Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

BRK has been a no brainer for decades. Buffet's succession plan (RIP Mr. Munger) will insure it remains so. My goodness and heaven forbid, but if there were ever a breakup can you imagine the rewards that shareholders would end up with? No idea here, but it they would be on a staggering scale.

BRK.A total return is pretty much inline with market over last 30yrs and has trailed over the last 15. I think your post shows how the perception of Buffet and Munger has been built into one of almost celebrity. The question of valuation in a break up is very interesting. Half of BRK.A is now public companies so there wouldn't be an impact of any breakup. Another 20% is cash. The question of what the privately held stuff is worth as publicly traded versus held by a person who thinks no company should ever be sold and isn't actively involve in management is the interesting part. BRK.A has a P/E of 10 and I tend to think the market has efficiently priced the holdings. I'm not sure that Dairy Queen is worth more as a public company than it is as a holding in BRK.A? I think the same can be said of a lot of companies held by Pvt Equity. There are a lot of overvalued stuff sitting in VC funds waiting to go public when the sentiment improves. The problem with making some of BRK holding public is they actually make money and have a more direct valuation. My guess is some would pop, others would fizzle. There is not a lot held by BRK that can be valued on overly optimistic future scenarios, but a lot would be immediate takeover targets.

 

[FREAK]

Where's the top is my question. AI seems to be going off right now.

 

[huntandfly]

Where's the top is my question. AI seems to be going off right now.

There is no top, stocks only go up

 

[SAJ-99]

Where's the top is my question. AI seems to be going off right now.
View attachment 314591

I think at some point investors will say "Great story, now show me the money". A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in these names. Just can't tell you when that will be.

Side Note- How the hell is INTC classified an AI stock on this list?

 

[VikingsGuy]

I think at some point investors will say "Great story, now show me the money". A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in these names. Just can't tell you when that will be.

Side Note- How the hell is INTC classified an AI stock on this list?

Nah - they say, “keep selling that dream while I dump these shares on the next optimistic sucker”.

 

[SAJ-99]

Nah - they say, “keep selling that dream while I dump these shares on the next optimistic sucker”.

Some of these names are making AMC and GME look like good investments.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Where's the top is my question. AI seems to be going off right now.
View attachment 314591

It is though also time to buy long puts here as high as you can afford. RSI 90% or better is a failsafe fail indicator.

 

[FREAK]

I think at some point investors will say "Great story, now show me the money". A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in these names. Just can't tell you when that will be.

Side Note- How the hell is INTC classified an AI stock on this list?

I think it's more to do with the companies supplying the computing power. NVID provides a lot of video processing and computing power for self driving and other AI ventures.

 

[SAJ-99]

I think it's more to do with the companies supplying the computing power. NVID provides a lot of video processing and computing power for self driving and other AI ventures.

Sure. But look at the gains. NVDA up 40% YTD, SMCI up 140%, AMD up only 16%, ARM up 20% after its earnings today alone. The question is are the buyers of these chips making money with them and how are they doing that? Seems like all a story right now. Market does this all the time. Extrapolates the current into the future forever. Reality hits at some point, just can't say if that is at these levels or 100% higher.

 

[VikingsGuy]

It is though also time to buy long puts here as high as you can afford. RSI 90% or better is a failsafe fail indicator.

Please oh please, only really experienced folk who can afford big losses should ever play the options/futures game. It’s all fun and games until the margin call comes.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Sure. But look at the gains. NVDA up 40% YTD, SMCI up 140%, AMD up only 16%, ARM up 20% after its earnings today alone. The question is are the buyers of these chips making money with them and how are they doing that? Seems like all a story right now. Market does this all the time. Extrapolates the current into the future forever. Reality hits at some point, just can't say if that is at these levels or 100% higher.

