2022 New Mexico draw results!!!!

[ImBillT]

people tell me I’m wrong, crazy…etc, data doesn’t support my complaint. But I’ll tell you this, I’ve got 20 years of my own data to suggest NM has a very strong bias against solo applicants.

15 years consecutive no archery antelope
12 consecutive years no archery elk
18 consecutive years not being able to draw first or second choice archery deer.

I used to draw my 3 rd choice because the unit always went undersubscribed. But now, not even that. I don’t even get a archery javelina tag with any consistency.

Yes, I’m whining, but as a 45 year resident and a 33 year tax payer that can’t even count on one hunt in his home state, I am going to complain.

The truth is literally the opposite. Solo applicants have better odds than group applicants.

Antelope-well it’s hard to draw a lope tag in NM. Period. Not everyone will in their lifetime. Sorry.

Elk-residents have some VERY high draw odds bull hunts available if they want to put them on their application, and in the very recent past even some 100% draw odds cow hunts. 16d, 34, 36? Well, a lot of us will never draw those. I have never even wasted a choice on my application with one of those.

Deer-you’ve been drawing third choice. Make that your first choice. BOOM you drew a first choice. Although that’s kind of a joke, the point is that there are obviously some hunts you’re willing to go on that you’re drawing. Who cares what choice you made it. Some people put 2’s and 5’s for all three choices. I only make those type units my first choice.

I’ve drawn first choice elk, deer, and antelope in NM, BUT the only one of those with draw odds lower than 10% was the antelope. That first choice elk was my third choice this year. The first choice deer I drew is usually my second choice, but I was unwilling to travel that year so I kept all my deer choices close to home. This is only my second year to draw nothing at all in NM, and the first time I did that, I had only applied for antelope. Although anything is possible with a random system, for a resident to fail to draw an elk tag 12 consecutive years suggests that he is aiming fairly high and/or is doing something wrong like failing to submit harvest reports.

 

[ImBillT]

Serious question for the peanut gallery, has there ever been an audit of their process? I know, no single applicant has enough data to prove non-randomness… but the burden of proof of randomness should be on them. If I was them I’d advertise the quality of the draw process front and center.

If in fact there was said quality to advertise

The only way to “prove randomness” would be to look at the code. Theoretically the outputs could not tell you whether it was random or not. In a truly random system you could theoretically flip a coin heads-up 100 times in a row. People often identify patterns and decide that means it wasn’t random, but they are wrong. When looking at the code, you’d then need some definition of what you would accept as random. A random number generator is not actually random, but rather highly controlled, and doing nothing other than following instructions. A good random number generator simulates randomness well enough.

 

[ImBillT]

I’ve been shifting my strategy in NM slightly the last few years. I used to view NM as an opportunity state, and only applied in three other states for things that were very hard to draw(I’ve since added two more states, specifically for opportunity). Some years all three of my choices were for what people called “opportunity hunts” but my first choice was still a better hunt than my third. With multiple rifle elk hunts over 50% draw odds and numerous rifle deer hunts with 100% odds, I could hunt those bottom tier units over and over and learn them. Last year my historically 100% odds deer unit dropped to less than 50%, and it’s probably below that this year. The last two times I hunted it, I seriously considered taking it off of my application. Whoever drew it this year will likely not enjoy themselves too much…It’s a royal PIA to hunt. With deer points in AZ, CO, and UT, I’m getting to the point where I don’t not have any interest in pounding my head against a wall dealing with limited public land, nightmare access, and 3-5 encounters/year with landowners claiming that they own state trust land, when I could just go hunt in another state. I’m starting to lean toward only applying for the mid-tier and up in NM for deer.

For elk, there are multiple units in CO that I can draw 2/3 years for first rifle, every year for second rifle cow, or every year OTC bull, AND every year second rifle deer ALL IN THE SAME UNIT, with BETTER harvest success and BETTER trophy potential than the bottom tier of elk in NM, and the bottom tier has gone from 50%+ draw odds(1/2 years) to 20% draw odds(1/5 years). Which mediocre unit will I learn the best? The one in CO.

So I’m torn. Do I keep omitting bottom tier hunts as my third choice? Not somewhere I’ve never been! I won’t draw them often enough to learn anything. What about the places I have been? Some of them were pretty awful. Some can no longer be drawn(changed rounding rules that didn’t put one single tag in a residents pocket, but costs NMGF around $.5M in revenue each year since the change). Some I would still go on, but they aren’t great hunts. What’s the problem with only putting mid-tier and top tier hunts on my app? Well, at $79 in license and stamp fees, and $13/species app fees that’s $920 in fees(not including the tag) the year that I finally draw my current second choice deer tag, and about $1840 in fees(again, not including the tag) the year that I finally draw a mid-tier elk tag. There are likely better ways to spend money. Then again, I like NM, and will have a hard time not applying there, so I’m back at my original quandary. Change strategy to only aiming for the top, or keep throwing bottom of the barrel units on my app even though the frequency of of drawing them is getting pretty darn low.

