2022 odds

I assume that you mean calculations based on 2021 results. GoHunt waits until a few months before application deadlines for each state so that you don’t do all your research now and cancel your subscription. Basically they don’t want you to buy one subscription per two years, which could technically be done if they put out data as soon as state reports were available. NM and CO have already published draw info from 2021. There’s no reason that accurate odds and point levels can’t be computed or simulated over some period of weeks(likely hours), but GoHunt will have neither of them available on Christmas( when I do most of my hunt research while sitting on my in-law’s couch).


Short answer: a couple months before the app deadline for the state in question.
 
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ImBillT said:
I assume that you mean calculations based on 2021 results. GoHunt waits until a few months before application deadlines for each state so that you don’t do all your research now and cancel your subscription. Basically they don’t want you to buy one subscription per two years, which could technically be done if they put out data as soon as state reports were available.


Short answer: a couple months before the app deadline for the state in question.
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That makes sense. Thanks for the answer
 
A lot of the states that goHUNT covers doesn’t present the data needed up until a couple months before the deadline! So it isn’t goHUNT fault.
 
BradA said:
A lot of the states that goHUNT covers doesn’t present the data needed up until a couple months before the deadline! So it isn’t goHUNT fault.
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NM and CO are already published, and have been in the past as well, and yet goHUNT, does not update draw odds for those two states until a few months before the application deadline. That is entirely the choice of goHUNT and can’t be blamed on those two states.

I don’t fault goHUNT for doing it the way they do it. They do the work every year, and if you want to benefit from their work every year you need to pay them every year. The way the do it decreases the likelihood that people will try to get two years of info out of one year’s subscription.

All that said, the bulk of my year’s hunting research is done on my in-laws couch over Christmas break. I would be a lot happier if updated NM data was available by then.
 
huntandfly said:
Gohunt also provides harvest statistics/success rate so that has to be after the hunting seasons
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True enough, but they could always put an asterisk and the year beside the harvest data until it can be updated.

I’m also 99% sure that NM harvest stats aren’t published until AFTER THE APPLICATION DEADLINE. I believe you can file a late harvest report up to the application deadline(and cannot apply unless you filed a harvest report for the previous year). So again, at least for NM, and likely for other states, goHUNT’s schedule for releasing updated draw odds is GoHUNT’s decision, and can’t really be blamed on the states.
 
Draw odds from the 2021 season for most western states have been out for months. goHunt does run multiple simulations on a cpl states databases get a better overall picture, NV as an example.

"goHUNT Team
@ Andrew M Something to keep in mind is that we do not predict odds. We provide a very accurate depiction of what occurred in last years draw and you can use that to help you make the best decision for the number of points you have going into this draw. There are too many variables to be able to predict odds, things like tag numbers and applicants can fluctuate from year to year. In saying that, odds are very very good that you will draw this hunt if you have 13 points. Nothing is guaranteed because other applicants jump in and also apply for this unit with max points as well, but looking over trends and odds it's highly likely you will draw."
 
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The Kentucky Boys said:
I'm wandering the same thing. Good luck.
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Looks to me like about half of the states have updated odds already. They have them split into updated and not updated on the draw odds section.

Always funny to see units in places like Wyoming that go from 100% at 2 points in the special to 100% at 6 points purely due to the fact that everyone filters the same things on gohunt and sees the same “overlooked” units in the same year
 
huntandfly said:
Looks to me like about half of the states have updated odds already. They have them split into updated and not updated on the draw odds section.

Always funny to see units in places like Wyoming that go from 100% at 2 points in the special to 100% at 6 points purely due to the fact that everyone filters the same things on gohunt and sees the same “overlooked” units in the same year
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I'm new to the Western game. It's a challenge to figure out all the draw odds.
 
ccc23454 said:
Tip: dont use gohunt, learn how to retrieve data from states yourself. Read each state's regs/app process until you understand them! Then post up pics of your hunt!
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As someone who did that before goHunt, and still does to some extent, particularly in NM, I can tell you that goHunt saves you hundreds of hours in data sorting and calculation. I usually have multiple tabs from state websites open alongside goHunt and do a lot of cross checking, but outside of NM I don’t calculate odds anymore. I just use GoHunt’s numbers and save myself a ton of time. Unfortunately goHunt does some stupid stuff for NM, so you have to be extra careful. I still hand tabulate every hunt code for the species and weapon type I’m interested in in NM, and calculate draw odds for the ones that interest me.
 
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ImBillT said:
As someone who did that before goHunt, and still does to some extent, particularly in NM, I can tell you that goHunt saves you hundreds of hours in data sorting and calculation. I usually have multiple tabs from state websites open alongside goHunt and do a lot of cross checking, but outside of NM I don’t calculate odds anymore. I just use GoHunt’s numbers and save myself a ton of time. Unfortunately goHunt does some stupid stuff for NM, so you have to be extra careful. I still hand tabulate every hunt code for the species and weapon type in NM, and calculate draw odds for the ones that interest me.
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What does gohunt do for NM? I compile it all into my own spreadsheet anyway, never saw the need for gohunt in the land of enchantment
 
