WY Second Chance Probabilties

[Windjammer]

Hi all, after a lot of research using forum keyword sources and the WY State website, I'm still a little bit murky on understanding second chance draw probabilities. I currently have 0 preference points, which means I'll need to build them for the next few years to have a shot at a "sought after" southwestern unit. In the meantime I'd like to get some boots on the ground in the privateland heavy units, and just learn the ropes so that I'm ready years from now when its time for a chance at a big buck.

With that in mind, I plan to put in this year for an impossible to get (with 0 pref. points) unit with my first choice to get a preference point, and then use my second choice to get something in the East. I am not fully understanding second choice probabilities, and I'm interested in advice if any of you could help me decipher these reports.

Using this demand report for 2018 non resident antelope as a reference... https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/Drawing Odds/DRAW_ANT_RD_NONRES_2018.pdf

Unit 1 had a total quota of 47 with 61 first choice applicants... So 0 second chance applicants would get drawn here, correct?
Unit 25 had a quota of 106, and had 86 first choice applicants. So in this case 20 second chance applicants would have gotten drawn.
Am I interpreting this correctly? Being that I won't get anything in the preference point draws, I want to make sure I actually understand the second choice probabilities as I decide where to put in for.

My other question is about over the counter tags... Is there a set window that those leftovers (for units where they are available...) can be purchased? Or can those be purchased all the way into the season if they don't get snapped up for certain units?

Thanks for any advice on this! This forum has been a great resource to date, I'm just still a little bit unclear on this matter

 

[Topgun 30-06]

You are spot on with your analysis so far. What you may not know is that after you go into the PP draw that everyone goes into first no matter whether they have any PPs or not the ones who don't draw then go in to the Random Draw where everyone is given a second number and tags are drawn without PPs coming into play. Therefore, you could actually get lucky and get a tag in that second draw. Anyone who draws a tag in that draw would lose the PPs they have accumulated just like they would have in the original PP Draw. If you are one that doesn't draw in either then you would get a chance to draw your second choice tag only IF there are any tags left after all firat choice applicants were satisfied. Wyoming has now gone to a second draw for the tags that remain after the initial draws, so if you don't draw in the others you'll be apply apply in that draw for a unit that has remaining tags. If you don't draw a tag in that one then the remaining tags, if any, go first come first serve online starting at a given time and date. Sometimes those tags go within the first minute, but in any event the leftovers are available in each unit until sold out or the season there ends.

 

[Washington Hunter]

If you look at the 2018 leftover draw odds, and look for the units that had tags available, that will give you a good idea which units you could draw as a second choice in the first draw.

 

[Windjammer]

Thanks so much Washington and TopGun, I really appreciate it. Good to know I'm on the right track, and thanks for helping me zero in on in a little bit better.

I do have another, much more basic question regarding fees. My plan this year is to put in for a "top" unit with option 1, then use option 2 to get a likely draw on a "non-desirable" unit. Where does the $326 regular antelope license fee come in in that scenario? Do I pay it even though I likely won't be a part of that hunt? Or does one only pay license fees for the hunts that he or she actually gets? I.e. with my current plan of putting in year after year to gain preference points, am I paying $326 each year, or only on the year where I finally achieve that option one regular antelope tag? As long as I'm hunting does am I ONLY paying the reduced fee ($30-something) even if I am putting in unsuccessfully for a regular buck tag?

I know this is super basic, and with all of the research I've done I'm almost embarrassed to ask that question. But it seems to be such a basic question that I haven't seen it articulated clearly.

Thank you all again for your advice. Being a South Carolina guy living in the Midwest its been a lot of information to wrap my brain around the last couple of months. I'm getting there though..

 

[LCH]

You pay the full license fee when you apply, then if unsuccessful you get a refund (minus $15 application fee).

 

[jt13]

If you look at the 2018 leftover draw odds, and look for the units that had tags available, that will give you a good idea which units you could draw as a second choice in the first draw.

This is correct, especially for units that have difficult access. However I have noticed a swinging pattern in some areas where they seem to have leftovers every other year so it can hurt to also look back a year or two into the older draw odds to see if theres a pattern.

Also don't let the oddball tags scare you "within 1/2 mile of irrigated land" or "north of road A and south of road B". Just check them out on OnX and make sure theres some access and some habitat.

