student loans in a lump sum versus, PAYE and then investing, and they were claiming you can expect X return. They just didn't get my explanation that yeah on a 30year time frame, but that over a short time frame who knows and that wouldn't be my strategy as I'm very risk adverse. Time frame was like 5-10 years. 88% and -45% are even larger swings that I had used to explain my point

 

[npaden]

My returns are a bit higher as I am not risk adverse but that generally results in more volatility. I haven't ever intentionally had a bond fund in my 401k investments ever. After getting clobbered after the dot com bubble I learned to rebalance annually. Some international exposure, some real estate exposure, etc. That didn't help much in 2008 because everything got hammered though.

Looking around on my spreadsheet the worst 10 year return was from 2000 to 2009 which had the dot com crash plus the 2008 crash in it. That 10 year return was 34.97% for an average of 3.5% return each year. My best 10 year return was from 1995 to 2004 with a 10 year return of 172.55% for an average of 17.26%. Too bad that was before I had a bunch of money in it.

Last 10 years have averaged 12.7% with a high of 27.35% in 2019 and a low of -7.03% in 2018. Generally if there is a good year there is going to be a bad year close behind and the opposite is true that if there is a bad year there is generally going to be a good year close behind.

 

[Irrelevant]

Generally if there is a good year there is going to be a bad year close behind and the opposite is true that if there is a bad year there is generally going to be a good year close behind.

Hmmm that doesn't bode well for 2022, but then again, that wouldn't have boded well for 2020 or 2021 either.

 

[NEWHunter]

Did a lousy 20.0% in 2021 across my accounts. Being overweight in V, MA, and AMZN backfired. Also took a couple of gambles that didn’t pan out. Trying to figure out what I want to do to avoid two consecutive years of under performance.