2022 Draw Odds- a poll

[Valley1320]

Im NM I think it will stay about the same. Cuz I think alot of pple used stimulus money to put in or by hunting equipment. I know 3 or 4 guys that hadn't put in for hunts in years, (they have hunted private for years) but they all decided to put them and there kids in for a bunch of draws last year, and none of them drew a thing. Most of them acted like they wernt going to put in this next year. But who knows.. never know what pple will do What I have noticed is the increased interest in bowhunting around here of guys that use to rifle hunt. Sadly its the type of guys that if they wound one and don't find it or keep looking for it til they see it alive and well; they will jus keep hunting

 

[SPDSpappy]

Only reason I put better was I'm hopeful more countries will open up to vaccinated Americans to be able to hunt again, leaving more opportunities for out of the country hunting for folks again. I believe this is one of the major drivers people here have been more focused on trying to get tags out west.

 

[TOGIE]

can't imagine they'll get better. i suspect it's just a question of how much worse. of course there will be outliers on both sides in a handful of units in every state.

it was eye opening seeing a some elk units in colorado that have always had piles of leftovers by the beginning of the season be sold out or nearly sold out after the secondary draw. i have a feeling we'll at the least be seeing that again.

i am worried about the deer unit i'm not ready to be done with yet - far too many unique unexplored areas in that unit to want to try a new one yet. it was roughly like a 50/50 second choice unit several years ago, was 75% first choice this season, and i'm scared/have a feeling it'll be 50/50 1st choice for the 2022 season.

 

[SPDSpappy]

can't imagine they'll get better. i suspect it's just a question of how much worse. of course there will be outliers on both sides in a handful of units in every state.

it was eye opening seeing a some elk units in colorado that have always had piles of leftovers by the beginning of the season be sold out or nearly sold out after the secondary draw. i have a feeling we'll at the least be seeing that again.

i am worried about the deer unit i'm not ready to be done with yet - far too many unique unexplored areas in that unit to want to try a new one yet. it was roughly like a 50/50 second choice unit several years ago, was 75% first choice this season, and i'm scared/have a feeling it'll be 50/50 1st choice for the 2022 season.

I wonder if we hunt some of the same elk areas (12?). There's normally ~2000 leftover bull tags there every year after 1st lottery and hundreds before the start of the hunt, but this year, they were ALL gone by 2nd lottery.

 

[ImBillT]

I suspect money will be a little tighter for a lot of people. Draw odds could be A LOT WORSE than 2018 and still be better than 2021. I don’t see too many more people jumping in, so I’m going with somewhere between slightly better and about the same.

 

[Mallardsx2]

Maybe people wont have "free covid money" to apply this year. I think a LOT of people pissed away their covid money on tags.

 

[Trial153]

Worse

 

[Deleted member 16014]

Listening to the commission meeting in the background, WY NR elk apps up @ 8%.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

What am I missing with all this free covid $ talk? I hear it blamed for everything "Boats/pickups/campers/trailers/tractors/ATVs/etc prices are crazy with all people spending their Covid money on it".

Are you guys talking about the $600 around '21 new years and the $1400 in March? I have a hard time seeing how people just couldn't afford or justify spending $ for all this stuff but a couple thousand bucks puts them on a spending spree.

 

[runningmt]

What am I missing with all this free covid $ talk? I hear it blamed for everything "Boats/pickups/campers/trailers/tractors/ATVs/etc prices are crazy with all people spending their Covid money on it".

Are you guys talking about the $600 around '21 new years and the $1400 in March? I have a hard time seeing how people just couldn't afford or justify spending $ for all this stuff but a couple thousand bucks puts them on a spending spree.

Unlikely because of stimulus $

More likely, lock downs, reduced opportunities for travel, etc. meant people had extra $ to spend on other things.

 

[brownbear932008]

What am I missing with all this free covid $ talk? I hear it blamed for everything "Boats/pickups/campers/trailers/tractors/ATVs/etc prices are crazy with all people spending their Covid money on it".

Are you guys talking about the $600 around '21 new years and the $1400 in March? I have a hard time seeing how people just couldn't afford or justify spending $ for all this stuff but a couple thousand bucks puts them on a spending spree.

Oh that is only what us peasants received. Many businesses owners made bank on the covid funds. My neighbor received over 80k for a tiny water line business he owns and his sister received over 1 million in handouts in the handful of companies she owns. None of them severely damaged due to covid.

 

[Oak]

Oh that is only what us peasants received. Many businesses owners made bank on the covid funds. My neighbor applied for and received over 80k for a tiny water line business he owns and his sister applied for and received over 1 million in handouts in the handful of companies she owns. None of them severely damaged due to covid.

Not trying to derail the conversation, but I think the above is probably more accurate.

 

[8andcounting]

Not trying to derail the conversation, but I think the above is probably more accurate.

Still a handout , doesn’t make it less of one cuz you had to apply

 

[Stocker]

 

[Pucky Freak]

What am I missing with all this free covid $ talk? I hear it blamed for everything "Boats/pickups/campers/trailers/tractors/ATVs/etc prices are crazy with all people spending their Covid money on it".

Are you guys talking about the $600 around '21 new years and the $1400 in March? I have a hard time seeing how people just couldn't afford or justify spending $ for all this stuff but a couple thousand bucks puts them on a spending spree.

My family has 3 young kids. Payments for the 5 of us including the refundable child tax credit and state-level COVID bonuses came out to about $20,000 extra. I am the breadwinner, and didn't miss any time off work, so the 20k is just extra money we can do whatever with. My wife and I opted to use a large majority of this $ to pay down our mortgage. We also bought a new TV, a new chest freezer, a little bit towards a used vehicle, and some money towards our family Yellowstone trip this summer. Take our situation and times it by 100 million families in America or whatever and I can easily see how inflation and demand for goods is up so high.

 

[Bullshot]

I can see 2023 being a bit of a backslide year if inflation continues to rage, fuel remains high, stimulus becomes a distant memory, and the world opens up more travel options. Worst case, a major recession strikes.

But the die is already cast for this year….. WORSE.

 

[hearteater]

I must be stupid…. go to a good college, get a good job, work hard… Watch a lot of other people get “free” money while I owe more than ever in taxes.

 

[gouch]

Are we talking about over all odds or personal odds? Over all odds is just a ratio of the total number of applicants to the total number of tags. Personal odds will depend on how many points you have, what hunt you apply for and how many other people with the same number or more points apply for that hunt. Those are the only odds I worry about. If thousands of people decide to throw their hat in the ring for the first time because they got a covid check then it will have an affect on the over all odds but no real affect on my personal odds because they just won't have the point total. I only apply in my home state and my personal odds this year are slightly better on one hunt, but still not good and exactly the same on all other hunts. Good thing there are OTC hunts that I like.

 

[TN_Rifle_Junkie]

Personally, my odds are awsome in MT Elk having 3 PP. Overall though with all the law changes, worse. I am hopeful that WY can fall in line with the rest of the west an get that 90/10 thing worked out for my future hunting plans. I would like to still be able to hunt somwthing nice there in a couple years.

 

[LostinOregon1]

Depends on the state and species. WY will be up because everyone is worried about 90/10. Colorado will be flatter for deer due to the hype of season dates last year and the lack of mature deer that were found. I do think CO deer may see a shift from one unit to another based on last year. MT will be up due to changes in the structure and outfitter tags. UT will show a gradual increase as always. NV will be up a bit is my guess. I have talked to some folks who are feeling the crunch of inflation as of late and I am guessing that may have an impact the later the application season is for each state. Just my thoughts.

Rich