American “growth” stocks are purely speculative - you are just guessing what indicator gets the next sucker to buy or sell - when you can trade shares every millisecond there is not a “reality hits” moment. Now the bubble may very well pop, but it will be only loosely tied to true long term business fundementals. If you want to trade where there is a real reality underlying the price trade ag commodities - there is a real S&D that largely trues up every crop season and you may end up with a rail car of grain dumped on your front lawn . But actually don’t - trading ag commodities without deep S&D insights is a lousy bet for the average person.

 

[rogerthat]

Please oh please, only really experienced folk who can afford big losses should ever play the options/futures game. It’s all fun and games until the margin call comes.

You can buy calls and puts in a cash account. If you buy them cash secured it’s not nearly as risky. My best returns were back in the old days when I used options to juice my returns than life happens.

 

[rogerthat]

American “growth” stocks are purely speculative - you are just guessing what indicator gets the next sucker to buy or sell - when you can trade shares every millisecond there is not a “reality hits” moment. Now the bubble may very well pop, but it will be only loosely tied to true long term business fundementals. If you want to trade where there is a real reality underlying the price trade ag commodities - there is a real S&D that largely trues up every crop season and you may end up with a rail car of grain dumped on your front lawn . But actually don’t - trading ag commodities without deep S&D insights is a lousy bet for the average person.

Haha. Yeah options are risky

 

[VikingsGuy]

You can buy calls and puts in a cash account. If you buy them cash secured it’s not nearly as risky. My best returns were back in the old days when I used options to juice my returns than life happens.

I agree there are ways to reduce risk, but if one has to ask which ones they are is probably already in over their head. We live in a country that a majority of folks don’t even save enough to max out their employer 401k match and that don’t realize that math proves you can’t consistently time markets. 99% of folks just need to follow the Vanguard way.

 

[rogerthat]

I agree there are ways to reduce risk, but if one has to ask which ones they are is probably already in over their head. We live in a country that a majority of folks don’t even save enough to max out their employer 401k match and that don’t realize that math proves you can’t consistently time markets. 99% of folks just need to follow the Vanguard way.

Isn’t that the truth. Even the majority of the pros can’t beat the market. In fact they usually get their butts handed to them

 

[SAJ-99]

American “growth” stocks are purely speculative - you are just guessing what indicator gets the next sucker to buy or sell - when you can trade shares every millisecond there is not a “reality hits” moment. Now the bubble may very well pop, but it will be only loosely tied to true long term business fundementals. If you want to trade where there is a real reality underlying the price trade ag commodities - there is a real S&D that largely trues up every crop season and you may end up with a rail car of grain dumped on your front lawn . But actually don’t - trading ag commodities without deep S&D insights is a lousy bet for the average person.

You take the fun out of everything. I do trade ag commodities. I find them a little more rational than equities for sure. Right now I am just sitting on my hands, which is boring but keeps me from doing something stupid.

 

[Sytes]

Please oh please, only really experienced folk who can afford big losses should ever play the options/futures game. It’s all fun and games until the margin call comes.

Options are a hoot! Straddle, strangle, condor, iron condor... all those fancy Keno play styles! Wait, I didn't mean Keno as in gambling! There is skill involved in selecting your options. Naked options / shorts are ugly business. However, risk/reward.

End of the day, the objective is to play within your budget. If a person is incapable of such, they sure as chit lack the desire to overcome their addiction to gambling via the market and no internet forum personalities are going to sway a gambler until the gambler makes the decision to fix a challenge.

 

[LIK2HNT]

We live in a country that a majority of folks don’t even save enough to max out their employer 401k match

So true.
But maxing out employers 401k match and funding your 401k to the limit is a great way to save for retirement. This is also what a good stock broker/wealth management person is for.

 

[noharleyyet]

If you wanna do really well via some very specific prescience, get elected to congress...easy peasy.

 

[rogerthat]

If you wanna do really well via some very specific prescience, get elected to congress...easy peasy.

Totally not worth it! Guess I will keep underperforming