Ojito_burrito said:
What does gohunt do for NM? I compile it all into my own spreadsheet anyway, never saw the need for gohunt in the land of enchantment
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They appear to be including the odds of drawing as a fourth choice. For most hunt codes, that really doesn’t change things, but they show positive draw odds for hunt codes with zero NR tags. The only way to draw those would be via fourth choice. If there are leftover tags in the resident or outfitter pools, those tags do not fall to NRs. They go to fourth choice. Putting positive draw odds on those hunt codes leaves you with the impression that placing that hunt as a 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice would help you get the tag, but it absolutely does not. Fourth choice doesn’t take into account any of your first three choices and is simply a quadrant of the state. You could make a hunt code with zero NR tags your 1st choice, leave your fourth choice blank, and there could be 9 NR tags leftover, and you wouldn’t draw it. I believe that tags left over after the fourth choice go on sale as leftovers. There is no mixing of the pools. There was a unit I used to apply for, that no longer has NR tags, that had 15-20 NR applicants last year. I haven’t looked to see what goHunt said about that one.

Edit:I checked two hunt codes for which they had that problem in the past, and in last years odds it showed zero. They may have corrected that issue. Nevertheless I recently heard a podcast with a goHunt employee defending the publishing of positive draw odds for a hunt code with zero NR tags. He, or I, clearly don’t understand how the NM draw works, because to my understanding it is not possible for a NR to draw a tag leftover in the resident pool until it goes to fourth choice, which goHunt does not really address.
 
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Ojito_burrito said:
What does gohunt do for NM? I compile it all into my own spreadsheet anyway, never saw the need for gohunt in the land of enchantment
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I tried to do that for decades with spreadsheets and it was never possible to get accurate odds from the prior year. I could get a general feel for demand, but not for actual odds that reflected the applicant pool of the prior year(s). Everything I tried with spreadsheets was oversimplifying the true historical odds when the system looks at all three choices before it goes on to the next applicant.

As to what goHUNT does for NM, and any state with multiple choices before going to the next persons (AZ, NV, NM), they get the historical applicant data, tag numbers by unit, applicant residency, applicant choices by species, and rerun the draw for that state over 500,000 times to get the most likely probabilities based on the historical applicant data. That process, compared to my spreadsheets, have some pretty big variations, even though general demand trends are pretty easy to see in any methodology.
 
Big Fin said:
I tried to do that for decades with spreadsheets and it was never possible to get accurate odds from the prior year. I could get a general feel for demand, but not for actual odds that reflected the applicant pool of the prior year(s). Everything I tried with spreadsheets was oversimplifying the true historical odds when the system looks at all three choices before it goes on to the next applicant.

As to what goHUNT does for NM, and any state with multiple choices before going to the next persons (AZ, NV, NM), they get the historical applicant data, tag numbers by unit, applicant residency, applicant choices by species, and rerun the draw for that state over 500,000 times to get the most likely probabilities based on the historical applicant data. That process, compared to my spreadsheets, have some pretty big variations, even though general demand trends are pretty easy to see in any methodology.
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You splain it oh so much better than me,Randy.
 
Big Fin said:
I tried to do that for decades with spreadsheets and it was never possible to get accurate odds from the prior year. I could get a general feel for demand, but not for actual odds that reflected the applicant pool of the prior year(s). Everything I tried with spreadsheets was oversimplifying the true historical odds when the system looks at all three choices before it goes on to the next applicant.

As to what goHUNT does for NM, and any state with multiple choices before going to the next persons (AZ, NV, NM), they get the historical applicant data, tag numbers by unit, applicant residency, applicant choices by species, and rerun the draw for that state over 500,000 times to get the most likely probabilities based on the historical applicant data. That process, compared to my spreadsheets, have some pretty big variations, even though general demand trends are pretty easy to see in any methodology.
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I think they actually simulate it many millions of times. I’m not going to bother figuring out the math to get to how many simulations would be required, but just off the top of my head , if you were to examine the tag distribution over a number of iterations for an event that occurred only 1/1000 times, I doubt that 500,000 would be enough to insure accurate numbers.

The reason I do NM by hand is that goHunt doesn’t update NM odds soon enough for me. I do most of my research over the Christmas holiday.

goHunt generally has the most accurate odds out there, and simulation is the best way to get an accurate number for NM(calculating the probability that every applicant may have drawn a higher ranked choice before the choice in question was considered for 17,000 NR applications would be a nightmare), but because things vary from year to year, getting it exact isn’t all that important. I still have some issues with how goHunt has handled NM in the past. A strategy article that incorrectly described the new rounding process, positive draw odds for hunt codes with zero tags, draw odds for an old pronghorn system that was practically unrecognizable to the new one. Why did they even publish pronghorn odds that year?

Another minor issue I have with goHunt in point states is the lack of odds when no one at a particular point level applied the previous year. That’s a weakness of using a simulation. Most of the point states don’t require a simulation to calculate odds. What they should do in my opinion is calculate the hypothetical situation in which you applied for hunt last year that you did not actually apply for. Add one application and calculate the odds. They always offer up the explanation that they don’t predict odds, but showing what would have happened if someone at that point level had applied last year is not predictive.


WHATEVER PROBLEMS I HAVE WITH goHunt, I STILL THINK THEY ARE THE BEST RESEARCH TOOL AVAILABLE. I also think that for most states, if you’re just using information from state websites, you’re either doing a LOT of work, or you’re not getting anything close to the level of information that goHunt puts at your fingertips.
 
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