ID nonres sheep/Moose/Goat apps?

[DFS]

You are correct. I just reviewed all NR Idaho ram odds in GoHunt and Toprut, side by side. Gohunt is consistently showing 2-3x better NR ram odds than Toprut. Several units showing as high as 1.4%, 1.7%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 2.8% at GoHunt. But all NR ram hunt codes are 0.2-0.7% at Toprut.

The guy that heads GoHunt data & analytics only has a 2 year business degree from a community college (not joking). But his resume does say he focused on math/stats while obtaining that associates degree.

The Toprut guy also lacks a formal statistics education, but I'm inclined to believe that Toprut has more of the Idaho NR nuances modeled out correctly. I believe GoHunt is only handling this mildly better than the 3rd grade statistician putting together the charts at Idaho F&G showing 8%+ draw odds for many units.

Another possibility is that Idaho F&G (learning from AZ GFD) has a promotional contract with GoHunt. GoHunt NR ram draw odds of up to 2.8% are going to lead to many more $330 transactions than truth would dictate.

I have not reviewed GoHunt odds for NR moose and NR mt goat, but my guess is that you should divide all of those by 2-3 also.

The way nonresidents are getting curb stomped in western states their services might not be needed for much longer. Higher draw odds will give people hope. Hope makes people keep subscribing and applying.

 

[CMF]

You are correct. I just reviewed all NR Idaho ram odds in GoHunt and Toprut, side by side. Gohunt is consistently showing 2-3x better NR ram odds than Toprut. Several units showing as high as 1.4%, 1.7%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 2.8% at GoHunt. But all NR ram hunt codes are 0.2-0.7% at Toprut.

The one reason I lean toward Gohunt being more accurate is the cap at a hunt code level. I don't remember the exact numbers, but for example, there were hunt codes with 300 nr applications and some with 20 nr apps. If a tag is drawn in the hunt code w/300 apps, that's it, all other 299 nr apps are tossed out. If that happens in a few of the higher-demand hunt codes, which would be more likely to happen, it seems your odds could be significantly higher in a code with 20 apps. According to some comments I read over there, they run simulations to determine this.

 

[popeyoung12]

In for sheep.

 

[ImBillT]

I wonder if you can accurately calculate Idaho’s NR draw odds for MSG. NR and Rs are drawn from the same tag pool. NRs can draw up to 10% but aren’t guaranteed any tags.

The steps are if a NR is drawn from the pool:
1. Has the 10% NR quota been met. (6 tags for 3,014 NR Sheep in 2022)
2. Are there tags available for the unit. (Number 1 percentage against unit draw odds which includes residents)

Once number 1 has been met, all NRs are out of the draw.

I think the true draw odds are way less than IDFG publishes on its website. Or it could be much better depending on what NR tags are drawn first. If 11 and 37 are drawn first, it eliminates a lot of NRs from the 10% pool.

I’m back to thinking it’s very hard to get accurate NR draw odds for Idaho MSG.

The only way NR’s would be likely to get less than 10% is if they were less than 10% of the applicant pool which is practically never the case. Thats why most states with “up to” X% show NR’s getting X% on almost every hunt code. Therefore, draw odds shouldn’t be crazy hard to calculate. That said, goHunt seems more likely to be correct when there is a discrepancy.

 

[BAKPAKR]

Idaho is still a sublime, gritty, bitter taste in my mouth...
View attachment 271000
.... it lingers so.

I missed this photo. During Labor Day week 2008, a 36”ish bull was standing in the middle of that stream just out of the lower right frame, with the sights of my 500 S&W on him. Although it was towards the end of that trip, I let him walk as I was returning the first week of October.

 

[Hotrodlincoln]

Results are in…

 

[popeyoung12]

No sheep for me. Still have 16 sheep draws left.

 

[ashersdad]

No moose for me or my brother.

 

[jdf]

No mountain goat for me..
Was hoping to same unit as my elk and mule deer tags. Lol

 

[jpcoll01]

Something messed up, I didn’t get a moose tag.

 

[brymoore]

 

[txco]

Im in but seriously debating on quitting with how the costs are getting.

 

[DFS]

Im in but seriously debating on quitting with how the costs are getting.

Didn’t you draw two moose tags last year?

 

[BAKPAKR]

Didn’t you draw two moose tags last year?

And, a statewide CO mule deer tag! With luck like that, I am surprised @txco didn’t draw ID sheep this year.

 

[txco]

Didn’t you draw two moose tags last year?

Yes. I was blessed last year no doubt.

But at some point rising costs & worsening statistics take over. For example I didnt put in for WY sheep bison and moose this year for the first time in 15 years with all the tag and allocation cuts.

 

[txco]

And, a statewide CO mule deer tag! With luck like that, I am surprised @txco didn’t draw ID sheep this year.

3 more sheep draws to go! Theres still a chance!

 

[ImBillT]

Anyone get their refund yet?

 

[TheTone]

Anyone get their refund yet?

The state controllers office typically isn’t very fast; plus the state controller did a huge system update last year that’s had some difficulties

 

[44hunter45]

The state controllers office typically isn’t very fast; plus the state controller did a huge system update last year that’s had some difficulties

Gotta get every possible penny in interest on all that money!

 

[ImBillT]

The state controllers office typically isn’t very fast; plus the state controller did a huge system update last year that’s had some difficulties

Just making sure I’m not the only one.