Congrats on her bird, hes a pretty one....one thing Ive learned over the yrs of hunting turkeys on public land...never leave a gobbling bird for later. To many variables come into play
I love these discussions. You guys way overthink it.....which might be worth it, if even under the best scenario the draw odds didn't suck. Put in and u either draw or you dont...crunching the numbers leads to people getting butt hurt when they dont draw even though they think they should based...
all different setups all public land, got responses at 4 out of 7 stops in the am which filled the tags we had for R7 then moved to R5. It got windy but got some going on adjacent private and out of nowhere 8 jakes walked in.
I just put in for where I want to hunt....and wait. some times its 25+yrs and sometimes its a lot shorter. Chasing draw odds doesnt work IMO plus you end up in a unit you dont have any info on.
There's really only two drawing statistics... 0% and 100%...the breakdown in bonus point drawing success changes every year and is really just to make people feel better about waiting 18 yrs to draw a tag..or drawing it your first try
I would set up between the roost and your red circle
....Go there the evening before and roost them so you know which trees they are in...like specifically which trees. Then next morning move in well before light and set up within 100yds. If you can find where they are flying down to set up...
We had a very good opening day running and gunning in eastern Montana in R5 and R7. We got weathered out on day 2 with wind and snow but no complaints jsut means I get to go back to try and fill a few more tags
The way to go with TSS is handloading. My handload 3" #9 tss shells run about $5 a rnd, expensive yes but I probably spend more per day on coffee and snacks
Ive been handloading TSS for about 7yrs now. My current handload is 1.5 oz of #9 tss in two 20ga setups. Both put 330-340 pellets in the 10" at 40yds. Its expensive but well worth it imo
I support it, I think any tag with less than a 10% chance should be once in a lifetime. But with the low number of tags and large number of applicants I dont see it having much of an effect on the odds.