I wouldn’t change anything about the NM draw system. It’s just unfortunate that demand has gone up so much, especially for the really marginal hunts. That’s not a system issue, but it does devalue hunts that were already of low value.

I’m actually kinda glad I didn’t draw anything in NM this year because I applied before some changes were announced to our deer season here at home. The combination of our season change, and the lack of drawing in NM actually opens up my schedule to attempt some exciting things in CO and AZ that I had been putting on the back burner and without a change to our deer season, or a loss of access, I would probably never actually have tried those exciting things. So, I’m actually really excited, AND it doesn’t involve me loosing access to deer hunting at home.

 

[hank4elk]

Nuevo Mexico no bueno. No mas sombrero's grande.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

All my refunds are on my card as pending. That is fast. Other states need to take notes.

Same, yes other states are just way far behind NM!
Matt

 

[ImBillT]

Same, yes other states are just way far behind NM!
Matt

Nothing here yet, But I don’t think they’ve ever been as fast as they seem to be this year. Good job NM.

 

[Stocker]

Looking at my NM draw every single year.

 

[gburk]

The only way to “prove randomness” would be to look at the code. Theoretically the outputs could not tell you whether it was random or not. In a truly random system you could theoretically flip a coin heads-up 100 times in a row. People often identify patterns and decide that means it wasn’t random, but they are wrong. When looking at the code, you’d then need some definition of what you would accept as random. A random number generator is not actually random, but rather highly controlled, and doing nothing other than following instructions. A good random number generator simulates randomness well enough.

agreed, NMDGF would need to provide code and process details to an auditor; it would not be a matter of examining outputs.

 

[Zim]

Had the luxury of saving my coin and passing this year since I'm cashing my Colorado elk points. Congrats to those who drew. NM sure has changed since I cut my teeth elk hunting there back in the 90's. 90% NR odds to 6%. I wonder if the newbies today can even comprehend how it used to be. Glad I planned ahead and have plenty of points to cash these days to guarantee me something somewhere annually. Miss NM though. It's been so long, 2011 since I drew. Was an awesome state back in the day.

 

[Nick87]

$19,500 for the landowner tag in the unit I want to draw. Why is it more expensive, than a guided hunt in that unit? Granted I'll never do a guided hunt in the lower 48, I would think that most would.

 

[hank4elk]

I can just imagine what they will go for this year. From what I have seen in past the outfitters charge 4 times what they pay for one.
Outfitter welfare.

 

[Nick87]

I can just imagine what they will go for this year. From what I have seen in past the outfitters charge 4 times what they pay for one.
Outfitter welfare.

I thought you could get a Gila outfitted hunt for like $12,000 ? Tag included no?

 

[Nick87]

Well how much are they Hank?

 

[hank4elk]

I thought you could get a Gila outfitted hunt for like $12,000 ? Tag included no?

maybe 5 years ago. I heard of tags in 16 & 15 going for $10-15k last year. I also heard of reasonable guided hunts, you know ,$8k .
10 years ago it was $3500 for guided hunt with LO tags.

 

[hank4elk]

Well how much are they Hank?

I have no idea. LO will not get tags ,if they do, until June.
One look at RS or MM and you can get an idea. I can only guess what BMO is asking for a so called hunt.

 

[Nick87]

I have no idea. LO will not get tags ,if they do, until June.
One look at RS or MM and you can get an idea. I can only guess what BMO is asking for a so called hunt.

Hunters domain had the tag for $19,500

 

[hank4elk]

Hunters domain had the tag for $19,500

never heard of em...you should see the color glossy mags I got sent, because I am a small ranch owner. Every high dollar slick willy outfit there is.

 

[Nick87]

never heard of em

First place that came up when I Googled NM landowner tags. I've heard of them before, but they must not exist if you haven't heard of them.

 

[cahunter805]

Hunters domain had the tag for $19,500

That’s probably about the going rate for a UW Gila tag these days because people will pay it.

 

[Nick87]

That’s probably about the going rate for a UW Gila tag these days because people will pay it.

Should've done it years ago when it was 30% less at that point I thought it was nuts.