 

[Washington Hunter]

You might want to look at the 2019 Application booklet, especially page 4 which has non-resident application dates and the fees required when submitting your applications.

https://wgfd.wyo.gov/Hunting/WGFD_APPNARRATIVE.pdf

I'm not sure if you realize it, but your buck license application will be separate from your reduced price license application. Looks like it's $341 to apply for the buck license, and if you don't draw, you'll be refunded all but the $15 application fee. If you have a second choice like you mentioned that's a sure draw, then you'll obviously draw your second choice buck license and won't get a refund. Same thing for your reduced price application, except of course it's only $49 for that one.

 

[MessyTessy]

Also, there are no predictive draw odds. Just because a tag was 2nd choice last year, doesn’t mean it will be second choice this year.

 

[WapitiBob]

The leftover odds have nothing to do with 2nd choice odds.

If you want estimated 2nd choice odds you look at the random draw demand reports. Leftover licenses are post 3rd choice.

 

[Washington Hunter]

The leftover odds have nothing to do with 2nd choice odds.

If you want estimated 2nd choice odds you look at the random draw demand reports. Leftover licenses are post 3rd choice.

I wasn't saying leftover odds had anything to do with second choice odds, just that any licenses that have availability in the leftover draw are ones that you could draw as second choices in the first draw. Is that not correct?

 

[Brittany Chukarman]

I believe only licenses left after the 3rd choice in the random would make it into the leftover draw so that comparison could be incomplete.

 

[Topgun 30-06]

I wasn't saying leftover odds had anything to do with second choice odds, just that any licenses that have availability in the leftover draw are ones that you could draw as second choices in the first draw. Is that not correct?

That is correct. The only time tags go as leftovers is after all choices have been filled in all the drawings. Then if there are still tags available after everyone that had that tag down as any of their three choices drew they would go as first come first serve as a leftover. The Type 2 antelope tag in unit 23 that is just for private land would be a good example because there are leftover tags even after the season starts and ends.

 

[madtom]

 

[LopeHunter]

That is correct. The only time tags go as leftovers is after all choices have been filled in all the drawings. Then if there are still tags available after everyone that had that tag down as any of their three choices drew they would go as first come first serve as a leftover. The Type 2 antelope tag in unit 23 that is just for private land would be a good example because there are leftover tags even after the season starts and ends.

I thought the NR Special has a separate bucket of tags from NR Regular and from Resident and each bucket acts independently of the others. If the NR Special has tags left over after the 3rd Draw yet the NR Regular used up all Regular allotment of tags during the 3rd draw then don't the leftover NR Special tags fall into Leftover Draw rather than go to Regular applicants that were unsuccessful for that unit? Same with the Resident draw where tags do not go back and forth to NR pools but would fall into Leftover.

 

[Topgun 30-06]

I thought the NR Special has a separate bucket of tags from NR Regular and from Resident and each bucket acts independently of the others. If the NR Special has tags left over after the 3rd Draw yet the NR Regular used up all Regular allotment of tags during the 3rd draw then don't the leftover NR Special tags fall into Leftover Draw rather than go to Regular applicants that were unsuccessful for that unit? Same with the Resident draw where tags do not go back and forth to NR pools but would fall into Leftover.

Resident tags are drawn first and if there are any tags left after all three choices have been filled they go to the initial NR Draw unless things have changed. As you mentioned, the tags that are left after the initial draws then go into that second draw that is random and where everyone applies no matter their residency status. After that second random draw is held for everyone that applies in a short time frame and there are still tags left those remaining tags go up for grabs as leftovers on a first come first serve basis and again residency status doesn't play into it.

 

[WapitiBob]

For antelope, res draw first and their leftovers get added to the bulk nr allocation.

 

[Windjammer]

Okay, this makes so much more sense now.. The state of WY does a great job of putting all of the information out there, but its been a bear to sort through. This back and forth here has already helped me get a much better grasp on it all. Thanks so much all, I really appreciate the conversation. And Washington, I was not entirely clear on the two completely separate applications for regular vs. reduced price. I'd seen that written in the regs, but hadn't fully wrapped by brain around that. So thank you for clarifying that as well.

 

[Hankg]

Randy has a video out there, YouTube maybe?, that explains the Wyoming draw. After watching it I felt that I had a pretty good grasp how the process works.